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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:51 PM

Ohio (Survey USA) Obama 47% Romney 44% (26% already voted favor Obama 58-39

(but they show the Senate Race tight):

In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls -- ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it's Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.

An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Brown had led by 5, now leads by 1. The week-on-week movement comes from:

* Independents, where Mandel last week led by 3 points and today leads by 13 points, a 10-point right turn.
* Union households, where last week Brown was up 14 points and today he is up 5 points, a 9-point right turn.
* Middle-income voters, where Brown had led by 16 points, and today is tied, a 16-point right turn.
* Men, where last week Mandel was at 42% and today he is at 47%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate and before the 3rd Presidential debate. The party composition of SurveyUSA's 10/15/12 poll was 32% Republican, 39% Democrat. The party composition of today's 10/22/12 poll is 32% Republican, 39% Democrat.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86d85b21-8b9a-4661-99ab-3b88b2335cf2

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Reply Ohio (Survey USA) Obama 47% Romney 44% (26% already voted favor Obama 58-39 (Original post)
WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP
woolldog Oct 2012 #1
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #3
woolldog Oct 2012 #6
Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #4
woolldog Oct 2012 #7
Zen Democrat Oct 2012 #2
bigdarryl Oct 2012 #5
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #9
speedoo Oct 2012 #8
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #10
ncav53 Oct 2012 #11

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:54 PM

1. is this new?

or the same one that was released yesterday?

Not criticizing you but its hard to keep these polls straight. This is a good one as SUSA is pretty accurate pollster.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:01 PM

3. It's new to me--and political wire put it on today, so I don't know.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:12 PM

6. kk, ty nt

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Response to woolldog (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:02 PM

4. This is today's poll

It was added to Huffpost page of polls about an hour ago.

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Response to Sugarcoated (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:12 PM

7. ty!

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:00 PM

2. I know elections aren't called until the polls close on election day, BUT ..

at some point in early voting looking at the percentage of votes counted, where, and the percentage lead of one candidate over another can indicate the obvious.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:08 PM

5. Ok DU'ERS help me out here I'm not good at math so can anyone figure these numbers out

This poll says 26% of voters have voted early and Obama leads in early voting by 19 points so where does that leave idiot boy Romney as far as catching up on election day

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:20 PM

9. Well, we can't extrapolate off these numbers with any sort of mathematically certainty

because there are unaccounted for people in the 26% of voters that have already voted and it is a sample, not hard numbers. But assuming Obama wins the EV 58-39, and that makes up 26% of the electorate, Mitt would have to win the remaining 74% of the vote about 53.5% to 46.5%.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:20 PM

8. There has been no volatility in the Ohio race in the last month or so.

And the early voting IMO is serving to reduce any volatility that might pop up.

Looking very good, folks!

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Response to speedoo (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:47 PM

10. I agree.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:51 PM

11. Obama's firewall should be Ohio, Wis, Michigan and Iowa or Nevada

With those 4 states he's won the election.

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