Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:51 PM
WI_DEM (32,531 posts)
Ohio (Survey USA) Obama 47% Romney 44% (26% already voted favor Obama 58-39
(but they show the Senate Race tight):
In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls -- ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it's Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today. An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Brown had led by 5, now leads by 1. The week-on-week movement comes from: * Independents, where Mandel last week led by 3 points and today leads by 13 points, a 10-point right turn. * Union households, where last week Brown was up 14 points and today he is up 5 points, a 9-point right turn. * Middle-income voters, where Brown had led by 16 points, and today is tied, a 16-point right turn. * Men, where last week Mandel was at 42% and today he is at 47%. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate and before the 3rd Presidential debate. The party composition of SurveyUSA's 10/15/12 poll was 32% Republican, 39% Democrat. The party composition of today's 10/22/12 poll is 32% Republican, 39% Democrat. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86d85b21-8b9a-4661-99ab-3b88b2335cf2
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11 replies, 1111 views
| Author | Time | Post | |
| WI_DEM | Oct 2012 | OP | |
| woolldog | Oct 2012 | #1 | |
| WI_DEM | Oct 2012 | #3 | |
| woolldog | Oct 2012 | #6 | |
| Sugarcoated | Oct 2012 | #4 | |
| woolldog | Oct 2012 | #7 | |
| Zen Democrat | Oct 2012 | #2 | |
| bigdarryl | Oct 2012 | #5 | |
| MSMITH33156 | Oct 2012 | #9 | |
| speedoo | Oct 2012 | #8 | |
| WI_DEM | Oct 2012 | #10 | |
| ncav53 | Oct 2012 | #11 |
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:54 PM
woolldog (6,846 posts)
1. is this new?
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or the same one that was released yesterday?
Not criticizing you but its hard to keep these polls straight. This is a good one as SUSA is pretty accurate pollster. |
Response to woolldog (Reply #1)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:01 PM
WI_DEM (32,531 posts)
3. It's new to me--and political wire put it on today, so I don't know.
Response to woolldog (Reply #1)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:02 PM
Sugarcoated (4,712 posts)
4. This is today's poll
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Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:03 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1) It was added to Huffpost page of polls about an hour ago.
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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:00 PM
Zen Democrat (4,648 posts)
2. I know elections aren't called until the polls close on election day, BUT ..
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at some point in early voting looking at the percentage of votes counted, where, and the percentage lead of one candidate over another can indicate the obvious.
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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:08 PM
bigdarryl (9,176 posts)
5. Ok DU'ERS help me out here I'm not good at math so can anyone figure these numbers out
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This poll says 26% of voters have voted early and Obama leads in early voting by 19 points so where does that leave idiot boy Romney as far as catching up on election day
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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:20 PM
MSMITH33156 (329 posts)
9. Well, we can't extrapolate off these numbers with any sort of mathematically certainty
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because there are unaccounted for people in the 26% of voters that have already voted and it is a sample, not hard numbers. But assuming Obama wins the EV 58-39, and that makes up 26% of the electorate, Mitt would have to win the remaining 74% of the vote about 53.5% to 46.5%.
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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:20 PM
speedoo (11,229 posts)
8. There has been no volatility in the Ohio race in the last month or so.
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And the early voting IMO is serving to reduce any volatility that might pop up.
Looking very good, folks! |
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:51 PM
ncav53 (168 posts)
11. Obama's firewall should be Ohio, Wis, Michigan and Iowa or Nevada
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With those 4 states he's won the election.
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