Rasmussen: Mitt Romney still leads President Obama in Arizona, but the race is tightening.

[primaryblue]

A new Rasmussen Reports/CBS 5 survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Romney with 52% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/arizona/election_2012_arizona_president

[Tutonic]

1. Yeah, ok. Cause if Scott Rasmussen says it then it must be so.

Digging up dead people for votes? That'll boost Mitt's numbers.

[SLCLiberal]

12. Only

If we baptize them first.

[kevink077]

2. Interesting

If we win Arizona, it is going to be a landslide win for us anyway. Frosting on the cake is all. Hopefully we can get that senate seat though for sure.

[oldhippydude]

6. actually if i had a choice... i would rather have a Carmona victory...

don't get wrong lets work for both..but by the time Arizona rolls around we should have enough EV to ice it.... if we can put Carmona in this time, demographics will turn it blue soon enough..

i live in New Mexico 04 was a bush year here.. now we are solid blue, except for one very red district... look for Arizona to go the same way.. 6 years is long time.. if we Can pick up Indiana , and hold MO.. pick MA its going to be a very good year in the Senate..

[pointsoflight]

3. So it's probably more like 50-46.

Rasmussen leans republican. And the Latinos in Arizona are likely being underrepresented. Not completely out of reach with a really strong turnout on our side.

[hrmjustin]

4. +1

[wisteria]

5. This poll was wrong about Harry Reid when he was running. Repub polls are all going to lean right.

They have to keep the base interested enough to go vote.

[gateley]

7. Was AZ close in 2008?

[MiniMe]

9. No, it was McCain's home state

And McCain took it 54-45

[gateley]

10. Oh, that's right. Well, with all the RW whack officials they've elected, this is even

more exciting!

[TroyD]

13. That's considered 'closeish'

For a Presidential nominee's own state.

Obama performed reasonably well in 2008 despite it being McCain's home state. He kept him to single digits.

The odds are still that Romney will win Arizona according to Nate Silver, but the potential for it to become a swing state is there.

Bill Clinton won it in 1996 and Latino Decisions says that if Latinos vote in large numbers, they could have an impact.

What I'm most interested in is the Senate race. That is likely still more winnable for Carmona than the state is for Obama. Clinton was there for a big rally last week.

[marybourg]

8. Electoral-vote.com says it's 48(R)-44(O) in AZ

[GallopingGhost]

11. Eight point lead is

pretty safe for Romney, but I do see AZ becoming a swing state in future elections.

I lived there for many years. The demographics are changing.

[fujiyama]

14. Yeah, I think we'll lose it by like 4-5 points

Probably around the same margin Gore lost NV by.

I think the three neighboring states - NM (very close Gore win, close Kerry loss, blowout, now safe), NV (two narrow losses, but a blowout last time, close but trending Dem), and CO (two losses, a comfortable win last time, could go either way this time) - can provide a template of sorts of where AZ will go. It will definitely be considered a battleground in '16.

[GallopingGhost]

15. Yes, I agree.

But maybe we'll get a big blue surprise on election night, who knows?

Stranger things have happened.

Republican heads would explode.