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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:14 PM

NC Day 6 and the President's lead is estimated to be about 95,000

The turn out is up.

The total number of voters is up.

But we are behind 4 years ago when at the same time we were up 115,000.

The most important reason to be positive about NC is that it appears the President is getting a good turnout including lots of new voters while it appears that Romney is simplly getting the same voters to vote earlier.

Very interested in the next 4 days.

But I think that the biggest news is that there is very little difference from 2008. Of course if that holds true across the country then Romney is cooked.

Read the whole story by MattTX at DailyKos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149363/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-6-135K-Minority-Dem-Non-08-Early-Voters-Have-Voted-Vs-78K-White-GOPers

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Reply NC Day 6 and the President's lead is estimated to be about 95,000 (Original post)
grantcart Oct 2012 OP
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #1
grantcart Oct 2012 #9
faithfulcitizen Oct 2012 #10
kansasobama Oct 2012 #2
Renew Deal Oct 2012 #3
ItsTheMediaStupid Oct 2012 #4
Lex Oct 2012 #5
unc70 Oct 2012 #15
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #6
Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #7
DURHAM D Oct 2012 #8
mnhtnbb Oct 2012 #11
Lex Oct 2012 #12
mnhtnbb Oct 2012 #13
Lex Oct 2012 #17
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #14
unc70 Oct 2012 #19
musical_soul Oct 2012 #16
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #18
mnhtnbb Oct 2012 #20

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:16 PM

1. 20,000 is a big difference

When you won the state by 14,000

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:02 PM

9. We will see. There is the issue with long lines just how long people will stand before they decide


to come another day.

It will be interesting to see which side slows down first.

But there is this. 20,000 is a lot in a state that Obama won by 14,000, but on the other hand a 6,000 increase by Romney is a very low number in a state he hast to switch from blue to red.

If that's all he can do in NC then, except for Indiana it doesn't appear that there is any lessening of enthusiasm for the President and the only way Romney can win is if we stay home.

Give it a couple more days and we will see which side blinks first in NC.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:24 PM

10. EXACTLY!

..."but on the other hand a 6,000 increase by Romney is a very low number in a state he hast to switch from blue to red."

And perhaps the new voters are even closing that gap!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:19 PM

2. Repubs may still come back but I will take an upset

Keep it going

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:22 PM

3. The difference and the margin is lower

Is there a reason to be positive about that?

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:31 PM

4. The Narrative at DailyKos explains why this is positive - excerpt below

"However, it appears that he is a bit below his 2008 margin at the same time 4 years ago vs. McCain. The reason why this is the case it that White Republicans are voting early at a higher rate than in 2008."

Like the OP stated, Romney is getting the same voters as 2008, they are just voting early. Obama is still getting newly registered voters who vote early.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:36 PM

5. Romney's not getting NEW republican voters. Just early ones.

Obama's getting new ones.

As someone else said, it's the difference between finding $5 on the ground versus moving $5 you already have from one pocket to another.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:27 PM

15. Repubs also pushing early voting

Republicans have improved their early voting GOTV from 2008, but the Dems have improved theirs even more. Huge advantage in new voter registrations by Dems plus among Dem voters registered as Unaffiliated (increasingly common among younger voters). Those registered as U are hard for me or simple polling to sort out from others registered U (Repub leaning, social liberal "libertarians", etc). The GOTV has spent a lot of time and effort gathering data and creating individual profiles of potential voters, registered or not.

Registration totals are also a bit misleading. NC has been a leader in implementing statewide voter databases, though the Board of Elections for each of 100 counties has its own local system. While the central registry was in place by 2008, since then there has been a lot automated and manual efforts to cleanup up the rolls in various reasonable ways. For example, if you had moved to a different county and registered and voted there, in the past you might have remained on the previous county's rolls for months or even years before being purged. Nothing illegal unless you voted both places, just an problem with disjoint, mostly manual systems.

Since 2008, more and more types of computerized databases are used to screen and validate new registrations, to update and transfer registrations between counties, and to remove those invalidated by death or by moving out of NC. I haven't seen the numbers involved to confirm, but understand more Dems were purged in this cleanup because of our demographics, moving more often, etc. Young people, minorities, singles, renters, low income, etc. These efforts didn't really change the number of voters, just the overstated count of registrations.

NC same day registration during early voting is increasing thecDem registration advantage a thousand or two each day if early voting.

Turnout in NC is higher for Dems so far for every subgroup. If these trends continue during the remainder of early voting, we can win. I hope the improving polls will keep enthusiasm high.

Encouraged, but it won't be easy and little room for error.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:38 PM

6. Something else to keep in mind.

In NC in 2008 thousands of voters did not actually mark the Presidential section of the ballot. I have been told the number of voters that voted straight Dem party but did not cast a vote for President was over 74,000. This time the poll workers are going to great lengths to explain the necessity of voting specifically for President and then you can proceed to vote straight party for down ticket offices.

Or as we used to say in Oklahoma - first vote for the top of the ticket and then Stamp the Rooster.



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Response to DURHAM D (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:45 PM

7. Holy shit!

What did Obama win by in '08?

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Response to Sugarcoated (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:53 PM

8. 14,000

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:30 PM

11. The problem with this entire analysis is that ACTUAL VOTES are not being tallied for Obama or Romney

The NC Board of Elections does not tally these votes UNTIL the election is over.

The numbers that are being reported are for Democratic or Republican ballots being cast; the total
for unaffiliated voters is not being counted, either. We have a huge population of unaffiliated voters.

Nobody knows until the votes are counted on election night whether 100% Dem ballots were cast
for Obama or 100% Republican ballots were cast for Romney or how the percentages break out
for unaffiliated voters. How many Dems will vote for Romney? How many Republicans will vote
for Obama? WE DON'T KNOW!

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

What we DO KNOW is that the NUMBERS of registered Dems EXCEEDS the NUMBERS of registered
Republicans by over 800,000 and IS RISING DAILY due to one stop registration and voting.

See my thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251171317



GOTV!!!!

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Response to mnhtnbb (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:38 PM

12. Sure, but extrapolating from 2008's actual numbers

does shed some light on what may be happening in 2012.

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Response to Lex (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:49 PM

13. It's still just speculation. The focus needs to be GOTV!

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Response to mnhtnbb (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:44 PM

17. I think it is

focused on GOTV for sure.



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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:53 PM

14. Too much assuming with these numbers...

1) We assume Obama is getting all the Democratic vote and Romney getting all the Republican ... without factoring in independent voters. In '08, Democrats made up 42% of the voting electorate and Republicans 31% and 27% independent. That 11 point swing is pretty huge and yet ... Obama only won the state by 14,000 votes. Obama won 90% of the Democratic vote in '08, but McCain won 95% of the Republican vote in '08. He also did far better than Obama among independent voters (60% to 39% for Obama), which is why the race was so tight. Now, no one knows how many independent voters have voted. But if they go 60-39 to Romney, as they did McCain four years ago, Obama's narrower margin could lead to an overall Romney victory.

2) We're still assuming Romney voters are just voting earlier than McCain voters and Obama's, a lot of 'em, are newer voters. That's great, but I see nothing definitive here and whether that's enough to close the smaller difference from four years ago.

If I'm the Romney campaign, I'm looking at these numbers and thinking, "close race ... with us in the lead."

Which is what I think the Obama campaign is thinking. There is a reason they're not holding rallies in North Carolina. Maybe that changes, but it seems the campaign is focusing on Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire. Smart because those states are probably more winnable.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:53 PM

19. You and I have to assume, Obama GOTV knows

I am quite certain that the Dem / Obama GOTV knows with great accuracy the individual eligible voters in NC. Building on their extensive collection of databases from 2008, they have a profile on nearly every resident of voting age in NC.

From the State they get voter rolls, voting histories (now includes previous counties) including primaries, motor vehicle registrations, public records (liens, judgments, criminal, traffic, real estate, marriage, divorce, gun permits, ...), some level of background information from proprietary sources such as those used for direct marketing (magazine subscriptions, etc), FEC reports, donations and other direct contact with the campaign, possibly tracking info from just visiting their web sites, online and social media participation, and finally door to door canvassing by volunteers.

Someone like me, a reliable Dem in every election for 40 years gets a little attention, someone with little or no voting history gets a lot. They track who has voted, who isn't registered and needs same day registration, who needs a ride, who a mentor, etc. Just as important, they know who would likely vote for Romney.

And in each case, from the profile data have a good idea which message, issue, type of contact, online and TV ad content, and ad placement would be most effective.

The Obama GOTV operation must become the Democratic Party GOTV for every future general election in NC and in every other state. We missed the mark in 2010, not as focused, aggressive, involved, organized, well funded, or politically savy -- and we have paid dearly. I still think our fatal mistake in 2010 was in delaying and not putting critical issues to a vote in Congress before the election. Special interests and Republicans won; progressives, Democrats, and most Americans lost. That decision was probably too much too overcome through GOTV given the frustrations of many activists and DUers. Lets win this one, then start work on 2014.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:39 PM

16. I just want to get the state back.

I want Obama to win, but if we can get out Democratic majority back, I'll be happy.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:55 PM

18. Thanks for the chart, grantcart. We need our "already registered" to get to the polls.

Romney is way up from McCain in '08.

I understand taht others at the Daily Kos have broken down the numbers and that we are way up with "newly registered", but I worry where are the "already registered" and why aren't they showing up?

I worry, naturally, that they may have been purged from the voter rolls.

If we had our "already registered" voters voting on top of the high number of "newly registered" voters, then our margin would be overwhelming at this point.

Just my observations...with my natural inclination to worry because they cheat and don't always get caught.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #18)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:55 PM

20. We're only 5 days in to early voting...

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