HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » Larry Sabato's electoral ...

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:39 AM

 

Larry Sabato's electoral map: Obama needs just 3 more EV to win it

I choose Larry Sabato because, despite the ridiculous "he-works-for-Fox-therefore-he-sucks' claims, he's the most historically accurate predictor of election outcomes in the nation...(better than Nate, better than Charlie Cook,. better than everyone out there) and he does not simply give you the Presidential estimate. he takes the chance of predicting EVERYTHING, House, Senate, President...and he's been just shy of 100% accuracy in the past.

That said, his map has Obama with 267 EV, with Wisconsin, VA, NH and Colorado as toss-ups. The latest Marquette poll (Obama +1) made Sabato move WI to tossup.

Bottom line is that this map looks very good for Obama, as he will definitely win at least one of these 4 states, IMO.



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

14 replies, 1977 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Larry Sabato's electoral map: Obama needs just 3 more EV to win it (Original post)
Welcome_hubby Oct 2012 OP
writes3000 Oct 2012 #1
MadBadger Oct 2012 #2
fugop Oct 2012 #5
MadBadger Oct 2012 #11
fugop Oct 2012 #13
MadBadger Oct 2012 #14
Tutonic Oct 2012 #7
amuse bouche Oct 2012 #3
exboyfil Oct 2012 #4
JiminyJominy Oct 2012 #6
NHDEMFORLIFE Oct 2012 #8
politicman Oct 2012 #9
MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #10
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #12

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:47 AM

1. Don't you mean Obama will win one of these four states?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:49 AM

2. Why would Wisconsin be a tossup and Ohio be lean Obama?

Should be reversed if anything

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MadBadger (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:03 AM

5. Romney has never been ahead in Ohio

Ohio is Obama's.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to fugop (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:21 AM

11. Ive seen a few polls tied though. Havent seen that in Wisconsin

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MadBadger (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:36 AM

13. What, Suffolk and Ras?

Not buying it. In fact, the thing that cracked me up most about Suffolk was the question where they asked people which newsmedia organization they trusted most. They listed a ton of them. A third of the people questioned said Fox News was their most trusted source of news. That makes their results not at all surprising.

And Rasmussen's lean right is well known.

As I said, not buying it. Ohio is Obama's. Of course, I think Wisconsin is, too, but we'll see. I do agree that Ohio is more solid than Wisconsin at this point though, so Wis. makes more sense as a tossup.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to fugop (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:40 AM

14. How can you say that Ohio is more solid than Wisconsin with all the information out there?

Pollster has Wisconsin at O+4. They have Ohio O+2.

Wisconsin is definitely more in the Obama column than Ohio in my mind. i think he wins both but if i had to choose one today, its Wisconsin.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MadBadger (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:17 AM

7. I'd place Ohio and Wisconsin

in Blue territory.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:54 AM

3. Thank You

That's encouraging.

However "he-works-for-Fox-therefore-he-sucks"...nothing 'ridiculous' about that statement. They pretty much do suck

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:54 AM

4. Obama is less favored in WI than OH

I don't buy that at all.

Most likely scenario:

PA, MI, OH, WI, and IA for the win. Obama can win CO instead of WI or NV instead of IA.

If Obama wins Ohio he wins the election. He still might win without Ohio (FL and one other for example).

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:04 AM

6. MadBadger

is right.

it should be reversed if anything.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:19 AM

8. NH is not a toss-up

There is absolutely no reason to list NH as anything less than "Likely D". And that would be a modest assessment of the President's chances here.
Personally, I'd bet the ranch on "Safe D".

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:20 AM

9. some math regarding NC and why it looks like going to Obama

You guys are also underestimating NC, without that Romney has no chance of winning.

A little math for you guys:

Obama needs at least 85% of registered Demcrats in NC and at least 40% of unafilliated voters to win.

Romney needs 100% of registered Republicans and 60% of unafilliated voters to even make that state close.


so which one of the above scenarios do you think is more likely to happen?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:21 AM

10. From what I've seen

this hasn't been updated since October 17th.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:23 AM

12. WI is more in Obama's favor than...

NV, IA, and OH.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread