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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:11 PM

Charlotte Little (133 posts)

Keep an eye out for the Gallup Poll today...

It will begin to tighten back within the margin of error with Obama improving, "momentum" for Romney abating.

No, I'm not a psychic. Frank Newport was interviewed on an AM talk radio today about his poll, etc. He clearly stated that the poll numbers are moving back some in Obama's direction (but not that Obama is ahead in his poll, so don't think that) and that Gallup DOES ABSOLUTELY include heavier samples from the south (duh). He did say there is a possibility of an R win popular vote & an O win in Electoral due to a strong showing in the south.

I'm sorry, I don't normally listen to talk radio on AM (I despise the R/W flapperjacks) but I was curious to see what was trending, so I flipped through stations on the way to work. I think it may have been on 790 or 890 (Los Angeles).

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22 replies	Author	Time	Post
Keep an eye out for the Gallup Poll today... (Original post)	Charlotte Little	Oct 2012	OP
I seriously couldn't care less about a gallop poll.	LisaL	Oct 2012	#1
I seriously wish people would learn how to spell "Gallup"	regnaD kciN	Oct 2012	#2
I Spell It Wrong Intentionally Gall(o)p./nt	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#6
270 is the only number I care about that and Dem President45 being elected in 2016	graham4anything	Oct 2012	#3
Did he explain why he takes heavier samples in the south?	pnwmom	Oct 2012	#4
Hope so	chadnky	Oct 2012	#5
That's ALL I hear about on FB...	txdemsftw	Oct 2012	#8
No explanation...	Charlotte Little	Oct 2012	#7
Charlotte: is it related to Charlotte's web by any mean?	JackN415	Oct 2012	#13
No it won't. Historically	Maximumnegro	Oct 2012	#9
I care...	Charlotte Little	Oct 2012	#10
If You Are Truly Invested In Obama Winning Please Stay.	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#14
Put up your feet	woolldog	Oct 2012	#15
showing color after 54 posts? n/t. Be back here on Nov 7, will you?	JackN415	Oct 2012	#16
^	woolldog	Oct 2012	#17
I agree that it's been testy around here. BUT.. the Gallup polls are worthless.	progressivebydesign	Oct 2012	#19
All of my posts are enthusiastic	Maximumnegro	Oct 2012	#22
Check out my post on public vs private polling	kennetha	Oct 2012	#11
Why do they sample more from the south - just to skew the results probably.	polichick	Oct 2012	#12
The south is the most populous region	cthulu2016	Oct 2012	#20
Sorry, Gallup polls are worthless. They oversample likely voters, and are right wingers. nt	progressivebydesign	Oct 2012	#18
She Was Spot On. TY./nt	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#21

Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:12 PM

LisaL (22,801 posts)

1. I seriously couldn't care less about a gallop poll.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:15 PM

regnaD kciN (17,427 posts)

2. I seriously wish people would learn how to spell "Gallup"

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:19 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

6. I Spell It Wrong Intentionally Gall(o)p./nt

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:17 PM

graham4anything (9,122 posts)

3. 270 is the only number I care about that and Dem President45 being elected in 2016

I don't care if President Obama will win by 1 vote or a zillion as long as we get 270.
and it's in the books. Don't care about popular vote, except to win congress
Matters little if we win the swing states by 1 vote and lose the deep red states by hundreds of thousands.

It's 270.

nothing else matters at all.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:17 PM

pnwmom (43,090 posts)

4. Did he explain why he takes heavier samples in the south?

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:18 PM

chadnky (18 posts)

5. Hope so

I don't believe the ridiculous margin in the poll, but republicans are using it to shape a narrative of Romney momentum.

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Response to chadnky (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:20 PM

txdemsftw (447 posts)

8. That's ALL I hear about on FB...

"Romney will win, just look at the Gallup polls!"

Gag me. They are too stupid to know any better I guess.

I just laugh.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:20 PM

Charlotte Little (133 posts)

7. No explanation...

...for why the heavier southern pool.

As for what I've posted - this is good news as it may affect a "narrative change" in the MSM. If Gallup swings back to Obama, the momentum will increase in his direction again. Two weeks is a long time and the more momentum, positive and GOTV we have, the better.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:32 PM

JackN415 (740 posts)

13. Charlotte: is it related to Charlotte's web by any mean?

in any case, if you are trying to build up your credibility here, ignore gallup, rass, gravis, etc. DU here are too sophisticated to fall for these things.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:21 PM

Maximumnegro (920 posts)

9. No it won't. Historically

Gallup is just off the mark with their LV. They are not going to line up with current polling. They will come down to +2-3% for Romney at most. They've done it before. It's what they do. Really is not worth hoping that they will come back to the fold. Not sure why anybody should care if they do or don't.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:27 PM

Charlotte Little (133 posts)

10. I care...

Because so many of you on here are just a bunch of whining, sad sack losers.

Yes, I said it.

Every time anyone posts something positive, you guys find a way to spin it negative. Really, just go join the Freepers with your doom and gloom. Imagine if I'd put up a thread that said Gallup was going to report Romney with 10 pt lead? I think sometimes that is what many of you want on here - so you wallow and simper. Pathetic.

And before anyone tells me to not let the door hit me in the ass on the way out - I am willingly exiting this place.

It stinks to high heaven of desperation and losing - exactly what the President and the Democrats does not need.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:34 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

14. If You Are Truly Invested In Obama Winning Please Stay.

DU has been infested by trolls and consequently many of my colleagues here have a hair trigger finger. If O is doing better in Gallup that would take away a huge right wing talking point. However, I don't have much faith in them. I watched that poll every day in 00, hoping they would get it right in the end and they never did.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:34 PM

woolldog (6,830 posts)

15. Put up your feet

and stay a while, Charlotte.

Sure there are some nutty neurotics here, myself included. But we're all on the same team.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:36 PM

JackN415 (740 posts)

16. showing color after 54 posts? n/t. Be back here on Nov 7, will you?

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Response to JackN415 (Reply #16)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:36 PM

woolldog (6,830 posts)

17. ^

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Response to Charlotte Little (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:46 PM

progressivebydesign (19,363 posts)

19. I agree that it's been testy around here. BUT.. the Gallup polls are worthless.

And I think that's the point. Not that people want to rain on good news, they're pointing out (to a new poster) that Gallup is not a poll to watch. They are aligned with the republicans, they use a "likely voter" model that is ridiculous. and they oversample the South... when it doesn't matter what people in Alabama do in regard to the Electoral College.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:51 PM

Maximumnegro (920 posts)

22. All of my posts are enthusiastic

(I don't think folks do a good job of tracking people's posts here) and I am on your side. I am saying that Gallup is going to be a bearer of bad news more often than not and that their model has been criticized widely so using them as a picker upper is not the best bet. It's like putting up a Ras poll with good numbers - the pollster has such a sketchy rep that validating it even though it's positive just makes their inevitable negative poll that more effective. There are plenty of polls with great news.

Hope you see what I'm sayin'.

And don't for get the Halperin(!!!) article today with the O campaign - THAT is some seriously awesome news!

And yes, Dems are wussy worrywarts.

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:29 PM

kennetha (1,569 posts)

11. Check out my post on public vs private polling

And you'll see why you shouldn't be so concerned about the plethora of public polls. They contain some information, but also a lot of noise, and their likely voter screens are terrible at actually predicting the electorate.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021622131

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:31 PM

polichick (30,375 posts)

12. Why do they sample more from the south - just to skew the results probably.

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Response to polichick (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:54 PM

cthulu2016 (7,946 posts)

20. The south is the most populous region

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:44 PM

progressivebydesign (19,363 posts)

18. Sorry, Gallup polls are worthless. They oversample likely voters, and are right wingers. nt

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Response to Charlotte Little (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:04 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

21. She Was Spot On. TY./nt

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Politics 2013 (Forum)