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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:09 PM

Why Is Ohio so Competitive?

I'm not from Ohio, so I don't know much about the state's dynamics. Obviously, there are a lot of rural areas which lean right, but my gosh, there are several major urban areas, plus several good-sized college towns. Ohio greatly benefited from the auto industry rescue and organized labor in the state is pretty strong.

Given this, why are we not way ahead in Ohio?

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Arrow 18 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why Is Ohio so Competitive? (Original post)
BlueDemKev Oct 2012 OP
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #1
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #2
BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #3
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #9
Firebirds01 Oct 2012 #10
Firebirds01 Oct 2012 #14
JI7 Oct 2012 #4
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #5
JiminyJominy Oct 2012 #6
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #12
JI7 Oct 2012 #7
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #8
RandySF Oct 2012 #11
Firebirds01 Oct 2012 #13
Firebirds01 Oct 2012 #17
BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #18
Marsala Oct 2012 #15
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #16

Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:10 PM

1. It's a lean right state

where Obama is farther ahead there than nationally. It is not barely competitive, and it is telling that when push comes to shove, no one will say that Romney is going to actually win it.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:20 PM

2. Not enough big cities

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) and Franklin County (Columbus) have to outvote a lot of rural areas.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2008

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:23 PM

3. What about Cincinnati?

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:28 PM

9. Cincinnati is only a net 30,000 votes

I was focused on 100,000+.

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:28 PM

10. What the hell are you talking about

 

Cincinnati
Dayton
Cleveland
Columbus
Akron
Canton
Youngstown
Toledo


All due respect

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:44 PM

14. Id also like to point out that Texas

 

has several pretty big cities but they vote red as red can be when it comes to the Presidency.


Plus the Longhorns suck and so does the Big XII


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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:25 PM

4. as you say, there are rural areas and urban areas , it's working cass but religious types also etc

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:26 PM

5. Because no Democrat has ever won Ohio by a large margin recently...

Even the guy in your avatar, in a reelection landslide back in '96, still managed to only win Ohio by six points. That tells you everything you need to know about the state and why it's always a tough one for either candidate to win by a large margin.

Here's the margin of victory in Ohio over the last few elections:

2008: Obama +4
2004: Bush +2
2000: Bush +3
1996: Clinton +6
1992: Clinton +2
1988: Bush +11
1984: Reagan +19
1980: Reagan +10
1976: Carter +.27

Outside the 80s, Ohio has been one of the most competitive states in the country.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:26 PM

6. As I've Been Saying...

Ohio will go down as the most ungrateful state ever if they go Romney this election.

One man went to bat for the state and the other said let its main industry go Bankrupt. Not sure why this state is so close.

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Response to JiminyJominy (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:30 PM

12. Good grief. Thanks for your CONCERN. nt.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:27 PM

7. for This Election Only, at this point, i don't think Ohio is as competitive as the Media

is making it out to be.

it's not california, new york, or even pennsylvania or wisconsin.

but Obama has consistently held a lead. the lead has at times changed but even during Romney's first debate surge he didin't seem to lead in ohio.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:28 PM

8. Why do you think it is? nt.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:28 PM

11. Competitive, not a tossup.

It's leaning pretty hard toward Obama, but we have to work it to the end.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:33 PM

13. Im FROM ohio, I know why!!!!!!!!1111

 

It is 4 different states. All (generally) equal in population or economic influence.

Northeast Ohio (Cleveland Area): East coast. Urban and industrial, Blue collar. a lot of ethnic communities, great deal of diversity.

Southeast Ohio: Appalachia. Coal mines and hills and hollers. Economic depression. Social conservatism. Think west virginai sort of thing.

Northwest Ohio: Midwestern. Flat as hell. Small towns. German catholics. Field of Dreams sort of thing. Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture. Social conservative but no tolerance for Wall street/big business types. Economic democrats social conservatives

Southwest: Mix between cities, aerospace, and big business. This is where we have the most diversity among voters (not raicial diversity but who will vote for either party). Cincinnati area is very republican (but not crazy snake handler types, they are the gordon gekko types). The miami valley might as well be a surrogate of the USAF because of the base. Big mix. About 15 major colleges in the area too so education is big. really the key to winning the state. the BBC said Clark County (in this area) was the demographically perfect representation of the country.

so four different states.

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Response to Firebirds01 (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:50 PM

17. Followup example

 

If I say we need to invest in alternative energy, northwest ohio says "yeaaaaaaaaah" because wind energy is HUGE HUGE there. But southeast ohio says "boooooo because there arent many union towns"

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Response to Firebirds01 (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 11:14 AM

18. Thank you for your insight

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:47 PM

15. It's actually amazing that we're as ahead in Ohio as the polls suggest

In the past, it's leaned red, more like where Florida currently is.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:49 PM

16. It's traditionally right leaning, but it's not all that competitive this cycle.

It seems more competitive because it's so essential.

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