Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:02 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

Gallup LV -Romney 50% Obama 47% /RV -Obama 48% -Romney 47%/Approve 53% -Disapprove 42%

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:03 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logo

This is getting curioser and curioser.

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38 replies	Author	Time	Post
Gallup LV -Romney 50% Obama 47% /RV -Obama 48% -Romney 47%/Approve 53% -Disapprove 42% (Original post)	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	OP
Wow...debate bump or bad day dropping off?	My Pet Goat	Oct 2012	#1
Bad days dropping off. The 15th and 16th were terrible days for Obama. nt	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#4
yep, very well could be, but a 3-day approval number at 53 signals.....	My Pet Goat	Oct 2012	#10
Approval is all adults, including those not registered to vote.	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#14
Because The President Is President Of 100% Of The American People, Even The Ones Who Don't Vote./nt	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#21
All three numbers tend to track with each other	DrToast	Oct 2012	#23
Relying On This Poll Only	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#13
you were right.	woolldog	Oct 2012	#25
There Is Much To Like , Given The Pollster	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#9
Gallup LV screen is crap. What happened last week is that Romney had an epic	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#11
"behind?" In a national poll by pollsters that game the LIkely Voter model?	progressivebydesign	Oct 2012	#17
The Gallup poll appears to have a flawed LV model. But we're gaining	mzmolly	Oct 2012	#18
Nate Silver uses their RV figure, not their LV figure. Look for Obama to rise at 538 today. nt	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#19
Seems	mzmolly	Oct 2012	#32
I Care Because The Gallup Poll Feeds A False Narrative	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#28
Gallup gets more media hits than all other polls combined. nt	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#33
Why not both?	Mr.Turnip	Oct 2012	#37
IMPRESSIVE!	boingboinh	Oct 2012	#2
Two days ago, I said Obama would make major progress in Gallup after the debate.	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#3
"Someone is gettin' pregnant tonight!"	boingboinh	Oct 2012	#7
Good but still off	kansasobama	Oct 2012	#5
While it is good to see Obama make gains in that poll	Jennicut	Oct 2012	#6
The 15th and 16th were terrible polling days for Obama. His RV and LV numbers nose-dived on those	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#8
Awesome numbers	NewsCenter28	Oct 2012	#16
gallup is meaningless	djnicadress	Oct 2012	#38
And we care about a National poll, WHY exactly?	progressivebydesign	Oct 2012	#12
What was that about Romney momentum?	RedSpartan	Oct 2012	#15
New to DU	prussogirl	Oct 2012	#20
Cherrypicking is a fool's game for partisans. Stick to the aggregators like 538 or Electoral-vote	dmallind	Oct 2012	#31
Thank you	prussogirl	Oct 2012	#36
This is good news. Obama goes from 7 to 3 behind among LV--moving in right direction.	WI_DEM	Oct 2012	#22
@Obamamentum	imgbitepolitic	Oct 2012	#24
It appears that Obama's "condescension" has not hurt him then.	yellowcanine	Oct 2012	#26
Who the fuck are the 53% who approve, but won't vote for him?	ProudToBeBlueInRhody	Oct 2012	#27
53% includes those not registered to vote. nt	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#30
Great day of polling on Tuesday	Johnny2X2X	Oct 2012	#29
since it was 52-45 for Romney	NewJeffCT	Oct 2012	#34
Nice to see Romney's Gallup lead cut in half this week	TroyD	Oct 2012	#35

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:05 PM

My Pet Goat (353 posts)

1. Wow...debate bump or bad day dropping off?

O back into the lead on RV, Approval at 53 means better numbers tomorrow (probably).

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Response to My Pet Goat (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:06 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

4. Bad days dropping off. The 15th and 16th were terrible days for Obama. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:09 PM

My Pet Goat (353 posts)

10. yep, very well could be, but a 3-day approval number at 53 signals.....

the horse race number is heading up tomorrow (USUALLY).

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Response to My Pet Goat (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:13 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

14. Approval is all adults, including those not registered to vote.

I usually don't pay it any attention. Not sure why Gallup bothers with a poll that includes people who can't and certainly won't vote.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:34 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

21. Because The President Is President Of 100% Of The American People, Even The Ones Who Don't Vote./nt

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:54 PM

DrToast (3,968 posts)

23. All three numbers tend to track with each other

If Obama is gaining in approval rating, then he's likely gaining in the other two.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:13 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

13. Relying On This Poll Only

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:15 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

Imagine you are a fan of a basketball team that was up by ten points with five minutes left. There's now ninety seconds on the clock, the opposing team has the ball, and they are down by just two.

That's the story of the last week in this poll.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:59 PM

woolldog (6,846 posts)

25. you were right.

good call, sir.

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Response to My Pet Goat (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:08 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

9. There Is Much To Like , Given The Pollster

What I like

!) The 53%-42% approve/disapprove. Those are a winner's numbers.
2) The lv/rv gap has narrowed to 4
3) O leads among rvs.
4) O has a lot of momentum in that poll. He has moved up three points in four or five days.

What I don't like

!) We are still behind.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:11 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

11. Gallup LV screen is crap. What happened last week is that Romney had an epic

day or two in polling, which threw the entire tracker off. Now those days have dropped off, and we're back to Obama ahead in RVs, with LV screen producing Romney's entire lead.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:14 PM

progressivebydesign (19,363 posts)

17. "behind?" In a national poll by pollsters that game the LIkely Voter model?

I don't care. Do you? Or did we start electing President's based on the popular vote???

These totals INCLUDE places like Alabama and Mississippi, which have zero bearing on the race. Focusing on a poll like that is fairly useless, other than the approval numbers, which are interesting.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:16 PM

mzmolly (47,412 posts)

18. The Gallup poll appears to have a flawed LV model. But we're gaining

even in that figure, which is good IMHO.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #18)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:17 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

19. Nate Silver uses their RV figure, not their LV figure. Look for Obama to rise at 538 today. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #19)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:32 PM

mzmolly (47,412 posts)

32. Seems

that's appropriate.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:09 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

28. I Care Because The Gallup Poll Feeds A False Narrative

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #28)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:35 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

33. Gallup gets more media hits than all other polls combined. nt

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Response to My Pet Goat (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:46 PM

Mr.Turnip (624 posts)

37. Why not both?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:06 PM

boingboinh (290 posts)

2. IMPRESSIVE!

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:06 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

3. Two days ago, I said Obama would make major progress in Gallup after the debate.

Now Obama's ahead in their RV measure with Romney's entire LV lead based on Gallup's gonzo LV screen.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:08 PM

boingboinh (290 posts)

7. "Someone is gettin' pregnant tonight!"

Dude, you called it! I remember your other post!
Many here are genuflecting in your presence.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:07 PM

kansasobama (224 posts)

5. Good but still off

I am glad they are moving well. 53-42 is a little bit of an overkill, don't you think so...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:07 PM

Jennicut (25,411 posts)

6. While it is good to see Obama make gains in that poll

one has to wonder why he was ever behind 7 points to begin with?
If their LV model is so bad, it is essentially a tie. Which every other poll known to man is showing (except Ramussen of course).

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:08 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

8. The 15th and 16th were terrible polling days for Obama. His RV and LV numbers nose-dived on those

two days. Now he's back in front in RVs.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:14 PM

NewsCenter28 (59 posts)

16. Awesome numbers

Presidents with 53% approval ratings don't go down to defeat.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:17 PM

djnicadress (7 posts)

38. gallup is meaningless

gallup is crap who cares what they say

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:12 PM

progressivebydesign (19,363 posts)

12. And we care about a National poll, WHY exactly?

We don't elect on the popular vote. And Likely Voter is a bullshit model, based on Gallup (RW) interpretation of who they think will vote.

White, middle/upper class, woman, in her middle age, who leans conservative.

Very few of us are actually watching the Gallup polls.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:14 PM

RedSpartan (1,140 posts)

15. What was that about Romney momentum?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:17 PM

prussogirl (9 posts)

20. New to DU

I still do not know which polls to track, Isn't Gallop right leaning? If anyone can sugget which polls to follow thtat would really help me out.

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Response to prussogirl (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:17 PM

dmallind (10,437 posts)

31. Cherrypicking is a fool's game for partisans. Stick to the aggregators like 538 or Electoral-vote

Even RCP. Different companies from either different methodologies in screening etc or inherent bias will skew one way or the other. Samples vary and so do weightings for correction. Even a perfect poll has a margin of error and a confidence level.

Sure there are egregious pollers, but we should not throw out everything even they do. Much beter to look at the aggregate of polls on the state level. Electoral-vote.com does a very clear job that is easy to follow and fairly constructed. 538 at NY Times if you want more wonkery.

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Response to dmallind (Reply #31)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 05:18 PM

prussogirl (9 posts)

36. Thank you

The information you provided was very informative. Thanks I appreciate it!

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:40 PM

WI_DEM (32,531 posts)

22. This is good news. Obama goes from 7 to 3 behind among LV--moving in right direction.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:54 PM

imgbitepolitic (164 posts)

24. @Obamamentum

@Obamamentum

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:01 PM

yellowcanine (24,478 posts)

26. It appears that Obama's "condescension" has not hurt him then.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:03 PM

ProudToBeBlueInRhody (10,442 posts)

27. Who the fuck are the 53% who approve, but won't vote for him?

Non registered voters? Do they end the survey if you say you aren't registered?

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #27)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:11 PM

geek tragedy (26,858 posts)

30. 53% includes those not registered to vote. nt

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:11 PM

Johnny2X2X (737 posts)

29. Great day of polling on Tuesday

There is no way to interpret it other than that he saw a great day in polling after the debate. To move a 7 day average 2 points means great things. To move a 3 day rolling average 5 points on approval rating vs disapproval is even bigger.

We've all been worried about Gallup because it's been a respected poll for so long, love seeing it come back to reality.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:54 PM

NewJeffCT (36,070 posts)

34. since it was 52-45 for Romney

last week in Gallup, will the media now talk about the Obama surge?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:03 PM

TroyD (4,472 posts)

35. Nice to see Romney's Gallup lead cut in half this week

He's still ahead with Likely Voters, but Obama is ahead with Registered Voters.

And as others have commented, it's odd that a President has an Approval Rating of 53% (which usually means Re-election) and yet is not in the lead with Likely Voters.

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