51.47% O 48.53% R EV: 281 O 257 R

[courseofhistory]

51.47% O 48.53% R EV: 281 O 257 R

[IMG][/IMG]

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

As of 10/27/12 [/CENTER]

[Robbins]

1. Well

This kind figures Into how I view the final popular vote going It still In my oporion overestimates Romney In Swing states.Romney
winning Colorado,Virginia,NC,and Florida I don't see It.Could I imagne Romney winning the 3 2008 Obama southern states.Yes but not
Colorado.If I am wrong and this Is the electoral map we will see the autobail and the bain attacks as what won It for Obama.

[Blue Idaho]

2. 87% Chance of Obama Victory?

I'll take that.

[blazeKing]

3. I really don't see VA going Romney

But either way, a win is a win!

[Robbins]

4. Me neither

If Obama only wins 1 of his 3 southern states from 2008 It will be Virginia.

Nate SIlver last time I checked has Romney picking up 3 Obama 2008 states-Indiana,NC,Florida.The rest stay with Obama that
voted for him In 2008.

[TroyD]

9. Yes, although to be precise Nate has Virginia as a Toss Up

It is not in Obama's column yet.

And Colorado, while tilting Obama, is also a bit unknown at this point.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin & Ohio look pretty good.

[courseofhistory]

5. I tend to agree

but I think giving it to Romney is the worse case scenario.

[Wounded Bear]

7. I agree, that map looks like WCS.....nt

[Wounded Bear]

6. There are several red states on that map.....

that I suspect will actually be blue come Nov 6.

I still see over 300 EV for Obama IMHO.

[SLCLiberal]

8. That EC map

Is exactly how I predict the election will go.

Guess we'll see...

[TroyD]

10. Interesting that they give Obama an 87% chance of winning

Which is 13% higher than Nate Silver's current 74%, and yet they only show him with 281 EV.

Nate Silver has Obama up around 295 EV, even with only a 74% chance of winning.

What explains the difference?

[courseofhistory]

11. Maybe this will explain.

October 3, 2012 - The election forecast model we have developed predicts a victory for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney on November 6th.

The model, which is based on state and national polling data as well as state historical voting patterns, predicts that President Obama will receive 53.13% of the national 2-party popular vote to Mitt Romney's 46.87%. Furthermore, the model predicts that President Obama will win the Electoral College vote, 332 - 206.

The model that we have used to generate this forecast was originally published in the International Journal of Forecasting in 1999, and has undergone significant refinement since that time. Our most recent update was presented at the 2009 Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, and was ultimately published in Putcha, C., ed. Methods of Forecasting American Election Outcomes. Lewiston: Edwin Mellen Press, 2010.

It has been used to generate fairly accurate predictions of the last two presidential elections. Our research, which looks at data from the elections from 1992 - 2008, shows that the model correctly predicts just over 90% of all state outcomes, predicts the national popular vote to within an average of 0.5% of the 2-party vote, and predicts the Electoral College vote to within 24 Electoral Votes.

I also think they don't tie their win probability directly to the EV like Nate Silver does.

[Phx_Dem]

12. Works for me.