It looks like Romney might take Arkansas since he is up 27

LOL

Sorry....couldn't resist.

Maybe there's a few of us you managed to not offend.

That we all fly the confederate flag? Remember that Daily Show segment during the convention when the so-called open minded people were actively stereotyping people while talking about how inclusive they are?

I hear Obama's within 20 points there. I mean those 3 electoral votes are so precious...

so I wouldn't laugh about a 20 point deficit, Heidi can't overcome that.

...NOT. The reason the southern states vote Republican can be summed up in 3 words: Lack of Education.

I just moved here from San Francisco where I did not know one single Republican. I work in a hospital here, and 90% of the RN's are REPUBLICAN! They're anti-union, anti-Obama-care, anti-everything. AND. . . . They are employed in a "right-to-work" (=right to be fired) state with NO guarantees on safe patient to nurse ratios or any other reasonable protections.

It's really shocking, as I'm STILL not accustomed to dealing with any nurse who would overlook what's good for her patients for whatever imaginary selfish reason she may have.

Unbelievable.

Oh, and did I say it's a shit hole here?

Not all of us are Duggers. I'm proud to be voting for President Obama in Arkansas.

I kinda think that's factored in. There might be a reason Obama hasn't campaigned in Myrtle Beach, Jackson or Fayetteville recently.

Of the 18 people who live there, I believe at least two are registered Democrats?

He should be ahead by double digits in those states

And anyone else with a D by their name on election day. The polling won't keep me home.

Except for a few states, is safe GOP.

It is very diffucult for the Democratic Party to win in those states -- except for a few.

As the name implies I live in Ky. Lexington is a progressive area thanks to the univerity here, as well as several top knotch liberal arts colleges in the immediate area. It is blue here until you get away from the city, same for Louisville.

They probably let all of the footballs vote too since they are made of pigskin.

...slowly. The GOP party is fading. Just look at Texas for example. I truly believe probably not this Election year but next it could have a very good chance of going Blue it is right on the line and other Red States will follow. North Carolina as well went Blue last EY (Election Year) and have no doubts it will turn Blue this November. Each EY the GOP looks more and more foolish and their fan base is dying off or else coming to their sense and turning Blue and they are losing huge amounts of credibility (if they even ever had any to begin with that is.) They have no 'rock star politicians' like we have. Only the same old rhetoric trickle down theory that has been dis-proven over and over. They are deeply a shamed of their political ilk from the past and have to hide them away in their deep dark closets for fear that people might see they are cut from the exact same cloth as they are. More minorities are becoming the majorities and the Repuglican party offers them nothing to their advantage and will not in the future. Repuglicans are always stuck in the past with their tired, same old ideas that get slapped down over and over. Times are changing and I do not honestly think or feel the GOP party can survive.

Arkansas might take a little time but they are a great State and when their time comes it will be with a vengeance and we will welcome them with open arms and lots of love.

You've made very good points that I needed to hear. I don't see this going beyond my generation. No one is putting up Romney signs in my Republican area which tells me something but still won't vote for Obama. Maybe they will stay home on election day. .

And welcome to DU!

In many of these states, Obama may have an even LOWER % of the white vote than he got in '08.

Check out the the swing between '04 and '08 (the colors are switched):

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2008&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0

and the trend:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2008&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Focus on the dark blue states. Those were the states McCain actually improved upon Bush. Yep. McCain actually did better than Bush in a few states. These are AR, LA, WV, OK, and TN. It's especially notable that AR is the sole dark blue state in the swing category. In '08, many probably attributed this to post primary bitterness, but I think the racial divide in much of Appalachia is as bad as it looked during the primaries (I remember some very blatant and nasty racism all the way back in the '08 primaries especially in states like WV). The deep south numbers among whites aren't much better, but of course there are many more blacks in LA, MS, and AL than the other Appalachian states, so the swing wasn't negative for Obama relative to Kerry's performance.

This is possibly also why we're seeing the numbers we are in Gallup's cross tabs. The margin in the south and border states is likely bringing his popular vote down considerably. It doesn't really matter though. Obama has a very realistic path to get to 270 without a single southern state this time (including NC, VA, or FL). Likewise, it is possible he could lose the popular vote...

Yet still remain president.

Don't worry, It'll be Blue for Clinton in 2016