Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:11 PM

BraKez2 (191 posts)

TIME - Ohio poll - Obama +5

Link
http://swampland.time.com/2012/10/24/time-poll-obama-leads-by-5-in-ohio/

43 replies, 3449 views

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43 replies	Author	Time	Post
TIME - Ohio poll - Obama +5 (Original post)	BraKez2	Oct 2012	OP
Fuckin' A!	Azathoth	Oct 2012	#1
K&R	flamingdem	Oct 2012	#2
Much more credible than robojunk from Rasmussen or even PPP. nt	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#3
WindyCityGardener	WindyCityGardener	Oct 2012	#40
This message was hidden by jury decision.	WindyCityGardener	Oct 2012	#41
Among people who have already voted	naviman	Oct 2012	#4
This message was hidden by jury decision.	WindyCityGardener	Oct 2012	#42
It's over	Maximumnegro	Oct 2012	#5
Don't Get Cocky!!	BlueDemKev	Oct 2012	#31
No, I'll be cocky	Maximumnegro	Oct 2012	#37
Well, you know me, I'm never complacent...	BlueDemKev	Oct 2012	#43
Finally, some good news	kansasobama	Oct 2012	#6
PPP had O +4 in NV today	DrToast	Oct 2012	#9
Finally? There's been good news the whole time	Maximumnegro	Oct 2012	#14
I don't know	teabaggersarestupid	Oct 2012	#24
Yeah, but we'd better have our BEST relief pitcher...	BlueDemKev	Oct 2012	#32
Booyah!	DrToast	Oct 2012	#7
The More The Better	colsohlibgal	Oct 2012	#8
We weren't ahead in the polls in 2004, though.	MSMITH33156	Oct 2012	#12
Oh God. There is nothing similar to 2004.	Maximumnegro	Oct 2012	#17
Actually	teabaggersarestupid	Oct 2012	#25
It will be close	kansasobama	Oct 2012	#10
WI looks solid.	Jennicut	Oct 2012	#16
I agree	teabaggersarestupid	Oct 2012	#28
I'm having trouble getting the page to load	TroyD	Oct 2012	#11
Ohio is starting to look like more solid for Obama.	Jennicut	Oct 2012	#13
A 2-3 point lead is NOT what I would call "solid"...	BlueDemKev	Oct 2012	#33
If you look at the 2004 final averages in RCP for Kerry and Bush	Jennicut	Oct 2012	#36
This poll, plus the Nevada poll someone postd earlier...	Welcome_hubby	Oct 2012	#15
Indeed. This is the worst polling day in a long time for Mitt.	DrToast	Oct 2012	#21
Yep	teabaggersarestupid	Oct 2012	#30
Ohio + Wisconsin=4 more years! nt	aaaaaa5a	Oct 2012	#18
Wisconsin - RCP=Obama +2.7, Pollster=Obama +3.3	krawhitham	Oct 2012	#27
'the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted'	TroyD	Oct 2012	#19
Yes!	ProudProgressiveNow	Oct 2012	#20
RCP has posted the TIME poll!	TroyD	Oct 2012	#22
Cheer up, Romney fans. You still have Arkansas!	bushisanidiot	Oct 2012	#23
Ohio, Nevada/Iowa, and Wisconsin and it's over for Romney	ncav53	Oct 2012	#26
And "TIME poll" is now trending	Inuca	Oct 2012	#29
K&R	amborin	Oct 2012	#34
Exit polls had Kerry	sulphurdunn	Oct 2012	#35
It looks more and more like Ohio is IT. Sucks that this gets so close.	johnnyrocket	Oct 2012	#38
Wake me up after Obama wins....	CaliGal	Oct 2012	#39

Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:12 PM

Azathoth (2,399 posts)

1. Fuckin' A!

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:12 PM

flamingdem (22,665 posts)

2. K&R

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:12 PM

geek tragedy (25,535 posts)

3. Much more credible than robojunk from Rasmussen or even PPP. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 08:25 AM

WindyCityGardener (3 posts)

40. WindyCityGardener

Shouldn't this be against the law ? Time Magazine has a poll out for Ohio. The poll is weighted 9% for Obama. In the poll they say Obama is winning independents 53 % to Romney's 38%. But if you go to the real poll. The numbers for Independents are Romney 55% and Obama 32%. Now they are just lying about their own polls. They continue to say the poll is not weighted. But it clearly is. 273 Democrats and 206 Republicans.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

WindyCityGardener This message was hidden by Jury decision.

Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:13 PM

naviman (102 posts)

4. Among people who have already voted

It's 60-30. Hey, where did the "enthusiasm gap" go?!

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Response to naviman (Reply #4)

WindyCityGardener This message was hidden by Jury decision.

Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:16 PM

Maximumnegro (920 posts)

5. It's over

Sorry I know a bunch of you will shake your head, throw salt over your shoulder, sprinkle vegan chicken blood around the house but Romney has NEVER. N-E-V-E-R led in OH. That 2 OH polls this week >+2 for Obama.

Romney cannot make up the deficit in early voting.

The O campaign said today in Halperin interview for the umpteenth time they have a significant lead there and IA and WI.

It's done. So let's run up the score. Get NC and hell, AZ.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:02 PM

BlueDemKev (2,590 posts)

31. Don't Get Cocky!!

Polls are constantly shifting back and forth and we CANNOT let up in the handful of must-win states for us (OH, WI, IA, and NV). We need to keep our resources in preserving that firewall, not by dicking around in red-leaning states that we're most likely not going to win this time.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #31)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:26 PM

Maximumnegro (920 posts)

37. No, I'll be cocky

because the polls HAVEN'T been shifting back and forth in OH,WI,IA and NV. That's what the campaign has been saying over and over. The race became stagnant in those states after the first debate.

I'm just being a good Dem and listening to the campaign, not amnesiac poll-watchers in the media or interweb. And the campaign has been right every time, with everyone else catching up a week later.

As for dicking around w/ red states I'll leave it to the campaign. Per usual am sure they are already several steps ahead if they're reaching out to any potential red pickups.

So yeah, I'm already glowing cause O's got this.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #37)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 09:45 AM

BlueDemKev (2,590 posts)

43. Well, you know me, I'm never complacent...

...but if Obama does in fact win this baby, the beers will be on me, brother!

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:16 PM

kansasobama (224 posts)

6. Finally, some good news

Oh! man! I was getting worried with the tight polls.

Now, if only we can get Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada....

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:18 PM

DrToast (3,967 posts)

9. PPP had O +4 in NV today

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:23 PM

Maximumnegro (920 posts)

14. Finally? There's been good news the whole time

I swear it's like Dems hit a reset button when they go to bed everynight and wake up screaming about Romney.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:54 PM

teabaggersarestupid (111 posts)

24. I don't know

The polls have been scary lately. Ohio has been super tight. +5 is a sight for sore eyes. Quinnipiac had the same margin but that poll leans left so it's nice to get the +5 confirmed by another credible poll. Combined with +3 for surveyusa and +3 for Fox News, things are looking good in Ohio.

It's like we had a one run lead in the bottom of the 8th inning and the +5 Time poll is like hitting a home run to put us up by 2. You could say we've been winning the whole time in Ohio but it's nice to get an insurance run late in the game.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:03 PM

BlueDemKev (2,590 posts)

32. Yeah, but we'd better have our BEST relief pitcher...

...in for the 9th inning in Ohio. It is an absolute MUST-WIN state for us, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:17 PM

DrToast (3,967 posts)

7. Booyah!

This thing may not be as close as it looks.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:18 PM

colsohlibgal (980 posts)

8. The More The Better

I'm paranoid, if it's close enough, it could be 2004 revisited. That's in my Binkley like closet of anxieties.

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:21 PM

MSMITH33156 (329 posts)

12. We weren't ahead in the polls in 2004, though.

We thought superior turnout and "cell phone bias" in polling was understating our voting. We were wrong. Bush might have pulled a fast on in Ohio, but he legitimately won the popular vote. And he was leading in most polls. Save one outlier:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

The polls definitely pointed to a Bush win in Ohio.

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:24 PM

Maximumnegro (920 posts)

17. Oh God. There is nothing similar to 2004.

if anything Obama is Bush. Ugh, come on.

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:56 PM

teabaggersarestupid (111 posts)

25. Actually

The Ohio polls are almost identical to 2008. Things are looking up and time is running out on the Mitt$ter.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:19 PM

kansasobama (224 posts)

10. It will be close

No, it will be close unless Florida goes to Obama

Do not count chickens. WI and NH are still iffy although we may be ahead slightly. Even in Ohio, we still need to vote.

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:24 PM

Jennicut (25,338 posts)

16. WI looks solid.

Even Angus-Reid had it O 51 R 46 today.

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:57 PM

teabaggersarestupid (111 posts)

28. I agree

I'd like to see some more polling in WI. If Obama wins Ohio (and he most likely will), it's hard to imagine him losing WI though.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:20 PM

TroyD (4,468 posts)

11. I'm having trouble getting the page to load

Are a lot of people trying to get in at once?

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:22 PM

Jennicut (25,338 posts)

13. Ohio is starting to look like more solid for Obama.

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:24 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

The sample of Dems may be generous (D+9) in this poll but it was D+6 in 2008. On Pollster at Huffpost, Obama is up by about 2 points. I would say 2 to 3 points seems about right.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:05 PM

BlueDemKev (2,590 posts)

33. A 2-3 point lead is NOT what I would call "solid"...

...especially considering most polls margin of error is +/- 3 pts anyway.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #33)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:20 PM

Jennicut (25,338 posts)

36. If you look at the 2004 final averages in RCP for Kerry and Bush

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:22 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

they are scarily almost dead on. I know some people have issues in Ohio and NM but almost every state was correct in accuracy. Romney has not really ever led in Ohio in a significant way. Gravis and Pulse Marketing (an offshoot of Ramussen) hardly count.

2 to 3 points is huge in a close race, especially with the early voting. In my opinion, the factors in Ohio may lead it to be a close race but not favorable to Romney winning it. Per this poll, the voters there think their economy has improved. That is not helpful for Romney.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:24 PM

Welcome_hubby (312 posts)

15. This poll, plus the Nevada poll someone postd earlier...

spell big trouble for Romney..., especially because...

1) Polls have not fully reflected the post-debate reality (too early), and
2) It's plausible that the Idiana wacko will hurt Romney with his abortion comments today..

good news.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:28 PM

DrToast (3,967 posts)

21. Indeed. This is the worst polling day in a long time for Mitt.

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Response to DrToast (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:59 PM

teabaggersarestupid (111 posts)

30. Yep

I would hope Nate Silver has Obama at close to 75% tonight.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:25 PM

aaaaaa5a (3,701 posts)

18. Ohio + Wisconsin=4 more years! nt

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #18)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:57 PM

krawhitham (3,148 posts)

27. Wisconsin - RCP=Obama +2.7, Pollster=Obama +3.3

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:26 PM

TroyD (4,468 posts)

19. 'the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted'

It's important to note that Obama's lead comes from the early voting, which is a great testament to the work the Obama Team did in this area.

But as TIME mentions, Obama & Romney are tied in the current voting. So it could still be close, depending on what happens with the way the votes are counted etc. It's good to have room for error (eg. Republican fraud) so nothing should be taken for granted until the state is called for Obama on November 6.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:26 PM

ProudProgressiveNow (3,239 posts)

20. Yes!

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:31 PM

TroyD (4,468 posts)

22. RCP has posted the TIME poll!

Bet that was hard to do.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:33 PM

bushisanidiot (7,841 posts)

23. Cheer up, Romney fans. You still have Arkansas!

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:56 PM

ncav53 (168 posts)

26. Ohio, Nevada/Iowa, and Wisconsin and it's over for Romney

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:57 PM

Inuca (8,916 posts)

29. And "TIME poll" is now trending

on tweeter (of course

)

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:06 PM

amborin (11,717 posts)

34. K&R

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:14 PM

sulphurdunn (3,475 posts)

35. Exit polls had Kerry

leading bush by 3 to 5 points all through election day in 2004, yet he managed the near statistically impossible task of loosing both the popular vote and the electoral college after the machines did their black box magic.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:40 PM

johnnyrocket (1,325 posts)

38. It looks more and more like Ohio is IT. Sucks that this gets so close.

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Response to BraKez2 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:52 PM

CaliGal (26 posts)

39. Wake me up after Obama wins....

Okay, I can't take the anxiety anymore!!! I already voted, so just wake me up after Obama wins, please.....

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