Prediction: They will find there was no convention bounce, no debate bounce, no bounce of any kind

[grantcart]

In fact a couple of billion dollars was spent on a campaign that changed almost no one's mind at all.

It probably will be Obama with 318 EV and Romney 220.

President Obama 53%

Romney 45%

Other 2%

And in retrospect the only two things that had any impact at all, but probably wouldn't have changed anything is

1) Romney's secret 47% tape

2) Picking Ryan

Perhaps if he had picked a somewhat normal person for VP he might have been able to recast himself, but its doubtful.

[stopbush]

1. You may be right. It seems to me that the only thing that's making this seem like a close election

is the media promoting a horse race because they want the billions in ad revenue to keep flowing into their coffers.

[Liberalynn]

2. Jennifer Granholm

Had a member of Obama's campagin team who said their polling numbers are back to pre-debate levels.

[davidn3600]

17. I dont see that

I think the debate hurt Obama significantly in the South and slightly in the North. He might have rallied back a little. But I think that debate rallied enough of the GOP that they may take FL and NC, and may make VA a toss-up.

But pre-debate....Obama was winning FL, NC, and VA. He had a huge lead in OH. And was leading in all the national polls. So I dont see it pre-debate.

[Liberalynn]

19. The campaign rep explained it like this

at the beginning everyone knew the race was going to be close. Then the PUKES had an #EPIC FAIL at their convention. Our side the Democrats had an #EPIC WIN from our convention. So we got a huge bounce, higher than any one expected.

Mittens got a higher than expected bounce from the first debate.

She then went onto explain what is happening now, is that the Obama convention bounce and the Romney first debate bounce have both virtually disappeared and we are basically back at beginining of the race numbers with President Obama holding an advantage in Electoral College Votes if the state polls hold, and Romney holding a slight but within the margin of error lead in national polling. But all that counts in the end is the EV and President Obama has the edge in that, and if we all get out and vote he will keep it and WIN.

It probably won't be a landslide but given how further divided the country has become, pretty much split evenly between PUKE and Democrats, with very few independents, it in all likely hood was never going to be a landslide any way.

I agree with the campaign's assessment, I think we are likely to win, but we can't take anything for granted and just have to keep pushing all the DEMS we know to get to the polls come hell or highwater.

[Maximumnegro]

3. Just as the campaign said in September

and this month. Yep indeed.

[Thinkingabout]

4. Heard rush say this morning how pitiful the DNC was.

If DNC was pitiful then what vile word would he use for RNC. The RNC is a bunch of sad sacks.

[pennylane100]

8. I am so proud that I am a democrat and I always feel sorry for those who are not,

but I do believe, and I know that many people will disagree with me, that part of our problem in this campaign is the weak leadership of the DNC. If we had a Howard Dean type leading us into battle, we would be getting back the house and the senate would never have been in jeopardy.

I do not have any bad things to say about the present leadership, I am sure they meant well, and that is important. However, they were MIA during the Wisconsin governor recall, which sent an ominous sign about our future prospects. I never really felt that they were able to energize the foot soldiers needed to compensate for all the corporate money the other side had. I just felt that they were mostly invisible and I directed most of my donations to individual candidates this time around.

However, I do not feel too guilty, I still directed all my donations to democratic causes, I just kept a little more control of the beneficiaries.

[Blue Owl]

5. Think GWB with a basketball

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=2524734n

[HooptieWagon]

6. The biggest impact will have been the GOPs war on women.

The gender gap will be huge. The republics just went way too far, completely unnecessarily. Women will decide this.

[pointsoflight]

7. The volatility we've been seeing...

...likely comes from very soft supporters moving around. The reality is that the solid/definitely committed support for Obama in something in the mid 40% range, and the solid/definitely committed support for Romney is in the low 40% range. In the end, the soft supporters that make up the rest will probably split something like 60-40, 50-50, or 40-60.

[grantcart]

9. actually very little volatility. Romney consistently has a 44% hard ceiling.

[IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ]

10. Agree that Obama will win 300+ EV's . But no way will he match his 53% from 2008. More like 50.7%

Electorate is simply too polarized. I predict a final popular vote margin similar to Bush's lead over Kerry in 2004.

[greyl]

11. Obama, 358. See ya Nov 7th. ;) nt

[Joe Shlabotnik]

12. 2 billion changed a lot of hands,

and lined a lot of pockets, and likely generated a lot of IOU's.

[rufus dog]

13. I agree with your basic premise

But think you are off by 5 to 10% on the EVs. (Light for Obama)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. I wholeheartedly agree on Ryan being a mistake. I never understood

Ryan from the beginning - when everyone was calling it brilliant - even MSNBC

First of all, it hadn't been what, a year before that he was the laughing stock and ridiculed by the masses for his budget. He was tainted goods from the start.

Secondly, MR can't carry his own state MA. This is bad. Why, on earth, would you pick a running mate who couldn't carry his own state either. (Hopefully WI doesn't get rigged). Very poor strategy. Explains why Romney was "on his own" on selection - since no savvy political strategist would have agreed, in my book.

Lastly, party because of his baby face, he looks so wet behind the ears. He lacks gravitas.

Agree, don't know if someone else would have given it to MR, but would have helped.

MR made a fatal mistake, thinking he needed to please his base. They will go along with anything. Look how quiet they are now that he is a faux moderate.

[RedSpartan]

15. I think if he had picked Rubio for VP it would be a whole different race.

[ncav53]

16. I'm just glad he didn't pick Portman or Rubio

[smorkingapple]

18. I disagree, that 1st debate definitely made this a closer race than it needed to be...

Denying that is denying reality.

We would have been talking about retaking the House and increasing Senate seats vs what the daily polls are showing.

Now we have to ignore the media playing up this bullshit momentum theme, 269-269 ties, EC/popular vote split, etc just to keep the race close.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

20. Agreed about the first debate

If not for that, we're looking at an EV landslide with major coattail effects.

[Dawson Leery]

21. An 8 point win with only 318 EV's?

If that is the case, one can argue Americans have moved to areas where there are people are similar to themselves, ideologically.