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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:17 PM

DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast-Obama 86.34% Chance Of Winning

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

5 replies, 1277 views

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Reply DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast-Obama 86.34% Chance Of Winning (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP
ncav53 Oct 2012 #1
hogwyld Oct 2012 #2
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #3
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #4
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #5

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:26 PM

1. Keep your eyes on Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada/Iowa

Obama is already at 271 with these states he's leading in.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:38 PM

2. Thank you! K&R!

Hope this stays like this for 13 more days.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:42 PM

3. Their EV and popular vote projections don't line up, imo.

If Obama wins the national popular vote, he'll pick up CO and VA as well, it would seem.

VA closely matched the national popular vote.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:50 PM

4. I Noticed That

They are political science professors.

I like this professor's model. He's more bullish on Obama:


http://votamatic.org/into-the-home-stretch/#comments

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:59 PM

5. Maybe. I think there's legitimately a 50/50 shot of there being an EV/PV split this year.

Obama I would say is about 80-90% to win the electoral college, with Romney being slightly more likely to win the popular vote--OFA isn't going to turn out people in Texas or California, but rabid Obama hatred will turn the Republicans out across the country.

State polls are looking great for us, but national polls, yeesh not good news there. Looks like Romney by about .75 - 1.25%.

But, national popular vote wins the spin room, not the Oval Office.

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