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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:29 PM

 

Has there ever been a time when an Incumbent presdent had Greater than 50%

Job Approval rating and Lost re-election?

9 replies, 872 views

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Reply Has there ever been a time when an Incumbent presdent had Greater than 50% (Original post)
MassedPole Oct 2012 OP
BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #1
MassedPole Oct 2012 #3
BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #4
RedSpartan Oct 2012 #6
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #5
Jennicut Oct 2012 #7
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #9
SheilaT Oct 2012 #2
nsd Oct 2012 #8

Response to MassedPole (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:36 PM

1. I don't believe so...

I don't believe so. The only one who may have come close was Ford in 1976, although I believe his approval ratings were in the upper-40's at the time of the election, although his approval rating rose to 53% by the time he left office in Jan. 1977.

The other three incumbents who lost re-election bids, Hoover (1928), Carter (1980), and Bush I (1992), all had high negative approval ratings on their respective election days.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:38 PM

3. If thats the case we have nothing to worry about.

 

If Obama has +50 Approval why would he not get re elected.

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Response to MassedPole (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:41 PM

4. The same reason Ann Richards lost re-election despite having a 56% approval rating

...because people look for an excuse to vote conservative.

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Response to MassedPole (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:48 PM

6. Because he is black.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:42 PM

5. And obviously

in the case of Ford, there were underpinnings there since he wasn't elected in the first place, and he had Nixon baggage.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:48 PM

7. HW Bush was at 37% on the evening of the election in 1992 per wikipedia.

Ford's was around 43% or lower in Oct/Nov of '76. Carter's were below 40% for much of '80.

I think Obama is in a much stronger position with approval from 47% to above 50%. This is around what W. Bush was in 2004.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:47 PM

9. Exactly

Carter, Ford, and Papa Bush had much lower job approval ratings in late October than Obama. Obama is doing quite well in job approval with 13 days left.

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Response to MassedPole (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:38 PM

2. It would be theoretically possible, I suppose, but I'm pretty sure it's never happened.

Maybe, if more than half of the people approve of the President, but many of them think even more highly of the challenger, is about the only way I can picture that happening.

Although it's hard to imagine that scenario, thinking well of both. Certainly not in today's bitterly divided political landscape.

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Response to MassedPole (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:49 PM

8. You can explore the numbers at this UCONN site.

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_search.cfm#.UIgpDFGdl60

Short story: Bush Sr. (1992) was at 35% approval in late October. Carter (1980) was also at 35%. Ford (1976) was at 45% in June (no polling on approval available later).

So, it would be very strange for Obama to lose when his approval is north of 50%.

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