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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:33 AM

Why are Republicans projecting confidence and Democrats worry?

One thing that strikes me is that almost all electoral counts favor Obama, many national polls favor Obama, and the anecdotal evidence of enthusiasm favors Obama (such as huge turnout in NC and huge crowds at his rallies). Yet, for some reason, a lot of us are especially worried. I am one of them. Yet without a doubt I'd rather have Obama's polling numbers than Rmoney's.

So, I wonder, is there a different psychological makeup between Republicans and Democrats? Are we more superstitious? Are we more neurotic? Or are we simply cynics and pessimists? I remember in 2008, even though all the evidence pointed to an Obama victory, most of us were thrilled beyond belief that he won. I was among those who felt fairly sure that a large part of the population was lying to pollsters and would actually vote for the white guy in 2008. Boy was I wrong!

I feel the same sort of worry now. I worry about polling machines being manipulated, about our voters not turning out in the same proportion as Republicans on election day, about last minute manipulation tricking Democrats to miss election day or denying them the right to vote by slowing down the process on election day.

I wish I shared the confidence in an Obama victory that Rmoney supporters seem to project about their guy. Why are we more worried than them? Should we be?

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Reply Why are Republicans projecting confidence and Democrats worry? (Original post)
Onlooker Oct 2012 OP
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #1
bigdarryl Oct 2012 #3
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #7
bigdarryl Oct 2012 #2
politicman Oct 2012 #9
alsame Oct 2012 #4
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #5
katmondoo Oct 2012 #6
Grammy23 Oct 2012 #25
fugop Oct 2012 #8
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #29
Bluenorthwest Oct 2012 #10
s-cubed Oct 2012 #11
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #30
gravity Oct 2012 #12
Texin Oct 2012 #13
Jennicut Oct 2012 #14
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #31
BigDemVoter Oct 2012 #15
bamacrat Oct 2012 #24
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #27
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #16
Arkana Oct 2012 #17
Johnny2X2X Oct 2012 #18
Amphigouri Oct 2012 #19
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #32
kurt_cagle Oct 2012 #20
libdem4life Oct 2012 #28
Cherchez la Femme Oct 2012 #21
NHDEMFORLIFE Oct 2012 #22
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #23
smorkingapple Oct 2012 #26
Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #33

Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:37 AM

1. I wouldn't be worried at all if the republicans weren't trying to throw this election at every turn

If there was no voter suppression, voter intimidation, voter registrations being thrown in the trash, voting machines owned by a Romney investor, Super PACS funded with millions and millions of dollars by greedy people wanting to control all the wealth and power - I wouldn't be worried at all. Not at all. Obama would win hands down. But with all this bullshit happening, there is no way of knowing how the effects of one, all or a combination of them will play out

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:40 AM

3. Thats why the Obama team is telling most people to vote EARLY so

they can build up a large lead heading into election day that it will be almost impossible to steal

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:43 AM

7. I know if I lived in a swing state with controversy over the vote

I'd be going early. Just to make sure no one hassled me and I was at the right polling place. Everyone in Ohio should be going as early as they possibly can - especially if they plan on voting for the president. Avoid any challenges, purposeful long waits to vote etc.

It is really disgusting what the repubs are doing everywhere. I even heard of some questionable practices with a some county ballots here in Colorado. They will stop at nothing to cheat to win.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:37 AM

2. Because there probably looking at stupid Rasmussen polling

they are lagging in early voting right now so if I'm them I wouldn't be confident about anything NC might be the SHOCKER of election night

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:44 AM

9. i agree

I agree.

NC currently has 2,800,000 registered DEMS and 2,000,000 Registered GOP.

So Romney would have to win a massive block of the unafilliateds to pull off a victory there.


can't see that happening at all.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:41 AM

4. Because they cheat. nt

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:41 AM

5. Someone posted on Dr Wang's site a week ago....

"Conservatives think their winning even when they're losing. Liberals think their losing even when they're winning."

I have a guy I interact with who's a hard core righty. Right before the last election, he told me McCain was going to win and he couldn't wait for Palin to be VP. The next time I saw him, he told me how he spent election night curled up in a fetal position.

Just last week, he was saying "I SMELL LANDSLIDE!!" and declared the only poll he cares about is on election day.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:42 AM

6. Bush/Kerry

We thought it would be a Kerry win when suddenly 11:00 PM it all changed Ohio went to Bush. 2000 Gore win stopped in Florida by about 500 votes. You all know what happened next. Yes we still worry. Who knows what foul deed the Republicans can come up with.

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Response to katmondoo (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:47 AM

25. You are right...some of us have been burned in past elections. And we have long


memories. I do worry about efforts to suppress votes, flip votes and assorted other tricks used by the Republicans to "help" their candidates win. I remember very well what it was like in 2004 to see it all slip away in a few minutes and realize after reading countless posts on this site WHY it happened. It was not just a bunch of whiners and complainers expressing sour grapes. There were credible reasons to believe that the election had been stolen right under our noses.

So yes, we worry and some of us worry a lot. When I do that I try to go to reliable sources to ease my fears. I know that stealing an election requires a CLOSE race and that explains why we are told relentlessly that it's close. Then when I look at EC estimates (by Nate Silver and Princeton) I realize Romney has a serious uphill climb to make it "close". They are playing a game with us to make us worry about the polls that show Romney ahead (or very close) and ignore the information that should console us.

In the end, it's Electoral College that matters (counts) and right now, Obama is in a better position than Romney and that's what I am trying to focus on. I figure all the rest of it is just noise and blather intended to dispirit us and we really, really can't let that happen. Keep your eyes on re-election of Obama/Biden and BE SURE TO VOTE. No matter how you do it, just VOTE.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:43 AM

8. Because Democrats are lousy at this.

Look at the Democrats after President Obama's debate, wailing and gnashing their teeth over how awful he was.

Now look at the Republicans after Romney's colossal failure at the foreign policy debate. Note how many of them said in spite of Romney's awful performance, that he "did what he needed to do." That he looked "statesmanlike" and "presidential" in spite of crap answers and flop sweat that could drown a fish.

I am a Democrat through and through, but it drives me crazy that we again and again crap all over our candidates the minute a GOPer or media pundit says, "BOO!"

I'm not saying we should be like the right and lie that our guy was spectacular in the first debate. He wasn't. But after all this time, we still fail to frame the narrative in a winning way. "President Obama won that debate on substance, no question. Mitt Romney talked fast and loud and told lie after lie. Could the president have been more aggressive? Absolutely. But without a doubt he beat the crap out of Romney on substance, and that's what matters."

OK, maybe not the crap part. But still. If Democrats could learn to be winners, it would be a big help to those of us who get so frustrated with their inability to play this game. And it is a game. Unfortunately. But it is what it is.

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Response to fugop (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:12 PM

29. Right on. Dems don't know how to think like winners. Period.

Except for the President. Thank God.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:45 AM

10. When winning, one keeps an eye on maintaining victory, when losing all one can do

is puff up and claim to be winning. They have the time to waste on ego tripping. If you take the time to look, you will find that nearly all politicians and their supporters attempt to project confiedence, just as all competetors do. The day before they lose, they say 'I'm feeling great, the momentum is on our side!'. You can not find any examples of politicians on the verge of defeat saying 'we are abou to lose'. If that's what you expect, give up. Not how it works.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:45 AM

11. Because Ds live in the reality world and know it's not over til it's over. nt

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Response to s-cubed (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:15 PM

30. What does that have to anxiety, negative

motivation and a complete inability to not crumple at the slightest pushback from media or GOP.

Oh and reality says Obama is a lock for the win. OH+NV.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:46 AM

12. Republicans are better at ignoring reality

Romney is pushing the narrative that they have momentum and Republicans like to cherry pick polls. They have no respect for objective evidence so it is easier to deceive themselves.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:49 AM

13. Good question!

"Are we more neurotic? Or are we simply cynics and pessimists? I remember in 2008, even though all the evidence pointed to an Obama victory, most of us were thrilled beyond belief that he won. I was among those who felt fairly sure that a large part of the population was lying to pollsters and would actually vote for the white guy in 2008. Boy was I wrong!"

Maybe it's a case of "fool me once, shame on you" syndrome.

I'll never forget 2000 and 2004. God and Jesus wouldn't convince me that Bush didn't steal both elections. I think it's indisputable. In watching TRMS last night, the show focused on what's happening right now on the ground in both Colorado (a complete train wreck) and Forida. The whole state of Colorado is at the mercy of a Rethug Secretary of State, and the big question Rachel asked was whether the SOS of Colorado was destined to become this election's Katherine Harris. The streamlined, so-called easy electronic registrations have been discovered to have failed to tabulate and register thousands of online registrants - and most of them didn't discover it until they went to the polls to vote in early voting - one day ONE.DAY before the cut-off for registration alltogether. What's worse, those people who did find out tried to register (yesterday I think) and the whole system was crashed. Thousands of people disenfranchised with no remedy.

So, maybe that's what we're worried about. It's just effin easy to progam the system to get the outcome of their choice, and this year, most of the Secretaries of State in the swing states are rethugs. Nobody will convince me that they wouldn't and won't mess with these systems to make Mittens the next POTUS.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:56 AM

14. Because Repubs are naturally assholes and Dems are naturally worriers.

Pretty simple.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:15 PM

31. Which attitude is more likely to win anything?

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:57 AM

15. Don't forget the 5-4 decision of the SCOTUS

that illegitimately placed the squatter, GWB, in the WH.

We've had our votes stolen, our elections overturned, and our voters intimidated. That's why we're worried.

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Response to BigDemVoter (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:41 AM

24. +1 Beat me to it. n/t

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Response to BigDemVoter (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:57 AM

27. +1

Too damn true.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:57 AM

16. I don't know

The Republicans are all looking at this:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

President: Romney 321, Obama 217



I don't know what the deal is with Democrats. We are winning. We just have to GOTV and win.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:58 AM

17. Because we both know Americans are idiots.

Republicans benefit from that, Democrats do not.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:04 AM

18. Surge

Because Rmoney was getting creamed a few weeks ago until the 1st debate. He's been gaining since then and if that trend continued through the elction he probably wins. Seeing Rasmussen and gallup +4 and +5 Rmoney is nerve wracking. They can't be totally dismissed.

Obama stopped this trend on Monday night IMO. He'll win now, maybe even comfortably, but it's too close for comfort.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:27 AM

19. The magic number is 50

What makes me nervous, and what keeps me working phone banks and canvassing, is the 48% the president can't break in OH, WI or MI. It's true Obama is up in all three, but traditionally, an incumbent president needs to be at 50 in the polls to feel comfortable. Undecideds at this point in a campaign break for the challenger 2/3 of the time. A 49 - 47 Obama lead is actually a dead heat. Where you see the president with 48 or less indicates he is likely behind. I'm Also a little worried because of the anecdotal evidence I see. While it means nothing really, 4 years ago the I-4 corridor in Florida was covered in Obama signs; this time it is the other way around. Like I said, this really means nothing; still. It makes me nervous.

I think it is a bad thing if we feel comfortable. If we get complacent, we lose this thing.

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Response to Amphigouri (Reply #19)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:17 PM

32. You are living in another reality

because you are worried about the three states the campaign has openly stated they are LEAST worried about.

So good luck with that.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:33 AM

20. It's genetic

I've long had a suspicion that when you look at the core of each party - the 30% that will always reliably vote Republican and the 25% or so that will vote Democratic - that you see two subtly genetically different groups (this distinction fades outside the cores). The Republican core tend to be ESTJs and ESFJs - generally extroverted, strongly influenced by symbolism, authoritarian, have virtually no intuition and are highly judgmental. The Democratic core are INTPs, INTJs and INFPs. They are more introverted, generally have a higher degree of intuition and empathy, are usually more systemic thinkers, and are more open or perceptive. There are exceptions (Bill Clinton is a classic ENTJ, though I think Hillary is an INTJ - she's much more analytical than Bill, much more reserved emotionally, Barack is an ENFP) but usually intuition seems to be a common feature both among Democratic leaders and Democratic supporters.

One consequence of that intuition, however, is that Dems are constantly shifting through scenarios, evaluating possibilities, and having seen those possibilities are more worried about the consequences if things go wrong. Republicans generally tend to be much less likely to "run the numbers" in their heads. They have greater certainty about the future because they normally see the world only in two states - they will win or they will lose, and losing is not an option. The irony is that this means in general that Republicans tend to be bolder moving forward, because there is no uncertainty or second guessing in their world, and because they are bolder they tend to take more risks. Of course, the likelihood that those actions could have terrible consequences is also high, precisely because Republicans also tend to externalize the failure of their bets (it's not my fault that the market crashed, that the Iraqis put up more resistance, that ... ).

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Response to kurt_cagle (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:07 PM

28. Good post. I tend to think of Rs as single line of sheep, all with their noses in the rear of

the one in front..trudging along. Just need one Lead Sheep.

The Ds, on the other hand, as trying to herd cats and whoever heard of a Lead Cat. But I'm proud to be an intelligent, thinking aware, even wily "cat" any day. And the one thing we have on them, is that any or all of us can see their Lead Sheep usually before they have a clue.

Maybe that's why they get so unhinged and controlling over everyone's personal parts...ladies and men. Cause when in lockstep, that there's pretty much the view.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:34 AM

21. Um... because Repukes lie and cheat, consequence-free?

And Democrats (most usually) don't have the spine to do one gott-damm thing to refute any of it?

That's what shocked me about the Gloria Alfred announcement -- DEMOCRATS are presenting an October Surprise?! WOW!

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:38 AM

22. They lie as easily as we breathe n/t

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:41 AM

23. Romney screws up in the debate

Republicans just say he was in the lead and was playing safe. That is such bs. Romney needed that debate more than President Obama.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 AM

26. I'm worried because we're not controlling the narrative. Lots of bad press

I think all of these are minor but have been played up to hysteria levels by a media that deep down knows Obama is very likely to win. Don't take these as my personal views but put yourself in the "undecided voter" mode for a minute and think about how it looks to them:

Des Moines Register interview off record(what the fuck was he thinking there?)
Benghazi bullshit
"No plan" for next 4 years
"Focusing on small things" like Big Bird, Romnesia, etc.
Romney's "momentum" which is total bullshit but it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy when not rebutted
Gallup polls

Republicans were already frothing at the mouth to kick him out off office, I feel all this shit is just adding to their enthusiasm while sapping ours. This is part of Romney's plan. This is why he plays up moving one guy out of NC, and 25000 tickets to a venue only holding 9000. It keeps the momentum story alive and negates some of Obama's bump from the debate wins.

There have been some missteps in the last month which is the worst time to be making mistakes. Obama and his team must have known the media was not going to allow him to run away with this, especially after the 1st debate and they didn't seem to have a plan to manage the stories being put out and control the narrative.

Maybe they think the ground game is all that matters and I think that's the real reason, it just makes those of us that care and obsess over this shit worry too much.

My 2c.

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Response to Onlooker (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:21 PM

33. The Repubs are behind

They're bluffing

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