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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:28 AM

Old Dominion University: Virginia (Obama 50%, Romney 43%)

Kind of an odd poll considering the one month date range, but Teagan Goddard just posted it, so I thought it was worth a look.

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October 24, 2012

President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney among likely Virginia voters, according to a new Old Dominion University poll, but the survey taken in the weeks before and after their first debate indicates Romney is closing the gap.

The landline and cellphone survey, conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 17 by ODU's Social Science Research Center, found that Obama was favored by 50 percent, Romney by 43 percent and three other presidential candidates by a combined 3 percent.

Just over 3 percent of those polled said they were undecided or didn't know. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Poll takers began to see a marked shift toward Romney after the Oct. 3 televised debate in Denver, said Jesse Richman, an assistant professor of political science at ODU who analyzed the poll results.

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More:

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/obamas-still-virginia-romneys-closing-gap

19 replies, 2329 views

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Reply Old Dominion University: Virginia (Obama 50%, Romney 43%) (Original post)
TroyD Oct 2012 OP
BainsBane Oct 2012 #1
vi5 Oct 2012 #2
Thrill Oct 2012 #8
vi5 Oct 2012 #10
FBaggins Oct 2012 #11
BeyondGeography Oct 2012 #3
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #6
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #4
demOcrat11 Oct 2012 #5
vdogg Oct 2012 #7
Setsuna1972 Oct 2012 #9
yellowcanine Oct 2012 #12
Arkana Oct 2012 #13
bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #14
Azathoth Oct 2012 #15
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #16
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #17
rayofreason Oct 2012 #18
GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #19

Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:30 AM

1. If this holds for the election

That's it for Romney. He can't win if he loses both VA and OH.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:34 AM

2. I don't believe we'll take VA.

I'd love to be wrong, and this is a nice shot in the arm of optimism. But I'm guessing an outlier.

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Response to vi5 (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:02 AM

8. Has there been ANY VA Poll with Mittens leading there?

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Response to Thrill (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:11 AM

10. I thought there were

Maybe I'm thinking of a different state to be honest with you. At this point my mind is becoming numb and hazy with all the numbers and polls and everything else. I thought VA was trending solidly R. I hope I'm wrong.

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Response to Thrill (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:19 AM

11. A few, yes.

Rasmussen, ARG, NBC/Marist all have small (inside the MOE) leads for Romney in their most recent polls. WeAskAmerica had one just after the first debate and hasn't polled since then.

There have been a couple others, but IIRC, they were all sponsored polls (by Citizens United for instance).

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:35 AM

3. This one is useless

2/3 taken before the first debate. We're still in decent shape in VA, but nowhere near +7.

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:05 AM

6. this poll was a waste of money

may as well have 1 poll from jan1 to nov1

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:40 AM

4. makes no sense to poll like that

i think va is dead even right now.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:58 AM

5. Possibility

I live in hampton roads and a lead for Obama that big doesnt seem to be the case. There is a lot of diversity though so its possible.

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Response to demOcrat11 (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:09 AM

7. I live

In HR too. This is a very purple area. As long as O keeps this area to McCain levels (M 55 O 45) we should be alright. Nova will bring it home. I remember back in 2008 when the first totals were coming in we were down by about 10. Didn't turnaround til they started counting Nova which came later in the night. We're def not plus 7 though.

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Response to demOcrat11 (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:05 AM

9. also in HR

I think we'll be just fine, McCain had much more lively support in 2008, this year it's more like ,"well we don't like Obama, but Mitt's all we've got" for the local Repukes

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:22 AM

12. Too old to be of much use.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:32 AM

13. Not a good poll--the range on it makes it crappy.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:38 AM

14. Why aren't there more polls on VA? RCP shows a tie there.

All of these stupid Connecticut polls but they can't do VA???

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:01 PM

15. This isn't a good poll for us n/t

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:01 PM

16. Obama has a very good chance to take Virginia again.

It will not be by this margin though. Should he win the state, expect the margin to be 2-4%.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:03 PM

17. I don't care for polls that have that long a month long calling period. Also it's hard to know how

the race actually is TODAY.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:05 PM

18. Useless. A month is a lifetime in politics. n/t

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