Jon Ralston: Why Romney hasn't surrendered Nevada

Mitt Romney campaigned in Nevada today for the second consecutive day. The question is: Why?

Any reasonable analysis of the early voting numbers so far shows that the Democratic machine is crushing the Republicans’ Rube Goldberg contraption. In Clark County, the Democrats have a 25,000-voter lead. Even in Washoe County, the Democrats are holding their own.

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I have been reliably told that Romney’s internals in Nevada show him up a point – but some of those folks are smart enough to give the margin of error to the Democratic machine. But that makes it a race, so they aren’t going anywhere.

(Obama's polls here consistently have shown him up by 5-8 points. Mark Mellman, who consistently showed Harry Reid winning in 2010, is doing those surveys.)

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Can they mitigate the natural demographic deficits and save the state, if not for Romney, for Sen. Dean Heller, Rep. Joe Heck, Danny Tarkanian and Republicans seeking to control the state Senate? (Heck is considered a favorite by both sides, but the new seat is seen as up for grabs, with Tark seen as barley holding on now as Democrats coalesce. And the state Senate is a true toss-up, with Republicans needing to win four of five seats and now deeply concerned their candidates could be washed away by registration and turnout.)

I think Romney also is playing here because he can – the money is there – and because he needs to, as one wag put it, “show off for his investors,” including Sheldon Adelson. This is about what happens after the election, too, even if Romney becomes president and has lost Nevada. He at least has to give it the old college try.