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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:34 PM

Reuters-Ipsos Oct 24 Romney leads by 1

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/uk-usa-campaign-poll-idUKBRE89N1EQ20121024

Damn it! Amazing and odd, considering yesterday they were giving FL and VA to Obama.

24 replies, 2254 views

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
Reply Reuters-Ipsos Oct 24 Romney leads by 1 (Original post)
kansasobama Oct 2012 OP
JRLeft Oct 2012 #1
Mz Pip Oct 2012 #2
democrat_patriot Oct 2012 #3
scheming daemons Oct 2012 #4
Mz Pip Oct 2012 #24
gcomeau Oct 2012 #6
JRLeft Oct 2012 #12
JackN415 Oct 2012 #21
dhill926 Oct 2012 #7
JRLeft Oct 2012 #10
gcomeau Oct 2012 #15
dhill926 Oct 2012 #17
JRLeft Oct 2012 #8
fugop Oct 2012 #9
PADem54 Oct 2012 #11
Lithos Oct 2012 #14
Jennicut Oct 2012 #18
kimbutgar Oct 2012 #20
Warren DeMontague Oct 2012 #22
kansasobama Oct 2012 #5
kansasobama Oct 2012 #13
LiberalLovinLug Oct 2012 #16
Jennicut Oct 2012 #19
ProSense Oct 2012 #23

Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:35 PM

1. Who cares it is state by state. And Robbedme is losing.

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Response to JRLeft (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:39 PM

2. If Romney wins the popular vote

he wins the WH.

CA passed an initiative that will award all of its electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote. I think a number of other states have also.

Obama can't just count on an EC win; he has to win the popular vote as well.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:40 PM

3. Huh?


This I have not heard of...

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:40 PM

4. Um... no, CA did not pass that. It was contingent on *ALL* other states passing it as well


You are mistaken.

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:37 PM

24. That's good.

I have it wrong then.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:41 PM

6. No he does not.

The national popular vote bill only takes effect if enough states to control a majority of the electoral college pass their own bills.

They have not. So California's electoral votes still go to whoever wins California.

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Response to gcomeau (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:44 PM

12. Thank You, You are correct.

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Response to JRLeft (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:10 PM

21. You all are wrong...

 

The USSC will rule that neither popular votes, nor electoral votes will determine the presidency. It will be the votes of a number of DUers here with low post counts, who loved to post polls to express concerns about Obama falling behind, and Romney surging ahead that determines the presidency... of a special Nov 7 asylum for some despair souls.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:42 PM

7. Um hmm.....

I live in Cali. First I've heard of this. Sources?

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Response to dhill926 (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:44 PM

10. California

California

SACRAMENTO, August 8, 2011 California Governor Jerry Brown has signed the National Popular Vote bill, making California the 9th jurisdiction to enact the bill. On January 13, 2012, the Department of Justice cleared the National Popular Vote bill under the Voting Rights Act. Letter

Sacramento Bee article by David Sider
Santa Cruz Sentinel editorial
Natonal Journal article by Matt Loeb
San Jose Mercury News editorial

On July 14, 2011, the California Senate passed the National Popular Vote bill, thereby sending it to Governor Jerry Brown.

Los Angeles Times July 17, 2011 editorial
South San Francisco Patch
San Diego Union-Tribune article
Sacramento Bee
Letter from California Labor Federation AFL-CIO (Art Pulaski) urging Governor Brown to sign bill
http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/pages/states.php?s=CA

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Response to JRLeft (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:46 PM

15. And that bill is not active.

It doesn't take effect unless a number of states controlling a majority of the electoral college also pass their own bills.

It basically says "hey other states, if enough of you sign up for this thing THEN we'll all give our electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote and the winner of the popular vote will win every time".

Until that happens however, which it has not, the process is unchanged.

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Response to gcomeau (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:49 PM

17. Thank you....

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:42 PM

8. So basically we have decided to fuck ourselves. If the South comes out in droves.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:43 PM

9. Nope. But count on righties to start pushing this crap

They know the EC is sliding away and will start pretending it shouldn't matter. But it dies. So suck it up!

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:44 PM

11. It has not gone into effect

This is part of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, was passed into law in California in August 2011, but only goes into effect if the Compact is enacted in states totalling 270 electoral votes or more: http://knowledgecenter.csg.org/kc/content/california-pledges-its-55-electoral-votes-winner-national-popular-vote-part-interstate-compa.

According to National Popular Vote, the organization pushing the Compact, it has been enacted in states totaling 132 electoral votes: http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/.

So it isn't going to happen in 2012, at least.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:46 PM

14. Not enough states have signed on to that

So it does not apply for this year in any event.

It only takes effect nce the magic number (states representing over half of the electoral votes) is reached. However, seeing as it sideswipes the 12th amendment, it will be challenged.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:54 PM

18. As others have said, that is totally incorrect.

The National Popular Vote Initiative would go into effect only when states with a combined total of 270 electoral votes adopt the proposal
Also, Reuters put the lead as statistically insignificat because it is within the margin of error. Obama had a similar lead yesterday. It is essentially a tie because polls are not 100% accurate all the time. If you look at the average nationally, without Rasmussen it would be close to a tie. With Rasmussen, it is less then .09%. Essentially, a tie.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:02 PM

20. Rmoney will not win the popular vote

There are more people on both coasts that outnumber the voters in the middle states and south.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:15 PM

22. No.

You are incorrect.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:41 PM

5. That is not actually true

I think states could do that if other states do the same (or something like that). Please correct me.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:45 PM

13. The way south is

Hello:

The way South is, I wonder if these states should not pass these bills. It is looking more and more like Democrats will always have this issue. Red States always go BIG for Repubs. Dem states go ok for Dems and midwest is always a squeaker.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:47 PM

16. I cannot believe these polls

Obama led Romney by as much as 14 points a few months ago. Since then Romney has gone from one gaffe to another and so has his little buddy Paul. Obama also has improved dramatically from the first debate to the last.

It just doesn't make any sense. Wolf Blitzer admitted on air that they have 8% more Republicans in their polling group for CNN polls. Somehow I don't think they are alone in that. Its all an attempt to make it a horse race. The MSM will, on Nov. 5, lean back with their hands behind their heads, and declare their work as a success if the polls can close at 50/50.

Then, once the numbers look like the election is a toss-up, the voting machines and their Republican I.T. hackers get to work.

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Response to LiberalLovinLug (Reply #16)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:56 PM

19. This race has been close for the last month.

2000 and 2004 were very close. 2008 was a repudiation on how awful Bush was combined with increased Dem enthusiasm for Obama. 2012 fits 2000 and 2004 so I am not really that surprised.
Wolf Blitzer was referring to the debate snap polls, which CNN was terrible on.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:33 PM

23. No change: Obama up 4 points among registered voters

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