2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMitt desperately trying to spin Ohio
A TIME poll of Ohio this week put Obama up 5 in Ohio, in line with other recent polls by major news outlets, but Mitt Romney's campaign assured supporters in a new memo Thursday that things are still looking up.
"Some public polling shows the true nature of the race," the memo by political director Rich Beeson and Ohio state director Scott Jennings read. "Rasmussen this week showed it tied at 48%, Suffolk tied at 47%, and Angus-Reid tied at 48%. Our view is that the race is a dead heat with Romney on an unmistakable upward track."
As for that TIME poll? Too many Democrats, the Romney campaign complains: "Anything more than D+8 [TIME was +9] shows a survey to be vastly out of touch with todays political reality Obama isnt as popular, his base isnt as energized, and Mitt Romneys supporters are poised to shatter voter contact records in Ohio." They added that Romney is winning independents in the same poll, a sign they think heralds an eventual win.
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http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-memo-unskews-time-ohio-poll
Earlier:
A Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Mr. Obama with a five-point edge over Mr. Romney in Ohio, 49 percent to 44 percent, which is within the margin of sampling error. Party strategists on both sides say the race appears to be remarkably close, but two senior Republican officials here said that they believed Mr. Obama had a slight advantage and that they worried that Mr. Romneys gains had leveled off.
Advisers to Mr. Romney argue that they can win the election without winning Ohio, but it means that the campaign must perform nearly flawlessly in every other battleground. One aide referred to Ohio as still the big nut to crack, but a victory would probably mean that Mr. Obamas Midwestern firewall of Iowa and Wisconsin also was highly vulnerable.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/us/politics/romney-campaign-fights-for-electoral-votes.html
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)CaliforniaPeggy
(149,588 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I've never seen anything like the disinformation and poll skewing that has created an alternate universe for Republicans this year.
Yes, the Time poll is significant. A five-point lead for Obama in Ohio is devastating for Romney. Romney can't win without Ohio. There's just no way.
I tell ya---I am totally shocked at what I read on other right-leaning sites. They are convinced of so many negative things about Obama and his campaign, and they're just so sure that Romeny is going to win handily. They are delusional. Completely nuts.
I have been looking at numbers and trying to be objective--because I'm someone who just wants to know the truth--don't give me the bullshit, just level with me. It is clear that Obama is doing better in the electoral college. Absolutely no doubt about it. And the top key swing states, he's ahead and has always been ahead, as in PA, OH, IA, NV.
It's riveting to visit these other sites and see them clinging to a couple of national polls (which are meaningless at this point) and hanging onto Rasmussen polls for dear life.
These people are going to unravel at the seams on election night. They are in severe denial, and these Republican-leaning pollsters and opinionators who write articles about lite turnout at Obama rallies and Mitt having momentum--do not do these wacknuts any favors. They are doing a disservice. Plus, they'll probably go ballistic on election night when they don't win.
I just read an article about "satellite voting site" in my state of Iowa. It's a new thing. A new law allows small, satellite voting offices if someone can get 100 signatures. Then, the state election people will allow the location to be a satellite poll location for a week or so. OMG...Obama secured signatures for 50+ satellite sites on Iowa college campuses. Is that not genius??? They've also got them at Hispanic grocery stores, Wal Mart and other key sites.
Talk about taking this campaign to a granular level. It's inspiring.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)God analysis!
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)That is a stunning statement if you think about it. They are conceding Ohio. That is straight up political speak for we have lost Ohio. They could just as easily have said the same bull about a tie or surge or whatever. They didn't.
They didn't.
No one believes the swing state sweep can happen. Nobody. So for them to say this to TIME is a big deal.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)It wouldn't. OH will follow WI and IA.
Reality is setting in folks. They are looking at alternatives to Ohio.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)really fuckwad???? So those 15k who showed up just to hear the President are.. bored without anything else to do??? How about the folks in line for hours to vote early in Ohio???
OMG... I know they're trying to look macho, but they've wandered into batshit crazy territory.
Of course, Romney's son DOES own voting machines in Ohio, INCLUDING the maintenance contracts, so it could be their narrative to cover the widespread suppression and theft like 2004. Big Diff is that the President is not going to fold if this happens, like 2004.