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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:09 AM

538's latest re-elect odds: 68.1%

No commentary yet.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

28 replies, 2450 views

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Reply 538's latest re-elect odds: 68.1% (Original post)
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 OP
TroyD Oct 2012 #1
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #5
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #24
ejbr Oct 2012 #28
aletier_v Oct 2012 #2
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #21
FVZA_Colonel Oct 2012 #22
DMacTX Oct 2012 #3
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #4
Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #8
aletier_v Oct 2012 #9
Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #23
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #6
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #25
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #7
TroyD Oct 2012 #10
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #11
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #12
politicaljack78 Oct 2012 #13
DrToast Oct 2012 #14
politicaljack78 Oct 2012 #17
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #15
politicaljack78 Oct 2012 #18
BainsBane Oct 2012 #16
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #19
dsc Oct 2012 #20
Ace Rothstein Oct 2012 #27
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #26

Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:11 AM

1. So Obama went down a couple points today

This is why this thing is not in the bag yet.

It's a close race.

Take nothing for granted and watch out for Republican vote theft at all times.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:13 AM

5. I'll take it

 

The polling was not so hot today. The SurveyUSA Ohio poll probably saved the forecast from going to something like 65, 66%. I also think the percentage went down a little because of the stock market selloff. 68.1% is still better than 2/3.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:45 AM

24. That makes no sense. You are chasing

your own tail. Nate's numbers are based on the polls you spend time slapping on the board thread after thread, so why then look at Nate and be surprised. THis makes no sense why people are doing this. Like he's going to tell you something you don't already know.

And it IS in the bag. I swear a lot of Dems have amnesia: forget everything you read from inside the campaign that's hinting at the real state of the race, only to get immediately distracted by polls and then get uncertain again until the next piece of inside info and...

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:50 AM

28. Dems do NOT have amnesia..

They probably have Romnesia. The president did say it's contagious.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:11 AM

2. what, it's down again?

I can't see any reason why.

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Response to aletier_v (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:25 AM

21. Probably the national polls...

Rasmussen and PPP both showed a two-point drop, a couple of others that were in Obama's favor tightened, and he didn't really gain in any. As I wrote before, Sam Wang at PEC, whose model uses only state, not national, polls, showed no drop yesterday.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:37 AM

22. These were conducted before the last debate, right?

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:12 AM

3. Ouch, I just checked it recently and it was still 70.0%

I was just going to bed, all relaxed, now I wish i hadn't logged back into DU.

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Response to DMacTX (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:13 AM

4. I know, a two-point drop is devastating.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:17 AM

8. LOL

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Response to Sugarcoated (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:18 AM

9. Not devastating but after the Intrade fiasco

I'm wondering if he's getting gamed.

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Response to aletier_v (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:45 AM

23. Nate Silver is gaming Obama?

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:13 AM

6. I really wish there was a way to filter out certain words on DU...

I'd totally avoid "Nate Silver" and "538".

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:46 AM

25. Jesus Christ, yes.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:16 AM

7. Silver wrote about volatility recently

 

For those that didn't see it I'd recommend reading it. I don't classify this drop as anything but noise, however. Stiill it's worth a read as we head into the final stretch.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:20 AM

10. Nate said that Intrade is an outlier, btw

It has lower numbers for Obama than most of the other betting markets.

But he said it is still a decent predictor overall.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:21 AM

11. Things will...

smooth out by the end of the week.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:21 AM

12. There was one poll that was posted earlier TIPP (or whatever it is called)

that showed the President dropping but Romney gaining. They said Romney was gaining with working class and another group. I don't think Nate uses that one is his model though.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:23 AM

13. That's the November 6th Forecast...if you change it to the Nowcast

That has the President at 70.6% vs. 29.4% for Romnesia.

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Response to politicaljack78 (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:25 AM

14. Anybody know what he changes...

...in his Nov 6 forecast vs. his Nowcast?

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Response to DrToast (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:36 AM

17. I'm not certain but I have got to get to bed for work tomorrow. check out the

methodology link or email the guy, I'm sure he'd love to explain it to you.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

nrsilver@gmail.com

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Response to politicaljack78 (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:30 AM

15. Thank you for posting that info. nt

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:37 AM

18. It's my pleasure. Have an awesome night. n/t

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:34 AM

16. 70.6% in the now cast

I don't think the President has gone down in Nate's odds. The Nov. 6 cast is always slightly lower, I'm guessing because Silver accounts a bit for unforeseen events.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #16)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:43 AM

19. I think it's lower...

...because Nate assumes that polls always tighten over the closing weeks of a campaign. Of course, if that closing already took place (and was misinterpreted as part of the "first debate bounce"), it might not happen after all.

Personally, I was expecting a drop in the odds after some of the lousy national polls this morning. I note that Sam Wang, whose system considers only state polling, held steady for the day.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:45 AM

20. I think, but can't check due to being over my 10 articles

that the now cast is poll only and the Nov 6 cast includes lots of things such as the stock market. The market went down today, fairly far, so that might explain a drop in the Nov 6 cast.

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Response to dsc (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:25 AM

27. There are ways around the limit.

Googling the title of the article is one way that has worked for me.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:50 AM

26. If you follow polls Nate ain't sayin a damn thing

you don't already know. He doesn't have any special insight. If the polls average out a little lower today then guess what, his numbers will be lower. Magic I know.

Why is it people all of a sudden forget or ignore all the hints from the campaign and inside sources and get distracted by these polls and pollwatchers is beyond me. The campaign has come out multiple times saying the polls are not capturing what they are seeing on the ground and the early votes and inside info like Cook Report back it up.

Guess what. OH + NV = Game over for Romney

Guess what two states Obama has a lock on right now.

Nate isn't going to tell you that.

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