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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:08 PM

"Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney"

Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney

By Mark Halperin at Time

http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/24/the-latest-view-from-one-prudential-plaza-why-the-obama-campaign-is-still-so-confident-about-beating-romney/

"SNIP..............................................

Here’s what senior campaign officials said Tuesday in each of these key areas:

THE COMPOSITION OF THE ELECTORATE:

Jim Messina told reporters on that conference call, “We think that people aren’t getting it always right about who and what this electorate’s going to be comprised of on Election Day. I think we continue to think it’s going to be a higher percentage of minorities and young people than some are forecasting.”

Added Messina:

“The Republicans are anticipating that minority turnout will drop off, but we already know that’s not the case, and that’s important as you look at some polls here. The electorate has been increasingly and consistently more diverse. Minority voting is going to reach an all-time high this year, projected as high as 28% of all voters in the ‘12 election. Most new registrants over the past three months are under 30, and nearly all—four in five—are youth, women, African American or Latino. You know, these are all groups that strongly support the President’s re-election. Voter registration has increased most among Latinos and African Americans…”

And a senior official told me this, “It seems like the Romney campaign is counting on a big drop off in minority voters and young voters to make their theory of the case work but there’s no indication in the historical data or in the early vote data that that’s happening or bound to happen. It seems like it’s been refuted in the polls, right now.”

And here’s my colloquy with another top Obama adviser:

..............................................SNIP"

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply "Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney" (Original post)
applegrove Oct 2012 OP
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #1
Democratopia Oct 2012 #2
spike91nz Oct 2012 #3
abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 #5
DCBob Oct 2012 #4
underpants Oct 2012 #6
Dalai_1 Oct 2012 #7

Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:10 PM

1. I listened to the entire conference call

 

It was very interesting, and yes, they exude confidence. Should be required listening for those on the ledge.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:23 PM

2. And the greatest driver of minority high turnout is

 

The GOP with their policies that penalize minorities and their attempts to stop them from votiing.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:29 PM

3. phraseology

Someone please tell O to stop using the phrase "if I you elect me". It should always be, "when you elect me". A basic language style that removes the implication of resistance to the idea.

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Response to spike91nz (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:35 PM

5. I like the President's version better.

And watching the debates, I think Romney does too although he seems to have been told by his handlers to use the "when I'm president" formulation. He has to catch himself, however.

I think the more humble servant approach wins more votes than the cocky assurance approach.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:32 PM

4. The underlying dynamics have never changed and they heavily favor the President.

The only way Romney wins is by cheating or by some major disastrous news event that gets blamed on the President.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:47 PM

6. I read this today - The fact that it is Halperin tells a lot

Minorities don't change as a category but "young voters" do

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:22 PM

7. I know it pained Halperin

to have to print something this definitive and positive about
President Obama's campaign..

Jim Messina sure gave a structured interview..if he had
said one word that Halperin could have misinterpreted or
translated in a negative way it would have been in print
and on MSNBC in the morning...

Great Post..thank you!

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