Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:04 PM
Drunken Irishman (26,388 posts)
Obama's performance compared to polls in '08 swing states (most underestimated his margins).
Though the polls pointed to an Obama victory in 2008, many of the polls underestimated Obama's margins ... some significantly. In fact, in all but two swing states, Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama out-performed the average of polls:
In some states, the margins were pretty large ... specifically in New Mexico and Nevada. Yes, some of those differences don't look huge. But think about this: The polls in Virginia are essentially tied. An additional 1.9 points solidifies it in Obama's corner. In Ohio, where his average is 2.1, an additional 1.5 gives him a 3.6 point victory. That's near the level he saw in '08.
Basically, what this suggests is that most swing states underestimated Obama's support ... or at least undercounted it in the polls. On its face, the margins weren't dramatic. But in a close race, it could dramatically shift the race in his favor.
If Obama out-polls the polls similar this go around, he will win Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and potentially Florida.
That's why ground game and turnout is so important. But even four years ago, it seemed the media was underestimating Obama's GOTV effort, as he averaged nearly two-points better in swing states than the polls suggested.
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Obama's performance compared to polls in '08 swing states (most underestimated his margins). (Original post)
|Drunken Irishman||Oct 2012||OP|
|geek tragedy||Oct 2012||#3|
Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:13 PM
geek tragedy (40,099 posts)
3. Of course, the question in GOTV is how much have the respective GOTV
efforts gotten, on a state level.
So far, it seems that we're still much better in IA, OH, and NV.
On the other hand, the GOP has seemed to close the gap completely in CO.
Virginia and Wisconsin are harder to tell--not much early voting.
Part of the blowout in 2008 was not only Obama's great ground game, but McLame's lack of one.