5. Maybe. I think there's legitimately a 50/50 shot of there being an EV/PV split this year.
Obama I would say is about 80-90% to win the electoral college, with Romney being slightly more likely to win the popular vote--OFA isn't going to turn out people in Texas or California, but rabid Obama hatred will turn the Republicans out across the country.
State polls are looking great for us, but national polls, yeesh not good news there. Looks like Romney by about .75 - 1.25%.
But, national popular vote wins the spin room, not the Oval Office.