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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:12 PM

PPP: Barack Obama now leads 49-48 in our national tracking. 3 point gain since he was down by 2 on M

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-up-1-in-national-tracking.html

Obama's favorability and approval both up net 3 points over the last 48 hours, Romney favorability down 3:


With 2 nights of post-debate polling factored in, Obama's cut Romney's lead with independents from 9 points to 2:


Obama's up 54/42 with women, 91/6 with African Americans, 58/37 with Hispanics, and 58/38 with young voters nationally:


Romney's up 56/42 with men, 58/39 with whites, and 55/43 with seniors in our national tracking:


Last week Obama had 3 straight good nights after debate, then things kind of reverted back. We'll see if this one has a more lasting effect

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Reply PPP: Barack Obama now leads 49-48 in our national tracking. 3 point gain since he was down by 2 on M (Original post)
smorkingapple Oct 2012 OP
courseofhistory Oct 2012 #1
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #2
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #3
IrishMidget Oct 2012 #4
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #5
primaryblue Oct 2012 #6
Bleacher Creature Oct 2012 #7
ncav53 Oct 2012 #8
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #10
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #9

Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:14 PM

1. Great News! n/t

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:16 PM

2. They're catching up to the better pollsters

Finally.

It's 2012. There's no excuse for omitting cell phones. Like Nielson getting ratings based on people w/ radios.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:16 PM

3. Could be mere noise, but it's welcome noise. nt

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:17 PM

4. Wow

Look at that Romney momentum go!

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Response to IrishMidget (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:19 PM

5. MITTMENTUUUM!!!!

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Response to IrishMidget (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:21 PM

6. If nothing else, better poll results for Obama

means the media won't be able to amplify Team Romney's hype about having all the momentum in the final two weeks.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:24 PM

7. 58/37 with Hispanics seems low. NT

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Response to Bleacher Creature (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 PM

8. That's what I was thinking

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Response to ncav53 (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:56 AM

10. With smaller sub-groups within a poll there is a greater margin of error.



This is why the polling for hispanics and African Americans is frequently off. In the Survey USA poll of Ohio (O+3) they had Romney winning 22% of the black vote.


What happens is, say you have a poll of 100 people. In a group this size, maybe only 3 of them might be hispanic. If you happen to get one person who likes Romney..... BANG..... you have hispanics giving 33% of their vote to the GOP.


You have to be very careful when pulling out minority data from any poll.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:55 PM

9. Looks like Romney threw $70 million at an insoluble problem

Results: negative.

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