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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:36 AM

 

Confessions of a political science junkie (me): I love the suspense of these last two weeks.

I love crime novels too. I like learning ten pages before the end whodunit. Same for this election.

Overall RealClearPolitics = Romney +1%

BUT swing states polls give Obama +2%

BUT polls probably
• overestimate Dem turnout (based on '08 high figure), and
• underestimate Independents who usually lean challenger

All in all, I think nobody in the Romney team or the Obama staff would bet their life savings on the outcome.

**

If any of you has an idea of what could be a game clincher in the next two weeks, let me know.

Or don't.

I think I prefer to keep the suspense till ten pages before the end

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Reply Confessions of a political science junkie (me): I love the suspense of these last two weeks. (Original post)
jeanV Oct 2012 OP
gateley Oct 2012 #1
murielm99 Oct 2012 #2
grantcart Oct 2012 #3
Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #4
Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #5
jeanV Oct 2012 #7
Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #8
jeanV Oct 2012 #11
Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #27
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #6
jeanV Oct 2012 #9
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #10
jeanV Oct 2012 #12
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #13
jeanV Oct 2012 #14
morningfog Oct 2012 #20
creon Oct 2012 #15
jeanV Oct 2012 #17
creon Oct 2012 #26
Inkfreak Oct 2012 #16
jeanV Oct 2012 #18
morningfog Oct 2012 #19
jeanV Oct 2012 #21
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #23
morningfog Oct 2012 #30
kalli007 Oct 2012 #33
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #22
jeanV Oct 2012 #24
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #25
Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #28
jeanV Oct 2012 #29
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #32
jeanV Oct 2012 #34
morningfog Oct 2012 #31
jeanV Oct 2012 #35
morningfog Oct 2012 #37
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #36
jeanV Oct 2012 #38
jeanV Oct 2012 #39
jeanV Oct 2012 #40

Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:39 AM

1. As somebody posted, s/he didn't think politics was borng anymore!

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:39 AM

2. I don't regard this as in the same category

as a crime novel or a spectator sport. It is a life or death matter. We have to win.

I have been, and will continue to keep working to GOTV.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:06 AM

3. another silly poser. There is overwhelming evidence that RV is as reliable as LV

And the only known to date is NC which is showing

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/23/1148329/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-5-Young-Voters-Are-Psyched-Age-18-24-Turnout-Up-39-7



Democrats are up 70,000 over 2008.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:21 AM

4. So, are you just sitting there watching the "end game" from in front of your computer monitor?

Or, are you, as the loyal Democrat you surely must be , doing everything you can to make sure the polls' "overestimate (of) Dem turnout" does not prove the case?
Hum? Didn't catch your answer...

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:51 AM

5. I find crime novels to be incredibly boring

I've always figured out whodunit long before the last ten pages - as do most intelligent and observant people.

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Response to Summer Hathaway (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:17 AM

7. why people can't guess whodunit in crime novels

 

I find crime novels to be incredibly boring

I've always figured out whodunit long before the last ten pages -


That is extremely unlikely.

If only because Agatha Christie wrote the same storyline three times with a different culprit each time.

(the motif of the stray bullet hitting the dinner gong)

If you had figured out whodunit long before the last ten pages, you'd have been wrong two times out of three.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:22 AM

8. And you've missed the point entirely.

But that was extremely likely.

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Response to Summer Hathaway (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:55 AM

11. No, thx, I think I got the point

 

You were trying to tell me you are 'intelligent and observant' because you can guess whodunit in crime novels.

But crime novels are written so as to allow different outcomes.

I suppose I can only congratulate you on being lucky

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Response to jeanV (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:38 PM

27. Apparently you have missed the point

which is that intelligent and observant people can read between the lines - like your OP, for example - and discern exactly where the plot is meant to lead them.

I suppose I can only congratulate you on being far more transparent than you obviously think you are.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:07 AM

6. Cute.

So, basically, you're telling us Obama is going to lose ... but doing it in the less trolly way possible, right?

For one, no the LV models are not overestimating Obama's support. Most aren't even based on the '08 numbers for that reason. If they were overestimating Obama's numbers, they'd be better, or equal, to his RV total. They're not. If anything, you could make the case they're underestimating Obama's turnout.

Yeesh.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:49 AM

9. I was not making any prediction, but mentioning the outcome was quite uncertain

 

So, basically, you're telling us Obama is going to lose

In what language am I supposed to express myself to get my meaning across:

i.e. that today, Oct 24, it is close to impossible to be sure which of the two contenders will win.

For one, no the LV models are not overestimating Obama's support. Most aren't even based on the '08 numbers for that reason. If they were overestimating Obama's numbers, they'd be better, or equal, to his RV total.

I did not make any assumption on a difference between LVs and RVs.

I just mentioned that the Democrat electorate was extremely energized in '08, maybe slightly less so this year.

To put it differently, the Daily Kos reported a higher Republican engagement this year:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147769/-Gallup-s-LV-model-has-Non-Hispanic-white-vote-at-80




Lastly, is it allowed to ask honest questions and not be reflexively called a troll?

Thank you.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:53 AM

10. It's pretty clear with your language that you're implying Obama will lose...

You say...

Overall RealClearPolitics = Romney +1%


Then...

BUT polls probably
• overestimate Dem turnout (based on '08 high figure), and
• underestimate Independents who usually lean challenger


So, you do the math. If the polls overestimate Dem turnout and independents who'll break for Romney ... doesn't that equal a loss?

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:56 AM

12. selective attention?

 

Why did you skip what I wrote:

BUT swing states polls give Obama +2%

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Response to jeanV (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:58 AM

13. Because even that equals a loss.

Face it, you're outlining an Obama loss. If the polls oversample Obama's support and undersample Romney support ... how does that work out to a victory? Just out yourself and admit you don't think Obama is going to win. If you do, then you've just thrown your own theory aside. Yeesh. It's not hard.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:47 AM

14. No, it's not too hard

 

Face it, you're outlining an Obama loss.


Amazing. Purely amazing.

I start my thread stating I do not know what will happen (whodunit, remember?)

Let me run the numbers with you. There are 130 toss up electoral votes.

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

VA polls lean Romney, maybe FLA because of Jeb Bush.
PA, NH and NV should go to Obama.

Which leaves you with battle states with Ohio being the most emblematic where polls give Obama two points ahead.

Against which you have the doubt on the Democratic turnout factored in the poll + the Romney momentum.

Both of which can't totally erase a two points lead.


Hence my original question: what are the arguments as of this minute for a win by either side?

And what could tilt things one way or the other within the next two weeks?

I am interested by the reasoning pro/con, not by witch hunting of purported intentions.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:09 AM

20. Obama has quite the cushion in the OH bank from early voting.

He could be at around 45-46% on election day and still easily win OH. Romney can't win without OH.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:24 AM

15. Polling

It is basically about polling; endless polling that always goes public. Interested parties make sure of that.

It is not a football game; but, the fatuous media, using polling data, is pumping it up as if it were.

WE all know that is not a football game or a crime novel.

I figured, in 2009, that whoever got elected in Nov 2008 was going to have a hard time getting re elected in Nov 2012.

I am not surprised that the election is close.

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Response to creon (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:50 AM

17. Agreed

 

I figured, in 2009, that whoever got elected in Nov 2008 was going to have a hard time getting re elected in Nov 2012.


Agree with you here.

Rule of thumb: it's difficult to get reelected during hard times (see Left Aznar & Brown, or Right, Sarkozy)

Most people do not have the patience to analyze who caused what, they just change teams during hardship.

Exception to the rule: FDR.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:40 PM

26. Yes

FDR was the exception to the rule

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:25 AM

16. You see seem to be catching shit

For daring to post your love of politics. What a buncha tripe. People are maddening sometimes. I agree with you. I love politics. I like rooting for my guy (yes, Obama). Fucking rec for taking some enjoyment outta life.

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Response to Inkfreak (Reply #16)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:52 AM

18. Thx n/t

 

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:06 AM

19. The game has never changed, there is no game changer coming.

Obama has always led, from day one, when you look at electoral college votes.

Obama will get at least 271. He could go as high as 300+.

Sorry to ruin the surprise for you.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #19)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:10 AM

21. The game changed after the first debate

 

Obama has always led, from day one, when you look at electoral college votes.


Not now, hence the present thread.




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Response to jeanV (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:20 AM

23. LOL

Yeah, Michigan and Pennsylvania are toss ups, and Oregon is only leaning Obama.

Gimme a fucking break.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:28 PM

30. Hahahaha. Bullshit. You are falling for the hype. Luckily, you are in the minority.

Let me tell you something. WI, MI, PA, IA and NV are not toss-ups. And, this will really blow your mind, Obama has already won Ohio! Holy shit.

That is the dumbest, most out of touch map I have seen. I don't know where you got it, nor do I care. It does not reflect reality.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:24 PM

33. It's the RCP Map, however click on "No Toss Ups"

And Obama wins. Your post is a farce.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:18 AM

22. Please tell me you've heard....

....of 538 and the Princeton Election Consortium?

That fact you are posting RCP's map tells me you are a rank amateur at this. I mean, the idea Michigan is a "toss-up", but NC leans Romney is laughable.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://election.princeton.edu/

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #22)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:41 AM

24. Agreed on states, not on RCP

 

I agree with your remark "Michigan and Pennsylvania are toss ups, and Oregon is only leaning Obama."

But disagree about dismissing the RCP map so fast.

Yes, I do read Nate Silver's 538 daily (reading the IHT helps), but the point of posting the RCP map was about change.

Before the first debate, RCP's electoral college was much more in favor of Obama, not tied like now.

Anyway, here's the best summary I found to date:

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Response to jeanV (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:46 AM

25. How can you legitimize a map....

....that doesn't give states that are CLEARLY in the Obama column to him, but leans a state that is absolutely a toss up right now to Rmoney???

Seriously.

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #25)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:44 PM

28. In the same way

one can legitimize a map that shows Iran as a land-locked country that borders Syria.

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #25)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:26 PM

29. FiveThirtyEight still indicates sigs of a close race

 

How can you legitimize a map........that doesn't give states that are CLEARLY in the Obama column to him, but leans a state that is absolutely a toss up right now to Rmoney???


I already granted you the failing of the RCP map which I had used to illustrate the change during October.

Anyway, you prefer FiveThirtyEight. Here is last Nate Silver's comment still illustrating a close race:

Tuesday featured what, on the surface, would seem to be a fairly neutral day of polling. Of the 11 national polls published on Tuesday, five showed President Obama ahead, four gave a lead to Mitt Romney and two had a tied race. On average among the polls, Mr. Romney led by 0.3 percentage points, the same as his average margin in the previous edition of the same polls.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/



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Response to jeanV (Reply #29)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:43 PM

32. Never said it wasn't close

But by god, how can anyone honestly sit there and ignore states that are clearly in one sides favor as toss ups, and put leans in the other camp's ledger when they are closer than the supposed toss-ups? It's like the sports guy coming on and breathlessly telling you Pittsburgh has scored 31 points and not mentioning that Miami has 35.

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #32)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:46 PM

34. Agreed (3rd time I say it)

 

I repeat for the third time, I agree about the inconsistencies in the RCP labeling of states as toss-up or not.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:30 PM

31. Confessions of a concern troll!

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Response to morningfog (Reply #31)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:47 PM

35. don't forget to look under your bed

 

There might be Republicans lurking there.

Thanks for your in-depth analysis of my initial question.

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Response to jeanV (Reply #35)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:56 PM

37. I answered it upthread. Your premise is wrong.

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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:51 PM

36. The fact that you are focused on rightwing site RCP outs you as a Concern Troll

perhaps you should know about TPM's Polltracker, a non-rightwing source.

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Reply #36)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:05 AM

38. TPM is currently down

 

perhaps you should know about TPM's Polltracker, a non-rightwing source.


TPM is currently down

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Reply #36)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 10:09 PM

39. FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics maps identical (Oct 26)

 

The fact that you are focused on rightwing site RCP outs you as a Concern Troll


The fact that the latest RCP map and FiveThirtyEight map are extremely close should put your worry to rest.


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Response to jeanV (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 04:20 AM

40. For those of you who didn't believe me when I said there would be political suspense

 

Last Ohio polls narrowed to a tie. Article concludes to a narrow race.

Presidential race tied in Ohio newspaper poll

Published: October 27, 2012 - 11:13 PM

Dead heat. This close. And with almost no voters saying they’re undecided.

That’s how things look in the presidential race, according to the most recent Akron Beacon Journal/Ohio Newspaper Organization poll.

President Barack Obama, 49 percent. Republican challenger Mitt Romney, ditto.

One remaining percent for “other,” and one more for “don’t know.” And all within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Narrow victory expected

All signs point to a tight election on Nov. 6.

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675

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