HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » Which swing state will po...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:23 AM

 

Which swing state will pollsters screw up most badly?

Colorado is my #1 candidate. Polls were atrocious in 2008 throughout the southwest, with Obama's support being grossly misrepressented in final polls. It has been argued that this area with a high concentration of hispanics requires bilingual interviewers asking poll questions, as many spanish-speaking people with poor english understanding do not bother to participate.

I read Colorado's hispanic population is one of the fastest-growing in America.

Pennsylvania is another state where I think Obama's 5%-7% poll lead is way too low, and he will win by double digits or 9% at the least.

In Colorado in '08, Obama won by 9%, with the poll average being 5.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

Keep an eye on Virginia as well, as many Hispanics have been moving there from the North.

10 replies, 857 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Reply Which swing state will pollsters screw up most badly? (Original post)
Welcome_hubby Oct 2012 OP
mzmolly Oct 2012 #1
pointsoflight Oct 2012 #2
DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #3
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #4
davidpdx Oct 2012 #5
Blueprogress Oct 2012 #6
Jennicut Oct 2012 #7
RedSpartan Oct 2012 #8
obamanut2012 Oct 2012 #9
Major Hogwash Oct 2012 #10

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:26 AM

1. Ohio was undervalued for Obama, by 2.5 on the RCP average

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:36 AM

2. North Carolina could end up quite different.

Seems to me the polls could be way off there, given that people can register and vote right on the spot.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:49 AM

3. North Carolina!!

This is NOT Rmoneys - this is Obama's State! Not being hopeful I am being serious. If this state is not blue on election night I will shave my head!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DemKittyNC (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:27 AM

4. That wouldn't be much of a bet

for me as I comb my hair with a paper towel(old joke about the type of comb a bald man uses.) I also believe this state is very much in play and am surprised it's been removed as a swing state.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:27 AM

5. Depends if you are talking about whether the state is called wrong, or the percentage

I think there are a whole bunch that will be off. Ohio, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada and Virginia

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:32 AM

6. More than one

I call bs on some of these polls but I believe NC is going to Obama.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:11 AM

7. CO seems to be hard to poll, maybe NH too.

CO has gone back and forth for Obama and Romney in the polling. Confusing to say the least.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:14 AM

8. Virginia

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:19 AM

9. NC

I think it will be closer to blue than the pollsters are saying.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:23 AM

10. They are all so focused on Ohio right now that I think they are missing what is going on . . .

. . . in the state of Arizona.

A state that the Romney campaign just assumed that they would win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread