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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 74.4% O 295.4O EV Princeton 299 O EV 87.32% chance of winning UVU Forecasting
As of October 26, 5:01PM EDT:
Obama: 299
Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +2.04%
http://election.princeton.edu/
Obama: 299
Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +2.04%
http://election.princeton.edu/
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538 74.4% O 295.4O EV Princeton 299 O EV 87.32% chance of winning UVU Forecasting (Original Post)
courseofhistory
Oct 2012
OP
Nate says these sites and others discount the correlation between state polls
smorkingapple
Oct 2012
#4
speedoo
(11,229 posts)1. Did I just hear a "thud" from up around Boston?
And please Boston, get rid of that lying POS Romney and his cohorts this is over.
budkin
(6,698 posts)2. ROMENTUM BABY!!!
TXDem1975
(4 posts)3. Good info, great site
Thank you for the good news and the link to that fivethiryeight site, it looks great so I bookmarked it. Here's a place where you can post about polls and discuss issues. http://teachers.net/mentors/politics/ Informed posters needed!
renate
(13,776 posts)6. welcome to DU!
livetohike
(22,118 posts)7. Welcome to DU!
smorkingapple
(827 posts)4. Nate says these sites and others discount the correlation between state polls
So they might be overstating Obama's chances by simply looking at how one states set of polls are behaving vs considering how they move together. His example is if Romney takes OH then he's likely to take IA as well.
This gets into the statistical weeds but it'll be interesting to see who's right come election night.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)5. Princeton was arguably just as accurate
if not more so than Nate in the past so yes it will be interesting.