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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:27 PM

US President '12: Romney (R) 49.0% Obama (D) 48.0% (Oct. 23 - ABC/WaPo)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/24/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/

Among indies, 40% said their impression of Romney was better after the debates. 10% said the same of Obama.

Party ID composition of new WaPo-ABC tracking poll: 34% D, 30% R, 32% Indie

Don't like that party composition and debate impression numbers. Seems this poll skewed Republican but Obama is still within MoE so I take this as a good sign.

33 replies, 2568 views

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Arrow 33 replies Author Time Post
Reply US President '12: Romney (R) 49.0% Obama (D) 48.0% (Oct. 23 - ABC/WaPo) (Original post)
smorkingapple Oct 2012 OP
Thrill Oct 2012 #1
FVZA_Colonel Oct 2012 #2
TroyD Oct 2012 #3
FVZA_Colonel Oct 2012 #18
Azathoth Oct 2012 #4
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #5
hoosierlib Oct 2012 #6
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #7
Tarheel_Dem Oct 2012 #8
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #10
fugop Oct 2012 #9
dennis4868 Oct 2012 #11
ncav53 Oct 2012 #12
Texin Oct 2012 #14
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #17
ncav53 Oct 2012 #19
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #16
Texin Oct 2012 #13
drhobo Oct 2012 #25
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #31
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #15
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #20
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #22
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #23
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #28
ProSense Oct 2012 #24
Jennicut Oct 2012 #26
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #29
Jennicut Oct 2012 #30
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #32
DCBob Oct 2012 #21
ROBROX Oct 2012 #27
amborin Oct 2012 #33

Response to smorkingapple (Original post)


Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:29 PM

2. How on Earth could anyone's impression of Romney have gotten better after the debates?

He bullied his way through the first one, and got his ass handed to him in the second and the third.

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Response to FVZA_Colonel (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:30 PM

3. Some people thought Obama was too aggressive

But in any event, ABC has consistently been one of the worst pollsters for Obama this year, even when he was at a peak in the polls earlier this year.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:57 PM

18. That's just it: he was never worse than Romney as far as "agressiveness" goes

(and I don't mean to say he was like Romney in that way), but Romney gets lauded for what's decried in Obama.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:33 PM

4. Romney gets caught by the moderator lying to over 64 million people, and his rating goes up

among independents.

Pretty much tells you all you need to know.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:34 PM

5. This poll is weird, check the debate #'s!!

Q: I have a question about the presidential debate between (Obama) and (Romney) Monday night. From what you've seen, heard or read about it - who, in your opinion, won the debate? (Among likely voters)
Hide Results

Detailed View

Obama
48
%
Romney
24
(VOL) Neither/Draw/Tie
18

So how the fuck do people have a more positive impression of Romney if he lost like this?

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:35 PM

6. Ignore this poll

It was taken before the last debate (Oct 18 through the 22nd)...

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Response to hoosierlib (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:37 PM

7. Wrong, dates are Oct. 20-23 which includes 1 day after debate.. There's a ? in there about who won

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:37 PM

8. Why would you be concerned about "impressions" of Obama getting better. People's impressions....

of the president are reflected in his job approval, and personal favorables. He's been president for four years, and people already know him, not so with Mitt Romney. He didn't have huge negatives going into the debates, Romney did. It seems quite natural that a good "performance" would boost some people's "impressions". I think your "selected" quote is meaningless in the big scheme of things. We still elect presidents by the electoral college, and until that changes, this and any other national poll is pretty useless.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:38 PM

10. I could agree with that...

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:37 PM

9. Better impression since before debates...

That makes sense really. His image pre-ALL debates was in the shitter. Nowhere to go but up. It was inevitable that people who had paid no attention would like him a little better. Doesn't mean they like him a LOT better tho.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:38 PM

11. what's wrong with the

Party ID composition?

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:43 PM

12. As long as Obama continues leading in Ohio, Wis, Nevada/Iowa, Penn and Michigan,

the national polls don't matter.

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Response to ncav53 (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:50 PM

14. But they comprise the national totals don't they?

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Response to Texin (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:56 PM

17. It doesn't work like that.

Obama is not campaigning nationally. So if he loses 10pts in California and loses 15pts in Idaho and Arkansas or whatever, etc it's going to show in these polls and make it tied. But those states are not in play. Only the battleground states are, that's why they are battleground states. THOSE polls are the only important ones. Don't be distracted by people constantly posting national polls, it's a waste of time. It's getting embarrassing at this point, this obsession. The only thing that counts 2wks out is the electoral math. That is it. That is all. And the math is locked, yeah I said it, locked for 270 for Obama. But hey, why pay attention to the real news from the campaign and inside the beltway when you can see just how much crap Depends can really hold before you change them.

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Response to Texin (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:58 PM

19. Sure, but Romney seems to have a bigger lead in the red states than Obama has in the blue states,

which factors in these national polls. Obama can lose every red state voter and still win this election.

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Response to ncav53 (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:51 PM

16. Seriously. You'd think people would know better

by now. It's getting kind of embarrassing at this point.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:49 PM

13. Why is there such an attempt to frame the polls this year with those of 2008 instead of 2004?

Wouldn't that be a better comparison? We have an incumbent president and a challenger - similar dynamics as 2004. And maybe my memory of the thing is shot, but wasn't Bush already becoming very unpopular with the electorate then as opposed to Obama's 53% approval rating.

The pundits seem to be trying to compare this with the Obama/McCain election and I just don't think they're comparable.

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Response to Texin (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:10 PM

25. Palin alone makes 2008 an oddity

 

By election day most saw her real self, which helped Obama's numbers with independents. As objectionable as everyone here finds Romney and Ryan, they are more likely to sway an uninformed voter than that idiot from Alaska. Its addition by subtraction.

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Response to Texin (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:28 PM

31. I Always Compare 012 Numbers To 08 Numbers

Makes more sense...

Two polarizing incumbents. I don't think the president is a polarizing figure but the right wing has made him into one. Therefore we have to make sure more voters on our side of the divide which I think they are.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:50 PM

15. Not a great poll for us, but hopefully it will rebound later to our advantage. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:00 PM

20. But WHY. Please explain WHY it matters

at this point. Less then 2 WEEKS to go. The swing state polling has remained stable for weeks. So why do we have to give a crap about the nationals. Makes. NO. SENSE. It's not like this is the first time we are experiencing an Obama campaign. They aim for the math. All available data so far shows they HAVE THE MATH. So why do we the base need to give a crap about the national polling. Even the campaign has tried to set this obsession straight. I swear it's like the campaign is just talking over the base's head every time.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:02 PM

22. The most important thing is the electoral college.

At the same time, winning the popular vote matters.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #22)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:06 PM

23. But the nationals so far are a poor

indicator for the popular vote. Unless they all show a convergence of strong Romney lead, there's no way to call it until Election day. So again it's just an unnecessary distraction. Like a smoke alarm, unless it's going off what's the point of constantly looking for fire.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #23)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:37 PM

28. National polls are the only indicator for the popular vote.

Surveying 10 swing states won't tell us anything about the national popular vote.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:06 PM

24. It's no change from yesterday. n/t

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:16 PM

26. Eh, just throw it into the rest.

Pollster has it as R 47.2% and O 46.9%

Statistically a tie. Obama is up in some trackers and Romney is up in some trackers.
At this point I don't which tracker is right. I have given up on that. I know Rasmussen is terrible and Gallup was really off until today.
The rest seem very reasonable. One to two points ahead or behind in almost every national poll is statistically not important.

This truly comes down to the electoral college and what states are in play. Romney also has polled very high in the south in certain polls and electorally the south is meaningless for him. And with the national polling so close, the popular vote really could go either way. Remember that Bush led Gore in the popular vote polling by about 0.6% in the final average polling and did not win the popular vote.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #26)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:08 PM

29. Crunched the #'s and this poll assumes 75% white electorate--just a hair more diverse than 2008

The big problem is that it shows Obama drawing only 39% of white voters--that's worse than Kerry did.

Obama won 43% of white voters in 2008.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #29)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:25 PM

30. Which is why I find issues with almost every poll out there.

In order to stop going crazy I have decided to just look at the averages.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #30)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:34 PM

32. In general, I ignore most polling and polling averages.

I only look at live-interviewer, reputable pollsters that call cellphones.

No robopolls, no internet polls, etc.

Unfortunately, this is a very reputable poll with solid methodology. It doesn't undercount minorities. It calls people with cell phones, etc.

I know the electoral college is what counts, but the thought of losing the popular vote to a sneering plutocrat like Romney, really makes me depressed about this country.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:02 PM

21. Give it a few more days for the debate and other latest news to take effect.

or simply ignore national polls and focus on the states.

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Response to smorkingapple (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:19 PM

27. DEFINE INDEPENDENT?

 

I always thought independents were GOP members who left the GOP but still voted GOP. So there is very little difference if you have 30% GOP and 32% independent. This provides 62% who think the same way.
This survey is SKEWED but the GOP got the answer they wanted to see.

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