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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:25 PM

IBD/TIPP Confirms Romney only strong in the south.

from a Daily Kos diary:


First of all, fuck Gallup. Obama has gone from 53% approval to them, down to 46% in a matter of a few days for no reason at all.

Anyway, on to the point of this diary. New poll from IBD/TIPP just out today shows Obama ahead by 2.1%. http://news.investors.com/...

Their write-up and regional breakdown below.


"

Day 19: Oct. 27, 2012
Obama: +2.1
Obama 46.6% | Romney 44.5%
Obama continues to hold a 2- point lead in our recent polls, showing that Romney still has ground to make up among key demographic groups.
Among all women, Obama's lead is now 14 points - the largest gender divide since we began polling.
Men prefer Romney by 11 points.
While Romney runs comfortably ahead among white voters, he consistently shows deficits of close to 90 points with black voters, and 30 points or more among Hispanics.
Romney currently holds a 4-point edge over Obama with upper-income households and a 2-point edge with those described as middle-income, meaning Obama's ground game in getting lower-income and poor voters to cast ballots may be the deciding factor in the election."
But more importantly, I'd thought I'd show you their regional breakdown:
OVERALL
46.6% Obama
44.5% Romney
5.7% Not Sure

REGION
Northeast
51% Obama
38% Romney
7% Not Sure

Midwest
51% Obama
43% Romney
5% Not Sure

South
39% Obama
52% Romney
5% Not sure

West
52% Obama
39% Romney
7% Not Sure

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1151190/-IBD-TIPP-Confirms-Romney-only-strong-in-the-south

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:29 PM

1. Regional #s don't add up. Those regional margins would suggest a bigger lead for

Obama. Up by 13% in West and East plus 8% in Midwest would produce national lead in mid-single digits.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:30 PM

2. The south as a region is larger and more populated that is why they are growing in

electoral votes while the North & Midwest lose electoral votes. So they do poll more people. But I also think pollsters may over sample the south, too.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:39 PM

3. The regional numbers are still deceptive.

Who cares how large Romney's lead is in the South overall when that doesn't tell us much about how he's doing in FL/VA (the only two southern states that appear to matter)? Who cares how far up the president is in the West if that lead comes almost entirely from CA/WA/OR and tells us little to nothing about NV/CO (again, the only two in the region that matter much this year). NH makes up little of the "East". Either candidate could be way up there and it wouldn't impact the regional number.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:42 PM

4. Still, the margin in East and West alone would more than cancel out deficit

in South. Something doesn't add up.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 03:10 PM

7. They must be oversampling the southeast.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 03:14 PM

8. Remember, the national poll numbers are LIKELY voters. We don't know if the regional breakdowns

Are filtered through that as well. It could be the regional breakdowns are just registered voters.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:54 PM

5. If the west and midwest numbers are accurate

This election is going to be a LANDSLIDE!!!!!! Seems to support what we are hearing about Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, WIsconsin and the United State of Ohio. YESSSSS.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 03:00 PM

6. Gallup shows the same thing.

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