Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:23 AM
Welcome_hubby (312 posts)
Which swing state will pollsters screw up most badly?Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:24 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)
Colorado is my #1 candidate. Polls were atrocious in 2008 throughout the southwest, with Obama's support being grossly misrepressented in final polls. It has been argued that this area with a high concentration of hispanics requires bilingual interviewers asking poll questions, as many spanish-speaking people with poor english understanding do not bother to participate.
I read Colorado's hispanic population is one of the fastest-growing in America. Pennsylvania is another state where I think Obama's 5%-7% poll lead is way too low, and he will win by double digits or 9% at the least. In Colorado in '08, Obama won by 9%, with the poll average being 5.5% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html Keep an eye on Virginia as well, as many Hispanics have been moving there from the North.
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10 replies, 686 views
| Author | Time | Post | |
| Welcome_hubby | Oct 2012 | OP | |
| mzmolly | Oct 2012 | #1 | |
| pointsoflight | Oct 2012 | #2 | |
| DemKittyNC | Oct 2012 | #3 | |
| oswaldactedalone | Oct 2012 | #4 | |
| davidpdx | Oct 2012 | #5 | |
| Blueprogress | Oct 2012 | #6 | |
| Jennicut | Oct 2012 | #7 | |
| RedSpartan | Oct 2012 | #8 | |
| obamanut2012 | Oct 2012 | #9 | |
| Major Hogwash | Oct 2012 | #10 |
Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:26 AM
mzmolly (47,353 posts)
1. Ohio was undervalued for Obama, by 2.5 on the RCP average
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model also.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html Interesting thread. Thanks. |
Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:36 AM
pointsoflight (1,265 posts)
2. North Carolina could end up quite different.
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Seems to me the polls could be way off there, given that people can register and vote right on the spot.
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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:49 AM
DemKittyNC (463 posts)
3. North Carolina!!
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This is NOT Rmoneys - this is Obama's State! Not being hopeful I am being serious. If this state is not blue on election night I will shave my head!
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Response to DemKittyNC (Reply #3)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:27 AM
oswaldactedalone (1,214 posts)
4. That wouldn't be much of a bet
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Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:27 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1) for me as I comb my hair with a paper towel(old joke about the type of comb a bald man uses.) I also believe this state is very much in play and am surprised it's been removed as a swing state.
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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:27 AM
davidpdx (8,773 posts)
5. Depends if you are talking about whether the state is called wrong, or the percentage
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I think there are a whole bunch that will be off. Ohio, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada and Virginia
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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:32 AM
Blueprogress (64 posts)
6. More than one
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I call bs on some of these polls but I believe NC is going to Obama.
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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:11 AM
Jennicut (25,335 posts)
7. CO seems to be hard to poll, maybe NH too.
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Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:12 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1) CO has gone back and forth for Obama and Romney in the polling. Confusing to say the least.
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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:14 AM
RedSpartan (1,133 posts)
8. Virginia
Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:19 AM
obamanut2012 (9,971 posts)
9. NC
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Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:29 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1) I think it will be closer to blue than the pollsters are saying.
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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:23 AM
Major Hogwash (12,365 posts)
10. They are all so focused on Ohio right now that I think they are missing what is going on . . .
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. . . in the state of Arizona.
A state that the Romney campaign just assumed that they would win. |

