Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:48 PM

30% of NC early voters have been African American (23% in 2008)

"Democrats have a huge 21% margin over Republican votes cast. In 2008, Dems outnumbered Republicans by 11%. (Many Dems here voted for McCain.) The more interesting number to me? Whites make up only 64.7% of voters so far while African Americans make up 30.8% of voters. The final 2008 results were 72% White and 23% African American. Again, while it’s early, this is a sign that minority turnout may not be as low as many pundits and polls expect. For now though, I feel a little bit better about the model’s placement of NC as a Toss-Up, despite what you’ve heard elsewhere. An Obama victory is a big stretch, and I wouldn’t bank on it. But, unlike others, I think the data continues to show it’s possible. Now, if the PPP number tomorrow tells a different story…we’ll see."

http://www.cabpolitical.com/2012/10/24/daily-thoughts-has-obama-stabilized/

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13 replies	Author	Time	Post
30% of NC early voters have been African American (23% in 2008) (Original post)	Welcome_hubby	Oct 2012	OP
PPP is a robocall poll. I don't care what it shows.	LisaL	Oct 2012	#1
Bodes well for Romney, who, according to Survey USA, is collecting 22% of the African American vote	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2012	#2
If Romney is collecting 22 % of African American vote, I am going to eat my hat.	LisaL	Oct 2012	#3
Answer: never	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2012	#4
I think it's very clear what's going on.	LisaL	Oct 2012	#5
Well, when you flip the vote machines.... it goes from DEM to R. Depends on your definition....	Tigress DEM	Oct 2012	#10
i believe it was ike ,do not worry your hat is safe n/t	-LOKI -BAD FOR YA	Oct 2012	#12
+1	ProudProgressiveNow	Oct 2012	#13
Come on NC we need you!	Rosa Luxemburg	Oct 2012	#6
OK	John2	Oct 2012	#7
Remember it is not who votes, but who counts the votes that matter n/t	dem1977	Oct 2012	#8
Blacks are driving the Democratic early turnout in NC	VirginiaTarheel	Oct 2012	#9
Go NC Go!!!	GetTheRightVote	Oct 2012	#11

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:50 PM

LisaL (22,818 posts)

1. PPP is a robocall poll. I don't care what it shows.

And those are actual voters. Who am I going to believe?

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:51 PM

alcibiades_mystery (28,411 posts)

2. Bodes well for Romney, who, according to Survey USA, is collecting 22% of the African American vote

in Ohio.

It's the Ro-mentum and enthusiasm gap! Doncha feel it?

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:53 PM

LisaL (22,818 posts)

3. If Romney is collecting 22 % of African American vote, I am going to eat my hat.

When was the last time a republican candidate for president collected that percentage of African American vote?

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Response to LisaL (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:56 PM

alcibiades_mystery (28,411 posts)

4. Answer: never

Romney's rather on the other side of that divide. He often gets the utterly shocking result of receiving 0% of the African American vote, which, quite honestly, is a remarkable feat. If he ends up with more than 6%, it will be considered a miracle of political persuasion. And yet, there today in the Survey USA poll that shows Obama UP by 3% in Ohio, we see crosstabs that give Romney 22% of the African American vote! And a professional polling form reported this as if nothing in their numbers was amiss. A monumental joke.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:58 PM

LisaL (22,818 posts)

5. I think it's very clear what's going on.

Some Romney voters are pretending they are African Americans in order to make it appear Romney is getting African American votes.
I don't know how it could be possibly explained any other way.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:33 PM

Tigress DEM (7,167 posts)

10. Well, when you flip the vote machines.... it goes from DEM to R. Depends on your definition....

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:34 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

of "collecting the votes".

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Response to LisaL (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:32 AM

-LOKI -BAD FOR YA (305 posts)

12. i believe it was ike ,do not worry your hat is safe n/t

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Response to LisaL (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:39 AM

ProudProgressiveNow (3,239 posts)

13. +1

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:01 PM

Rosa Luxemburg (22,003 posts)

6. Come on NC we need you!

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:14 PM

John2 (1,730 posts)

7. OK

African Americans are not excited to turn out for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Michael Jordan endorsed President Obama. Romney has that guy in Denver and President Obama has MJ. I live in Durham and have not met any African American supporting Romney. Reggie Love is from North Carolina and works for the Obama Campaign. I have connections in the Ft. Bragg area as well as New Hanover County and Robeson County. African Americans in both counties are heavily Democratic. I also know the areas in Greensboro and Winston Salem. I have friends and family in those areas and some that attended North Carolina A&T and Winston Salem State. That is Obama area. So believe a person familiar with the area or Gravis Marketing.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:19 PM

dem1977 (18 posts)

8. Remember it is not who votes, but who counts the votes that matter n/t

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:28 PM

VirginiaTarheel (798 posts)

9. Blacks are driving the Democratic early turnout in NC

Which bodes very well for Obama, since Black Democrats are voting for Obama by a 95 plus margin in the state. These are not just some blue dog Dems voting early in NC.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:45 PM

GetTheRightVote (5,280 posts)

11. Go NC Go!!!

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:45 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

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