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Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:11 AM

Nate Silver: 538 Update is 73.6% for Obama today

Down 0.8% from yesterday, but that may be insignificant statistical variation.

I thought Obama might go up a point or so today because of the good Virginia poll.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

17 replies, 3893 views

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:11 AM

1. Still looking fantastic.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:13 AM

2. What about the storm??

What's the plan for getting our voters to the polls if the storm has major impacts on heavily-Democratic areas such as Philadelphia?

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:20 AM

3. I didn't think PA had early voting?

does it?

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Response to mary195149 (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:25 AM

4. I don't believe so

But if the damage, etc. is so extensive, poorer folks in inner-city Philadelphia may not be able (or frankly even willing) to get to the polls on Nov. 6. I mean, if your home/condo/apartment has been reduced to firewood and you've lost everything you own, you're probably not going to think a whole lot about going to vote.

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Response to mary195149 (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:40 AM

5. Nope.

This archaic state has no early voting.

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Response to mary195149 (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:50 AM

8. No, the Repubs here wouldn't allow something like this.

The storm should be well passed by election day. I just pray there is no lives lost and no major destruction.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:44 AM

6. Do you know when he'll be posting a blog update explaining the change?

Unless the one from 5:16 PM was the update, in which case ignore this.

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Response to FVZA_Colonel (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:54 AM

10. Sometimes Nate just sends a Tweet explaining the update

On his 538 Twitter account.

He doesn't always write a full blog post when the Model only changes by 1%.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #10)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:55 AM

11. I guess I haven't paid as much attention as I should.

Thanks.

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Response to golfguru (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:53 AM

9. Gallop again. I think we just need to discredit them. n/t

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Response to golfguru (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:57 AM

12. The fact that Obama is taking such wild swings in Gallup's approval

May be a clue that their Obama-Romney numbers are off.

For example, it's not just that Gallup all of a sudden has Obama's approval so low, it's that only a week or so ago it was at a yearly high of 53 or 54%. Now it's plunged to 46%? What happened over the course of the past week to cause that?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #12)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:05 AM

14. And given that so many others seemed to show him gaining ground around the country,

if in voting leads only and not job-approval numbers as well, it really does seem to indicate that something's off with their numbers.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 29, 2012, 01:28 AM

17. Only one item I can think of is Benghazi n/t

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:58 AM

13. Every two days forward, expect one back.

I don't see the move being that significant. There were good gains the past couple of days, so a pull back should be expected.

I wouldn't worry unless it goes below 70%

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:18 AM

15. Gallup is deja vu all over again!

I seem to remember them having insane swings about this time the last three elections.

I do not trust them or rasmussen. Don't really trust any of them, but they're the worst. Oh and maybe gravis.

Oh well.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:24 AM

16. Now I see why Obama decreased slightly in the forecast and in OHIO

Didn't see this poll reported today, but Nate posted it. Turns out the U. of Cincinnati published an Ohio poll showing a TIE. Obama dropped to 73% for Ohio.

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675


But Obama's odds of winning Virginia went up to 60% because of the good Washington Post Virginia poll.


Also looks like there was a poll for Nevada by something called Callfire showing Obama +4 that raised Obama to 80%.

https://www.callfire.com/sites/default/files/pdf/press/NEVADA_PRES_POLL.pdf

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