Reid’s 2010 Win Serves As Warning For Romney In Nevada
Harry Reid was a goner.
In the dying embers of the 2010 midterms, the Senate majority leader appeared to be on the ropes. Polls from a variety of well-known outlets showed tea party champion Sharron Angle leading him in the final weeks of the U.S. Senate race in Nevada. No less of an authority than Nate Silver, who correctly predicted 34 of the 36 Senate races that year, pegged Angle as the favorite in his final forecast.
But on Election Day, the Nevada polls were proven wrong. Reid defeated Angle by nearly 6 points, powered by his labor-led field organization and the state’s increasingly diverse electorate.
Today, less than two weeks before the 2012 election, the ghosts of those failed predictions continue to haunt pollsters in Nevada. Even as recent surveys show the presidential race tightening, with Republican nominee Mitt Romney inching closer to President Obama’s lead, those who know the numbers best say the state remains one of the hardest in the nation to predict.
Gary Segura, a pollster for Latino Decisions and a professor of political science at Stanford University, told TPM that pollsters often neglect to conduct interviews in Spanish — problematic in a state where many residents don’t speak English as a first language. That shortcoming, Segura said, likely undersold Reid’s level of support two years ago and may be occurring again this year.
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