No draw. Romney won. Back from the dead again. He will be the repub nominee.

[Skip Intro]

And a formidable foe v Obama.

Again, who he chooses to be his running mate will be a huge factor in the final GE vote.

[DCBob]

1. Probably, but..

Willard is a dependable gaffe machine. He could step in it again between now and Super Tuesday. If he bombs on ST it could get ugly again for the Mittster.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Disagree...

I think Romney's strength is also his weakness and will be a weakness in this election.

What do I mean by that? Well, supposedly, he's the guy to get us out of the economic dire straights. Well, if the economy is turning around, he becomes less and less credible. So, what's his next biggest issue? It can't be anything social like with Santorum. He won't be able to talk about helping the working class, since he's thrown 'em under the bus far too often in this campaign. By the end, he'll be neutralized because his major issue will be improving and he won't be able to stir up emotions with the base, you know, to get 'em out to the polls in record numbers needed to win.

[DCBob]

3. If Romney is the nominee their main issue will likely be gas prices/energy.

Most likely gas prices will keep going up and the GOPers think they have winning argument that the President is not doing enough to keep prices down.. drilling permits, pipeline, regulations, etc.

Clearly it wont be social stuff.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. It won't be social issues...

He can't run on 'em. But while gas prices go up, I have a feeling they'll start going down toward the election, negating any talking point.

[DCBob]

5. I hope you are right about gas prices going down.

High gas prices and their effect on the economy could be the only thing that might derail the President.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Well, no one knows, really, what the prices have in store...

Maybe I'm hopeful more than anything. We'll see. I think the economy will have a far bigger impact and I'm skeptical gas prices can damage the economy that much (they didn't in '04 when they spiked). Now, gas shortage? Then we panic.

[DCBob]

8. yes, the economy is more resilient now and can handle high gas prices..

as long as they get too high.

[Ilsa]

7. That will be their argument, but

the facts support Obama since permits and production increased over last three years. My guess is that the wall street speculators will keep prices high to try to get him out and Rmoney in.

[DCBob]

9. and Netanyahu might bomb Iran in October.

just to stick to the President.

[Cosmocat]

11. IMO

More Israelis, including in their military, don't want to start up with Iran.

For all the current bluster, Iran is a LONG ways from having any actual weapon of any kind.

While they have their republican like war hawks, they are not stupid, and they know Obama is likely to win reelection either way. SO, while they might act "alone" they are NOT going to act without US approval, and it is REAL safe to say that Obama will keep a leash on him until after the election.

[DCBob]

12. I hope you are right.

I just dont trust them.

[Cosmocat]

25. One thing that even most Rs can't debate

is that BO is pretty darn sharp with foreign policy.

Also, he is NOT someone who is going to let himself get boxed in to something by idiots screaming around him.

It appears that this is something the Rs are going to spend the next 8 months trying to make political hay on, for sure, and the Israel equivilent of our GOP morons will be trying to work it that way, too.

I saw some jerkoff prime diplomate on Faux a week or so ago, being lobbed softballs in some interview, and he cried how "this is making the US look week!" a half dozen times in amongst his BS.

My personal tendency when people do that is to get more focused and reasoned. To these "conservative" types, they react to bluster, so to THEM it is going to force a reaction. I think BO is clearly like me (100 times better) and the LAST thing he is going to do is get boxed into something with lugnuts running around trying to bait him.

ONLY in HIS terms, will give them the go ahead before the election, and I don't see him doing it. And, they can bluster all they want, but they aren't going to go without the US.

[musicblind]

33. They debate it by SAYING he is good at Foreign Policy and claim that is a bad thing

because caring about Foreign Policy is a weak man's game. We should just shoot everyone who doesn't look or think exactly like us.

[Cosmocat]

39. That's what they will do, but the trump card

is his getting OBL.

This meme will work in their insulated bubble, but outside of Rs who are going to vote R regardless, anyone who will think outside their box, it won't hold a lot of water.

[Cosmocat]

10. This shiite pisses me off to no end

No you personally, but how fin hard is it for the "liberal media" to note when these butt hats scream about gas prices, that they are less than they have not even reached what they were BEFORE he took office in late 2008?

[DCBob]

13. Totally agree.

The "liberal media" lets these idiots lie and lie and dont correct them.

[Motown_Johnny]

14. Santorum might still win more delegates

which can be spun as a win, or at least a draw.

Not that Rmoney won't be the nominee. I believe he will win also but I don't see him as truly formidable. The guy is a gaffe machine in a $2000.00 suit.

[quaker bill]

15. Foe, yes, formidable?

Romney's core support (look at the maps and the polls) is urban-suburban, white, college educated, moderately conservative folks making more than 100K. His base (look at the maps) is located in areas that Obama will take by 70-30 to 60-40 margins. Romney will secure the nomination by winning the republican primaries in the blue states (and the bluest counties therein). He can't seem to get more than 35 percent support in the vast sea of red rural areas, often barely even 30.

Unless something really bad happens with the economy before Nov, with Romney as the nominee, Obama wins it in a walk. Plenty of reasons out there to donate and work to assure it, and lots of downticket challenges. But I think "formidable" overstates the case regardless of which one they pick.

[DCBob]

17. I guess any GOPer nominee would be considered formidable..

given the nature of our electorate and media and influence of money.

[musicblind]

34. The media could make a diseased potato a formidable foe.

That's the issue.

RICK SANTORUM was the GOP front runner until a few days ago.

No one is that crazy. Not even the GOP.

If the Main Stream Media want a horse race they will lie and lie until the manufacture one.

We have to make sure this is not even CLOSE or else it will be stolen ... again.

[peacebird]

16. In the weakest turnoutnseaon for Rs in recent history, a man who can barely get 3% more that

A fundamentalist nutjob is scarcely a strong candidate. Even Rs do not like him.

[bowens43]

18. I have to admit that I had a momentary doubt

but my faith in the republican establishment has restored.

Romney is now and always has been the nominee for 2012.

Unfortunately for us, he has a shot at winning in November. He is the only one of the bunch with a chance.

[emulatorloo]

23. Majority of electorate don't know about Bain yet

[ecstatic]

19. But the right really hates him

They talk about him worse than we do! Turnout has been super low. It'll be interesting to see if they turn out on election day.

[WI_DEM]

20. 'formidable' he is very weak, imo.

[KharmaTrain]

21. Democrats Need To Win On Their Own Merits

It's great that the rushpublicans have presented us with such a cast of inept candidates but that doesn't mean Democrats should assume that the election's in the bag...or that they can win (as they have in the past) as being the "sane" one.

While maintaining the Executive is important, the down ticket races are the ones that will determine where this country goes. Losing the Senate and not regaining the House will lead to more gridlock and frustration. While the great unhinged may not be happy to vote for Millard they still will be at the polls to vote for their favorite knuckle dragger for other races. Thus there's a lot of hard work ahead...no matter who the candidate at the top of the ticket is...

[grantcart]

22. lol I hope your right

He is a terrible candidate and the best electoral match up we could get.

He will not challenge the President in any of the traditional Democratic states in the east, west or midwest.

He will not bring Michigan and he may give us Ohio.

He will be weak in the south and the President will move the front lines of the election there with Romney having to defend states that the Republicans normally walk away with.

Elections aren't about polling positives but about polling negatives as a positive may mean a very slight positive or an intense positive while negatives are much more established. If a person answers that they have a negative impression of someone then it is usually much more intense than a positive indication and much much more difficult to win.



Four years ago candidate Clinton's negatives created a ceiling that she just couldn't break through. She ended the campaign with the same level of support that she started the campaign with and the same is true with Romney.

Right now the Republicans get 80% of the play because they have the primary contest and the President hasn't even started campaigning.

Once they start campaign you are going to have them in a nightly juxtaposition and the comparison will be jarring.

Right now Romney is running away from the press and he is going to antagonize them. Eventually he will have to appear on somebody beside FOX.

During the debate he won't be able to be flippant against the President and he will look small.

Finally when he goes down to a massive electoral college defeat the far right/ Evangelical wing of the Republican Party will be energized to GO EVEN FURTHER RIGHT saying that they tried two moderates, McCain and Romney and it got them nowhere.

And here is the bonus possibility. The Mormons will wake up and realize that they are not well liked as a philosophy and not even that well liked in the Republican Party and it will help foster more disinterest in getting political outside of their communities.

[emulatorloo]

24. Excellent post.

And you can see how transparently the GOP lie machine is trying to drive Pres Obama's negatives up. However the crazier the claims about Obama, the crazier they seem.

Bottom line for me, still gonna do as much GOTV as I can

[musicblind]

35. One can hope n/t

[davidpdx]

38. That would be a bonus

Especially given the fact that they have contributed to groups that try to stop gay marriage.

[Arkana]

26. He's said way too much stupid shit and written too many attack ads for the DNC

to be a formidable opponent any more.

[FSogol]

27. He will chose VA Gov Bob McDonnell. n/t

[Kwarg]

29. Does Mcdonnell speak with an accent?

Romney will be looking for someone with Southern credentials or a TeaBagger.

[FSogol]

30. Nope, but he's an extremist from a southern state who sounds like a moderate,

is boring enough to not upstage Mitt, and is Teabagger friendly.

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. Pretty certain it's a draw

Romney, Santorum likely split GOP delegates from Michigan's congressional districts

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum apparently each won seven of Michigan’s 14 congressional districts — where most of the delegates to the national convention are allotted based on the state Republican Party’s rules — in Tuesday’s GOP presidential primary.

With 99% of the vote counted, Romney won the state’s overall vote, 41- 38%.

Though results are not yet final, Santorum appeared to make it even in the battle for congressional districts by taking the last district to report its numbers — the 13th in Detroit and some western Wayne suburbs.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120229/NEWS15/120229013/Romney-Santorum-split-Michigan-congressional-districts

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MI-R : 15-15

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. WOW! You sound optimistic. Are you supporting the Democrat in this election?

[musicblind]

36. Yes, I am sure the OP is. And so am I.

I am just sick of the lie that the main stream media won't TRY and steal this. The will. They have before. They care only about money.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

37. I agree with that sentiment that the M$M will work hard for R-Money. At the same time,

the message is for us to work very hard and not take anything for granted. I'm most worried about Congress and the state legislatures.

[MjolnirTime]

32. a Running Mate is not going to get Mitt elected.