Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:29 PM
MassedPole (242 posts)
Has there ever been a time when an Incumbent presdent had Greater than 50%
Job Approval rating and Lost re-election?
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9 replies, 739 views
| Author | Time | Post | |
| MassedPole | Oct 2012 | OP | |
| BlueDemKev | Oct 2012 | #1 | |
| MassedPole | Oct 2012 | #3 | |
| BlueDemKev | Oct 2012 | #4 | |
| RedSpartan | Oct 2012 | #6 | |
| MSMITH33156 | Oct 2012 | #5 | |
| Jennicut | Oct 2012 | #7 | |
| VirginiaTarheel | Oct 2012 | #9 | |
| SheilaT | Oct 2012 | #2 | |
| nsd | Oct 2012 | #8 |
Response to MassedPole (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:36 PM
BlueDemKev (2,590 posts)
1. I don't believe so...
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I don't believe so. The only one who may have come close was Ford in 1976, although I believe his approval ratings were in the upper-40's at the time of the election, although his approval rating rose to 53% by the time he left office in Jan. 1977.
The other three incumbents who lost re-election bids, Hoover (1928), Carter (1980), and Bush I (1992), all had high negative approval ratings on their respective election days. |
Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:38 PM
MassedPole (242 posts)
3. If thats the case we have nothing to worry about.
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If Obama has +50 Approval why would he not get re elected.
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Response to MassedPole (Reply #3)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:41 PM
BlueDemKev (2,590 posts)
4. The same reason Ann Richards lost re-election despite having a 56% approval rating
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...because people look for an excuse to vote conservative.
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Response to MassedPole (Reply #3)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:48 PM
RedSpartan (1,133 posts)
6. Because he is black.
Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:42 PM
MSMITH33156 (329 posts)
5. And obviously
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in the case of Ford, there were underpinnings there since he wasn't elected in the first place, and he had Nixon baggage.
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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:48 PM
Jennicut (25,347 posts)
7. HW Bush was at 37% on the evening of the election in 1992 per wikipedia.
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Ford's was around 43% or lower in Oct/Nov of '76. Carter's were below 40% for much of '80.
I think Obama is in a much stronger position with approval from 47% to above 50%. This is around what W. Bush was in 2004. |
Response to Jennicut (Reply #7)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:47 PM
VirginiaTarheel (798 posts)
9. Exactly
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Carter, Ford, and Papa Bush had much lower job approval ratings in late October than Obama. Obama is doing quite well in job approval with 13 days left.
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Response to MassedPole (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:38 PM
SheilaT (12,464 posts)
2. It would be theoretically possible, I suppose, but I'm pretty sure it's never happened.
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Maybe, if more than half of the people approve of the President, but many of them think even more highly of the challenger, is about the only way I can picture that happening.
Although it's hard to imagine that scenario, thinking well of both. Certainly not in today's bitterly divided political landscape. |
Response to MassedPole (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:49 PM
nsd (1,736 posts)
8. You can explore the numbers at this UCONN site.
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http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_search.cfm#.UIgpDFGdl60
Short story: Bush Sr. (1992) was at 35% approval in late October. Carter (1980) was also at 35%. Ford (1976) was at 45% in June (no polling on approval available later). So, it would be very strange for Obama to lose when his approval is north of 50%. |

