is 538 in the bag for hillary?

[TimeToEvolve]

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/04/is-538-in-the-bag-for-hillary/

nate silver and his collection of neoliberal commenters have an agenda, to think they don't is naive.

[bkkyosemite]

1. I believe he is.

[TimeToEvolve]

4. attitude is everything.

it is so tell tale!

[Csainvestor]

2. they are owned by disney

and disney owns what ABC? The news outlets love money in politics.

VOX is owned by comcast correct? They own NBC?

Washington post owned by Bezos- worth 50 billion
NYDN owned by Zuckerberg- networth over 2 billion


Bernie wants to tax billionaires...

Follow the money...

[TimeToEvolve]

6. did you ever stop to think?

why is their logo a FOX? sly? dishonest? both?

[geek tragedy]

3. "Nobody told us there'd be math in this election." nt

[Lucinda]

16. Geek Tragedy for the win!

[Hortensis]

31. Math is in the bag for Hillary too.

No surprise. Nothing has more attitude than Math!

[Squinch]

80. Math is an oligarch.

[Hortensis]

94. Lol. This reminded me of "Is Math Liberal?",

an article in Mother Jones, so I went and found it. This is how a mathematician makes fun of Cato Institute sophistry.



http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/06/inquiring-minds-jordan-ellenberg-math-liberalism-nuance-uncertainty

[Squinch]

96. LOL! Libertopia!

[LiberalFighter]

76. It is beyond belief what people will say.

I'm trying to figure what they say Nate Silver is doing. By using the poll data from various polls and using demographic polling information he is personally changing the numbers? Silver explains in How We’re Forecasting The Primaries* what he is doing. Which is being upfront and not devious. And it up to the reader to determine how to interpret it.

And Peter White at CounterPunch is using this guy as his expert?

Enter Doug Hatlem, once a Jerry Falwell Baptist in Virginia, then a Mennonite street pastor working with the homeless in Toronto, and now a stay-at-home Dad in Chicago, Hatlem’s peregrinations have quixotically led him to stop and consider numbers: specifically, the old adage about lies, damned lies, and statistics.

He must not have read "Who’s On Track For The Nomination?" authored by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman with additional contributions from Allison McCann and Nate Silver. It provides the target they assigned for each state for each to win the nomination. Currently Clinton exceeds the target by 108% while Sanders is 92%. That doesn't appear to favor Clinton.

[jack_krass]

85. If elections were about math....

Then mathmaticians would rule the country, not lawyers and bankers

[SFnomad]

5. 538 deals with numbers, math and reality ... something the BS cheerleaders have troubles with n/t

[TimeToEvolve]

9. whatever

not everything is math, its Chemistry!

and i see a whole lot of mercaptan coming from 538!

[Lucinda]

17. In an election it's the math.

[griffi94]

23. How many delegates is the chemistry worth

and is there some formula for that.

[TimeToEvolve]

33. no, it is more intrinsic then that

there is something highly odious and toxic here , i mean it really smells! combine with plenty of bromides and you get pure recrystallized bullshit and its coming from 538.



any way, if you put 2 and 2 together you'll see that Big Money has bought the election along with nearly everything else, now that is real math.

[griffi94]

36. That may be the real math

But Hillary still wins.

Bernie isn't going to catch her.
He's as close now as he's going to get.

[1StrongBlackMan]

55. Very true, Chemistry plays a role ... It produces the math; ergo ...

[hellofromreddit]

88. The opinion articles are not math

[SFnomad]

89. You can have your own opinions, you can't have your own facts ... math is facts n/t

[hellofromreddit]

90. The people howling about math around here have done none, leaving me nothing to deny

[SFnomad]

91. The BS cheerleaders are in serious denial ... and that's not an opinion, that's a fact n/t

[hellofromreddit]

92. More insults. Still no math!

[wyldwolf]

7. reporting math = anti-Bernie

[Gomez163]

8. How can you tell they're "neoliberal?"

[TimeToEvolve]

13. try looking at things in light of everything else, not just the egoistic perspective.

hillary loves TPP.

538 , owned by Disney

Disney is a major multinational inline to gain substantially from TPP

TPP is neoliberal trade policy

[Lucinda]

18. Hillary is against TPP. Perhaps you should do a little research? n/t

[TimeToEvolve]

46. not true

the clintons are some of the biggest advocates for free trade deals like NAFTA and TPP. i am aware that hill came out against TPP a few weeks ago but be assured, that is just a P.R. move, perhaps you dont know what P.R. means. why don't you do a little research instead.

[Lucinda]

48. Sorry, but you are wrong and google is your friend.

[TimeToEvolve]

51. i googled

and found something that isn't MSM

http://inthesetimes.com/article/18284/suddenly-hillary-clinton-is-a-critic-of-the-tpp

so much waffling on every issue!, and people still trust this candidate?

[Lucinda]

54. Perhaps find another by someone that hasn't worked as a Sanders press secretary, and you may find

the actual truth.

Maybe try this one for starters:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-singh-grewal/why-hillary-clinton-is-ri_b_8295420.html

[CrowCityDem]

10. Reality has a well known Hillary bias.

[TimeToEvolve]

15. i guess you are right..

the ultra rich own the means and machines that influence reality more than anyone else, and they've chosen their "democrat"

[smiley]

19. the reality of Hillary Clinton

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511111915

http://inthesetimes.com/article/18813/the-five-lamest-excuses-for-hillary-clintons-vote-to-invade-iraq

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/01/5-reasons-not-to-vote-for-hillary-clinton/


This is the reality of Hillary Clinton.

[griffi94]

11. I think it's really more

that math is in the bag for Hillary.

Bernis is way down and after next Tuesday is more likely than not to
be down even worse.

Not a lot of places left for him to catch up.
He needs blowouts, except he needs to be on the blowingout side as opposed
to the getting blownout side.

You know that saying that truth has a liberal bias.

The reality of the math has a Hillary bias.

[msongs]

12. everyone is in the bag for hillary. those people who voted for bernie are just fooling you nt

[workinclasszero]

14. Math is in the bag for Hillary!

I blame that democratic corporate whore Archimedes!

[Lucinda]

21. Agreed. If it wasn't for that scoundrel Archimedes, Bernie would of had this

all wrapped up by now!

[workinclasszero]

26. Math is a tool of the oligarchy

Feel the Bern math!!

[TimeToEvolve]

24. math is impartial

it's just those really big, i mean really big numbers that are causing the problems. and only when that really big number is preceded by this sign : $
only a few people have that kind of money needed to buy media let alone a candidate.

maybe that the math that you should be paying attention to.

[Lucinda]

30. Bernie outspends Hillary on media buys! By a LOT. n/t

[TimeToEvolve]

35. and guess who pays for Bernie!

His Supporter's Donations!

Hill on the other hand; Goldman $$$$$achs EXXON MOBIL, Private Prisons, etc

[Lucinda]

40. Nope. That would be illegal. 92% of her contributions are from individual donors.

If you didnt know that, you might want to do some research.

https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/candidate.php?cycle=2016&id=N00000019&type=f

[Renew Deal]

72. He outspent her 2:1 and lost 3:2

[mcar]

68. I can't even express

how much I love this reply!

[rbrnmw]

20. We are all in the bag for Hillary

The whole world is in the bag for Hillary. Resistance is futile!!!!

[fun n serious]

22. Every one and every entity is in the bag

[Nonhlanhla]

25. Sure, they have an agenda

A mathematical one.

[calguy]

27. No, it's the majority of Democrats

who are in the "bag" for Hillary Clinton.
Count me in as one of them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. They must be in the tank for the Golden State Warriors too.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

[mcar]

69. They are, of course

Because the final score doesn't count in basketball or in politics.

[brooklynite]

29. Right. What could be more biased than numbers?

[Blue_Adept]

32. Yes. Math is in the tank for hillary too.

Bern it all down!

[Codeine]

34. Most of the voters are in her bag too.

It's a nice bag. We're all pretty cozy, and we get to watch DemocratSincBirth's awesome dancing Hillary avatar -- it's a lot of fun.

[TimeToEvolve]

38. you may live in "the bag", but i live on the Earth

and Bernie cares about the Earth.

and that's important to me.

Hill doesn't, Hill only cares about money and power

[randome]

58. How simplistic and naive-sounding.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]

[1StrongBlackMan]

61. No ... that comment just reflects the moment before ...

self-aware people recognize their argument is for shit ... for those less self-aware, it takes much longer.

[oberliner]

37. This article is idiotic

"For example, the low-voter turnout in the Southern primaries perpetuated the idea that Sanders lacks support among minorities even though, as Hatlem points out, Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington (as well as Colorado and Michigan) have significant numbers of non-white voters and Sanders won all of them"

The idea is that Sanders lacks support with African-Americans, of which there are very few in Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington.

They represent less than 5 percent of the population in each of those states.

[pnwmom]

45. That is the same point I was going to make. The black population in those states is very low.

And in New York, a non-southern state, we saw once again that Hillary got three times as many African American goes as Bernie, and many more Hispanic votes as well.

In fact, Bernie hasn't won the majority of black voters in ANY state anywhere -- including Vermont.

[onecaliberal]

39. Can you say Hillary OWNS them? Of course he is.

[Skwmom]

41. Where do they get their money? Is he angling for bigger things? n/t

[jfern]

42. Definitely. He's an establishment hack who also thought Trump didn't have a chance.

[oberliner]

49. Almost no one thought Trump had a chance

Is his success not surprising to you?

[jfern]

50. He kept saying Trump didn't have a chance well after many accepted he had a good chance

[oberliner]

57. By January he started to come around

I think the Trump phenomenon surprised a lot of smart people.

[jfern]

60. Eh, he's been laughably wrong this whole primary

Jim Webb was supposed to be the anti Hillary.

[oberliner]

64. That wasn't Nate

Harry Enten was the guy over there who pushed that Jim Webb narrative.

I think Nate's biggest miss was Michigan.

[Renew Deal]

73. Prove it

Where was he wrong besides Michigan-D?

[JI7]

43. i think he himself supports Clinton but i don't think he is making up numbers

[IamMab]

44. Everyone is out to get you. You can't trust anyone.

Have fun!

[savalez]

74. It's true!

I keed I keed!

[pnwmom]

47. Yeah, and all those pollsters 538 aggregates, they're in the bag for Hillary, too.

[bluestateguy]

52. 538 can prognosticate and crunch numbers until the cows come home

but they can't deliver actual votes on election day.

[pandr32]

53. Maybe it"s just the data! Truth sucks for some.

[TimeToEvolve]

56. data can be skewed, and you'd be none the wiser.

it's a trick older than you.
and why would they be trustworthy?

[elehhhhna]

65. Poll fraud must precede election fraud.

[pandr32]

77. And we can usually point to those

Like some on Fox News.

[pandr32]

75. I am pretty sure that would not be good for Nate Silver

His reputation is likely important to him, and it would not be hard for some other data person to show he was skewing numbers on purpose or out of stupidity.

[CentralCoaster]

59. I think so. nt

[Kalidurga]

62. Yes

It is obvious. They tend to ignore people who aren't being polled. Of course they can't use unknowns to crunch the numbers. However, they could emphasize that pollsters are ignoring trends.

[Lucinda]

63. Naw...538 has the hots for math.

Math is the one in the bag for Hillary.

[mcar]

66. Facts have a well known Hillary bias

[Capt. Obvious]

67. No

[Adrahil]

70. Yup. They Refuse to adopt BernieMath. NT

[Renew Deal]

71. The truth has a liberal bias.

[Firebrand Gary]

78. Bump, bump.... under the bus goes Nate Silver!

[jcgoldie]

82. You haven't been paying attention

Silver has been under the bus driven by the Sanders voodoo-math crowd for months. He may as well pitch a tent under there.

[DemocracyDirect]

79. All the polls have gotten into the business of shaping voting, rather than predicting voting.

It pays better.

[tritsofme]

81. Unfortunately for you guys, Reality is in the bag for Hillary too.

[Zynx]

83. Math is a powerful force here and it's made this outcome clear for a while.

[OhZone]

84. Reality is in the bag for Clinton!

OHNOES!

[snowy owl]

86. Nate's a math guy and not interested in manipulating numbers. He wants accuracy.

[ronnykmarshall]

87. Of course they are.

Any group or person is in the bag for Hillary and should not be trusted and their lives exposed and they should be harassed, tortured, waterboarded and have their bank accounts hacked for not supporting Bernie.!!!!!!!

[Demsrule86]

93. No, any unbisased observer know Bernie can't win

No matter how much you all kick and scream and slander Hillary...he can't win. The delegate math is against him. Nate Silver is wrong rarely. Bernie should get out and stop the nonsense...we need to beat the GOP in the fall...that is the point of a primary.

[brooklynite]

95. Tell me, is there any analyst you believe is NOT "in the bag for Hillary"?

[Dem2]

97. Wow, that lowered my IQ just reading it

Blaming Nate for Hillary being the Democratic establishment favorite and some pollsters not properly weighing their polls is like blaming the weatherman for missing a forecast even using the best models we have available to predict the weather.


This is simply a highly biased piece by someone who's clearly catering to a Bernie Sanders audience. I hope it makes people feel good, because it's interpretation of "facts" is so biased that I can only classify the article as "partisan crap".