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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:26 AM

Lets Get One Thing Straight About Rasmussen....

yes in 08 they were very close.

however, in 2012 they have completely underestimated Obama's ground game and ability to get registered voters to the polls. their "likely voter" model is without a doubt off by at least 4 points nationally because they are married to the fact that there is a huge gap between likely and registered and that it will not be closed at all (not even a point or 2 according to them) on election day. they are putting 100% value into Likely Voters and 0% Value into Registered Voters when in reality they should be putting putting at least 10-15% value into Registered Voters and 85-90% into Likely Voters.

just thought I'd throw my .02 in because Rasmussen comes up everyday here and people tend to freak out a bit.

9 replies, 1133 views

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Arrow 9 replies Author Time Post
Reply Lets Get One Thing Straight About Rasmussen.... (Original post)
JiminyJominy Oct 2012 OP
Tippy Oct 2012 #1
Debitcrat Oct 2012 #2
reflection Oct 2012 #4
The Velveteen Ocelot Oct 2012 #5
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #8
leftynyc Oct 2012 #6
OKNancy Oct 2012 #7
brush Oct 2012 #9
bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #3

Response to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:30 AM

1. Rassmussen is and always has been a joke...

Not at all trustworthy....

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Response to JiminyJominy (Original post)


Response to Debitcrat (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:39 AM

4. Welcome to DU!

Enjoy your stay!

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Response to Debitcrat (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:41 AM

5. Minnesota goes for Romney? What are they smoking?

No way in hell - Minnesota is solid Obama by +10, has been all along. In fact, the whole "poll" (and its source) has a bit of an odor....

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:48 AM

8. Dumbass poli-sci guys

You'd think they'd know that if Minnesota goes red, there's no way Iowa doesn't too, but I guess that's what a University of Colorado education gets you.

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Response to Debitcrat (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:43 AM

6. That's the funniest thing

I've seen today. It is going to be glorious to bask in the tears of the right soon enough. Univ of Colorado study? You guys are hilarious.

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Response to leftynyc (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:44 AM

7. He's gone.. what's really funny is the article is from August 23

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Response to Debitcrat (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:01 AM

9. How about some accuracy

People on this site have long known that both Rassmussen and Gallup are right-leaning polls and their results are not, how should we say . . . ACCURATE! Their "likely voter model" discounts registered voters, most voters with cell phones and now with early voting, ignores ACTUAL voters. The president is leading 2 to 1 in people who have already ACTUALLY voted. It's not likely (there's that word again) that that's going to change enough through the early voting period and on election day for Romney to catch up. He tried though, but you can see through his and Queen Ann's body language after the third debate that they knew it was over (internal poll results). She actually had to physically support him on the stage. We don't fall for the flawed polls and the corporate media's reporting of their "horserace close" results. They want the multi-million dollar ad buys to continue as long as possible. Campaigns have their own internal polls that they can't afford to skew one way or the other. They have to be accurate so they know where to deploy resources and my guess is that those internal polls tell the real story just as they did 4 years ago. Two weeks before the 2008 election anyone who was paying attention and not fooling themselves knew McCain was going to lose, and he did. The same thing is happening now. The last two debates exposed Romney as the shape-shifting, bullying, lying, and at the same time lightweight and out of his depth candidate that he is. What a combination of characteristics, and not a winning one, I might add.

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Response to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:37 AM

3. And what happened to their rolling poll? it just updated to Oct 21 - 23

so where are the numbers they inflated all of october that were listed on rcp?
the next ras poll listed is from oct 4 - 6. so where are those inflated numbers
we saw oct 7 - 20 that gave romney his fake "bump" because it was figured
into the rcp average? if ras started a new weekly rolling poll, then the last
one should be visible on the list of polls that aren't used anymore. did it
just disappear into thin air?

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