DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast-Obama 86.34% Chance Of Winning

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

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5 replies	Author	Time	Post
DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast-Obama 86.34% Chance Of Winning (Original post)	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	OP
Keep your eyes on Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada/Iowa	ncav53	Oct 2012	#1
Thank you! K&R!	hogwyld	Oct 2012	#2
Their EV and popular vote projections don't line up, imo.	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#3
I Noticed That	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#4
Maybe. I think there's legitimately a 50/50 shot of there being an EV/PV split this year.	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#5

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:26 PM

ncav53 (168 posts)

1. Keep your eyes on Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada/Iowa

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:34 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

Obama is already at 271 with these states he's leading in.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:38 PM

hogwyld (3,435 posts)

2. Thank you! K&R!

Hope this stays like this for 13 more days.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:42 PM

geek tragedy (25,684 posts)

3. Their EV and popular vote projections don't line up, imo.

If Obama wins the national popular vote, he'll pick up CO and VA as well, it would seem.

VA closely matched the national popular vote.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:50 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

4. I Noticed That

They are political science professors.

I like this professor's model. He's more bullish on Obama:

http://votamatic.org/into-the-home-stretch/#comments

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:59 PM

geek tragedy (25,684 posts)

5. Maybe. I think there's legitimately a 50/50 shot of there being an EV/PV split this year.

Obama I would say is about 80-90% to win the electoral college, with Romney being slightly more likely to win the popular vote--OFA isn't going to turn out people in Texas or California, but rabid Obama hatred will turn the Republicans out across the country.

State polls are looking great for us, but national polls, yeesh not good news there. Looks like Romney by about .75 - 1.25%.

But, national popular vote wins the spin room, not the Oval Office.

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