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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:45 PM

Halperin: Obama camp very confident of victory

Say what you want about Halperin, but this is some good reporting that is highly encouraging.


In May and then again two weeks ago, I met in the Obama Chicago campaign headquarters with senior officials from the Presidentís re-election for wide-ranging discussions of the state of the race. On both occasions, I was struck by the expression of near certainty that their candidate would be re-elected. On Tuesday, I was back meeting with many of the same top advisers and found a virtually identical level of definitive sureness about the outcome. As always, the Chicago group acknowledges the race will be close, but claim the presidentís October stumbles and skids have not changed their fundamental, positive view.
On the early vote:

Said one senior official: ďBut the most important thing about early vote is one thing and one thing only: are you getting your sporadic voters to vote? Because if itís just chasing people who are going to vote anyway than itís justÖa zero sum game. But all the data I see says we are getting our sporadics to vote at a higher rate than they are, which, especially for any Democratic candidate, is a bigger challenge because we have lower propensity voters. Thatís exactly what we are doing and we feel great about that.Ē
On the battlegrounds:

Chicago remains sufficiently funded and emboldened by its own polling to compete for the final two weeks in all nine of the battlegrounds: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia in the South; New Hampshire in the North; Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and Nevada and Colorado in the West. As they have in the past, Obama campaign officials say they expect to win a high percentage of those states and conceivably could sweep all nine.
When pressed, the Obama officials with whom I met said that five of the nine stand out: Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. In that quintet, Democrats believe the combination of their current leads in polling, early voting (where applicable), and ground game makes their chances of winning even greater there than in the other four. And given the Electoral College math, unless Romney picks off one or more of those five states, Obama would win a minimum of 281 electoral votes and re-election.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149440/-Halperin-Obama-camp-very-confident-of-victory

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Reply Halperin: Obama camp very confident of victory (Original post)
WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #1
BigDemVoter Oct 2012 #8
RomneyLies Oct 2012 #2
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #7
deepen915 Oct 2012 #3
Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #4
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #5
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #6
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #9
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #10

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:57 PM

1. THIS is the news of the day

People need to stop staring at polls and READ THE CAMPAIGN ARTICLES. The O campaign repeatedly tell you what the state of the race is and then a week later lo and behold the polls back them up. Just like after the first debate they are TELLING YOU what the plan is and people STILL run around like they don't know how things stand.

They have the firewall. The race IS in the bag. They are saying it now. They are openly calling Romney and the media's bluff. Now we just need to run up the score. \

And I don't want to hear anything about complacency. They planned for that, too. So let's crush those motherf*ckin repubs into the ground!!!!

Yeah baby!!!!

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:13 PM

8. Thanks for the info. . . .

I had a really fearful day Monday, but I'm beginning to get my groove back, as you illustrated the plan. I know none of us will rest on our laurels yet, but victory is coming, and I cannot wait to see the expression on Asshole Romney's ugly mug when he realizes he's spent huge sums of $$ for N-O-T-H-I-N-G!!!

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:02 PM

2. Remember the 2008 primaries?

 

The math was the math and there was no way to defeat the math, no matter what anybody wanted to believe. Hillary fought to the end, but the end game was predetermined by the mathematics.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:13 PM

7. There is one big difference between this and 2008 vs Hillary

Then, it was all about the votes that had already been cast. This is more about votes that seem to be locked in, and in some cases already cast.

I would trust Team Obama's math over Romney's--they are cutting edge at this stuff.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:08 PM

3. this is good news..

But my only worry is these early votes will be safe right? I don't want some late night Nov. 6 surprise where votes were not counted or there was some shady Florida 2000 stuff.. WE HAVE TO WIN THIS ELECTION!

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Response to deepen915 (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:09 PM

4. The only one's worried are Mitt the Con Man and his supporters

Just sayin'

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Response to deepen915 (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:11 PM

5. ARGH Why would the campaign

say this if it weren't safe. Seriously, do you really think the first African American President of the United States is not prepared for possible election fraud? REALLY? They explain their process in the article.

God the handwringing drives me nuts.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:12 PM

6. There are some interesting tidbits

that might pertain to the dichotomy in RVs versus LVs in the polling models. It seems that many of these pollsters are skewing more towards the Romney voter turnout assumptions to determine their likely voter models.

But, what O is doing is getting people that aren't as likely to vote, and getting their asses to the poll.

But all the data I see says we are getting our sporadics to vote at a higher rate than they are, which, especially for any Democratic candidate, is a bigger challenge because we have lower propensity voters. Thatís exactly what we are doing and we feel great about that.


That is the most important thing. Every Romney path to victory depends on people who would vote for Obama not showing up. But Obama's campaign is identifying those same people and making sure they vote.

When they talk about the data looking good, that's specifically what they are talking about. They know, for example, that they have sporadic voters in Ohio they need to get to the polls. So, they identified them, and got them to go vote early. Money in the bank. Now, when a pollster calls that same person, they would fail the likely voter screen (prior to voting). As much as we focus on the raw numbers in early voting this year versus 2008, the real key is who those people are and whether they were going to vote anyway. OFA has identified those people that are not sure to vote, and they see in the early voting data, that those people are in fact voting at the rate they need to win, so that's why they are confident. It is the election, and they are already winning it.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:18 PM

9. We have a LV, RV catagory for pollsters,

Do we have anything like an already voted (AV) catagory, or is that rolled into the LVs. The research I have done seems all over the map.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:23 PM

10. There is no doubt

from the EV standpoint, the President is in the cat bird's seat.

Keeping in mind the republicans will be absolutely DICKS regardless, it would be nice if ...

1) He has a clear popular vote win, also.
2) He gets close to or over 300 EVs.
4) The dems get some pickups in the Senate, especially in light of the projections from the day after the 2010 elecion that they would lose the Senate.
5) The put a big dent into the R House majority. Getting the House is a BIG reach, but they can get their margin down to less than 20 seats and make it harder for them to wreak havoc.

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