Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:39 AM

Larry Sabato's electoral map: Obama needs just 3 more EV to win it

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:54 AM USA/ET - Edit history (4)

I choose Larry Sabato because, despite the ridiculous "he-works-for-Fox-therefore-he-sucks' claims, he's the most historically accurate predictor of election outcomes in the nation...(better than Nate, better than Charlie Cook,. better than everyone out there) and he does not simply give you the Presidential estimate. he takes the chance of predicting EVERYTHING, House, Senate, President...and he's been just shy of 100% accuracy in the past.

That said, his map has Obama with 267 EV, with Wisconsin, VA, NH and Colorado as toss-ups. The latest Marquette poll (Obama +1) made Sabato move WI to tossup.

Bottom line is that this map looks very good for Obama, as he will definitely win at least one of these 4 states, IMO.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

14 replies, 1413 views

Reply to this thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum

Replies to this discussion thread

14 replies	Author	Time	Post
Larry Sabato's electoral map: Obama needs just 3 more EV to win it (Original post)	Welcome_hubby	Oct 2012	OP
Don't you mean Obama will win one of these four states?	writes3000	Oct 2012	#1
Why would Wisconsin be a tossup and Ohio be lean Obama?	MadBadger	Oct 2012	#2
Romney has never been ahead in Ohio	fugop	Oct 2012	#5
Ive seen a few polls tied though. Havent seen that in Wisconsin	MadBadger	Oct 2012	#11
What, Suffolk and Ras?	fugop	Oct 2012	#13
How can you say that Ohio is more solid than Wisconsin with all the information out there?	MadBadger	Oct 2012	#14
I'd place Ohio and Wisconsin	Tutonic	Oct 2012	#7
Thank You	amuse bouche	Oct 2012	#3
Obama is less favored in WI than OH	exboyfil	Oct 2012	#4
MadBadger	JiminyJominy	Oct 2012	#6
NH is not a toss-up	NHDEMFORLIFE	Oct 2012	#8
some math regarding NC and why it looks like going to Obama	politicman	Oct 2012	#9
From what I've seen	MSMITH33156	Oct 2012	#10
WI is more in Obama's favor than...	TexasCPA	Oct 2012	#12

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:47 AM

writes3000 (3,504 posts)

1. Don't you mean Obama will win one of these four states?

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:49 AM

MadBadger (23,359 posts)

2. Why would Wisconsin be a tossup and Ohio be lean Obama?

Should be reversed if anything

Reply to this post

Response to MadBadger (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:03 AM

fugop (1,826 posts)

5. Romney has never been ahead in Ohio

Ohio is Obama's.

Reply to this post

Response to fugop (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:21 AM

MadBadger (23,359 posts)

11. Ive seen a few polls tied though. Havent seen that in Wisconsin

Reply to this post

Response to MadBadger (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:36 AM

fugop (1,826 posts)

13. What, Suffolk and Ras?

Not buying it. In fact, the thing that cracked me up most about Suffolk was the question where they asked people which newsmedia organization they trusted most. They listed a ton of them. A third of the people questioned said Fox News was their most trusted source of news. That makes their results not at all surprising.

And Rasmussen's lean right is well known.

As I said, not buying it. Ohio is Obama's. Of course, I think Wisconsin is, too, but we'll see. I do agree that Ohio is more solid than Wisconsin at this point though, so Wis. makes more sense as a tossup.

Reply to this post

Response to fugop (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:40 AM

MadBadger (23,359 posts)

14. How can you say that Ohio is more solid than Wisconsin with all the information out there?

Pollster has Wisconsin at O+4. They have Ohio O+2.

Wisconsin is definitely more in the Obama column than Ohio in my mind. i think he wins both but if i had to choose one today, its Wisconsin.

Reply to this post

Response to MadBadger (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:17 AM

Tutonic (2,470 posts)

7. I'd place Ohio and Wisconsin

in Blue territory.

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:54 AM

amuse bouche (1,706 posts)

3. Thank You

That's encouraging.

However "he-works-for-Fox-therefore-he-sucks"...nothing 'ridiculous' about that statement. They pretty much do suck

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:54 AM

exboyfil (3,396 posts)

4. Obama is less favored in WI than OH

I don't buy that at all.

Most likely scenario:

PA, MI, OH, WI, and IA for the win. Obama can win CO instead of WI or NV instead of IA.

If Obama wins Ohio he wins the election. He still might win without Ohio (FL and one other for example).

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:04 AM

JiminyJominy (340 posts)

6. MadBadger

is right.

it should be reversed if anything.

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:19 AM

NHDEMFORLIFE (317 posts)

8. NH is not a toss-up

There is absolutely no reason to list NH as anything less than "Likely D". And that would be a modest assessment of the President's chances here.
Personally, I'd bet the ranch on "Safe D".

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:20 AM

politicman (53 posts)

9. some math regarding NC and why it looks like going to Obama

You guys are also underestimating NC, without that Romney has no chance of winning.

A little math for you guys:

Obama needs at least 85% of registered Demcrats in NC and at least 40% of unafilliated voters to win.

Romney needs 100% of registered Republicans and 60% of unafilliated voters to even make that state close.

so which one of the above scenarios do you think is more likely to happen?

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:21 AM

MSMITH33156 (329 posts)

10. From what I've seen

this hasn't been updated since October 17th.

Reply to this post

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:23 AM

TexasCPA (527 posts)

12. WI is more in Obama's favor than...

NV, IA, and OH.

Reply to this post

Politics 2013 (Forum)