538 74.4% O 295.4O EV Princeton 299 O EV 87.32% chance of winning UVU Forecasting

[courseofhistory]

538

74.4% O chance of winning

294.4 O EV

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

As of October 26, 5:01PM EDT:
Obama: 299
Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +2.04%

http://election.princeton.edu/

87.32% chance of O winning

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

[speedoo]

1. Did I just hear a "thud" from up around Boston?

And please Boston, get rid of that lying POS Romney and his cohorts this is over.

[budkin]

2. ROMENTUM BABY!!!

[TXDem1975]

3. Good info, great site

Thank you for the good news and the link to that fivethiryeight site, it looks great so I bookmarked it. Here's a place where you can post about polls and discuss issues. http://teachers.net/mentors/politics/ Informed posters needed!

[renate]

6. welcome to DU!

[livetohike]

7. Welcome to DU!

[smorkingapple]

4. Nate says these sites and others discount the correlation between state polls

So they might be overstating Obama's chances by simply looking at how one states set of polls are behaving vs considering how they move together. His example is if Romney takes OH then he's likely to take IA as well.

This gets into the statistical weeds but it'll be interesting to see who's right come election night.

[Maximumnegro]

5. Princeton was arguably just as accurate

if not more so than Nate in the past so yes it will be interesting.