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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2013 (Forum) » The 269-269 scenario does...

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:32 PM

flowomo (4,740 posts)

The 269-269 scenario doesn't take into account the possibility

of the "faithless elector." In that (unlikely) 269-269 scenario, a single elector could throw the election to one candidate or the other by simply voting contrary to the outcome in his/her state. It has happened numerous times. Apparently, 24 states have laws to stop this. But I don't know about the other 26.

How likely is it that, in a tie, at least one elector would decide to be a "historic" figure and decide the election all by him(her)self?

Anyway, just as hurricanes and earthquakes are god's way of teaching us geography, so presidential elections are his/her/its/their way of teaching us civics.

Lots more here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

24 replies, 1401 views

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24 replies	Author	Time	Post
The 269-269 scenario doesn't take into account the possibility (Original post)	flowomo	Oct 2012	OP
269-269 isn't gonna happen! It'll be 331 for O n/t	courseofhistory	Oct 2012	#1
Whatever your prediction is,	flowomo	Oct 2012	#2
Obama: 333	Tx4obama	Oct 2012	#8
I'm going to see your 333 and raise you a couple of states	Coyotl	Oct 2012	#12
Great map, but what about puting GA and MT as blue too.	hrmjustin	Oct 2012	#15
Do join in the prognostication	Coyotl	Oct 2012	#20
I agree with you on the map except for two: Indiana and Arizona	davidpdx	Oct 2012	#22
Obama would need to hold all of his electors, and get one vote from Romney's electors.	hrmjustin	Oct 2012	#3
right but	flowomo	Oct 2012	#4
True because the electors cast their votes in dec and we would know by then.	hrmjustin	Oct 2012	#5
exactly	flowomo	Oct 2012	#6
Not necessarily	RomneyLies	Oct 2012	#7
That is right someone could just keep his mouth shut, and ...	hrmjustin	Oct 2012	#13
If Gore could not get a faithless elector Obama won't either	krawhitham	Oct 2012	#9
this system is a joke and at some point it's got to be replaced with something democratic	CreekDog	Oct 2012	#10
Isn't this election a big enough pain in the ass without	doc03	Oct 2012	#11
+1	ProudProgressiveNow	Oct 2012	#14
I always told my kids: "Anything can happen on any given day."	southerncrone	Oct 2012	#16
This bullshit reminds me of a wall plaque I saw in	doc03	Oct 2012	#17
ROFL	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2012	#18
It'll be one or the other but not a tie. It's just not mathematically likely.	craigmatic	Oct 2012	#19
This is one of the more realistic "tie maps"	fujiyama	Oct 2012	#21
A faithless elector	davidpdx	Oct 2012	#23
The 269-269 scenario is fun speculation for political wonks. It's not gonna happen. n/t	gkhouston	Oct 2012	#24

Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:36 PM

courseofhistory (801 posts)

1. 269-269 isn't gonna happen! It'll be 331 for O n/t

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Response to courseofhistory (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:38 PM

flowomo (4,740 posts)

2. Whatever your prediction is,

it never hurts to know the ins and outs of the system. We can vote, and we can argue -- but we can also learn.

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Response to courseofhistory (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:01 PM

Tx4obama (29,850 posts)

8. Obama: 333

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:28 PM

Coyotl (5,403 posts)

12. I'm going to see your 333 and raise you a couple of states

I'm still at 379!

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Response to Coyotl (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:32 PM

hrmjustin (10,690 posts)

15. Great map, but what about puting GA and MT as blue too.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:24 AM

Coyotl (5,403 posts)

20. Do join in the prognostication

***** Official Pre-Debate Electoral College Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251162857

What's your forecast for the 2012 presidential election? Make your own electoral map:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

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Response to Coyotl (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:31 AM

davidpdx (9,127 posts)

22. I agree with you on the map except for two: Indiana and Arizona

Indiana there is an outside chance Obama could win. The turnout in Indiana in 2008 was pretty high and I think most people were shocked it went for Obama. If turnout is high again, that would be a good sign.

Arizona won't happen. I would bet against Arizona going red this time. I'm not trying to put down or demean any DUers in that state, but I still think it is too conservative to swing. I know what its like to live in a conservative area and it sucks (I grew up in a conservative part of Oregon). Now 4 years from now, that could be a much different story.

In any event, I think 332 will be a more likely outcome.

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:39 PM

hrmjustin (10,690 posts)

3. Obama would need to hold all of his electors, and get one vote from Romney's electors.

If a Romney elector does not vote for Romney, but does not vote for Obama then it changes nothing. A tie means Romney wins. Makes you sick.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:40 PM

flowomo (4,740 posts)

4. right but

the simple fact is a 269-269 result DOES NOT NECESSARILY mean the contest goes to the House, as many people assume.

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Response to flowomo (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:42 PM

hrmjustin (10,690 posts)

5. True because the electors cast their votes in dec and we would know by then.

The house really could do nothing about it if Obama was able to get an elector to switch to him.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:54 PM

flowomo (4,740 posts)

6. exactly

It isn't likely to happen, but the 269 talk is all about election day results, not electoral college voting -- and it's the EC that matters. I am reminded that Andrew Johnson was certain to be convicted by the Senate, until one guy....

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:56 PM

RomneyLies (3,333 posts)

7. Not necessarily

The electoral votes are sealed and they are opened when the results are read in the joint session of Congress.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:30 PM

hrmjustin (10,690 posts)

13. That is right someone could just keep his mouth shut, and ...

... when they open the votes the winner is....

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:02 PM

krawhitham (3,165 posts)

9. If Gore could not get a faithless elector Obama won't either

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:04 PM

CreekDog (37,329 posts)

10. this system is a joke and at some point it's got to be replaced with something democratic

the idea that this could happen is one hundred kinds of wrong.

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:09 PM

doc03 (13,858 posts)

11. Isn't this election a big enough pain in the ass without

bringing up all these scenarios where Romney may win by default. All this horse race bullshit is driving me crazy.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:31 PM

ProudProgressiveNow (3,240 posts)

14. +1

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:41 PM

southerncrone (4,549 posts)

16. I always told my kids: "Anything can happen on any given day."

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:41 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

But I'm thinking positive just for good measure. 333 is good, but I'm going for 379!
Everybody just keep the faith!

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:45 PM

doc03 (13,858 posts)

17. This bullshit reminds me of a wall plaque I saw in

Amish country a while back "Most things people worry about never happen". So why speculate about it until it happens, chill out.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:48 PM

alcibiades_mystery (28,572 posts)

18. ROFL

Absolutely goddamn right.

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:52 PM

craigmatic (3,259 posts)

19. It'll be one or the other but not a tie. It's just not mathematically likely.

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:29 AM

fujiyama (14,627 posts)

21. This is one of the more realistic "tie maps"

Last edited Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:32 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=RDL

I don't see it as very likely to happen. He wins CO, VA, NV, and NH, but loses IA, OH, and WI.

But then again, you never know. Who expected the '00 debacle? I wouldn't worry about it. There's a greater likelihood of losing this outright 268-270.

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:39 AM

davidpdx (9,127 posts)

23. A faithless elector

Especially one that was suppose to vote for Romney that voted for Obama would have to go into the witness protection program for the rest of their life. Think of all the loonies who would go after that person.

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Response to flowomo (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:43 AM

gkhouston (21,642 posts)

24. The 269-269 scenario is fun speculation for political wonks. It's not gonna happen. n/t

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Politics 2013 (Forum)