538's latest re-elect odds: 68.1%

This is why this thing is not in the bag yet.

It's a close race.

Take nothing for granted and watch out for Republican vote theft at all times.

The polling was not so hot today. The SurveyUSA Ohio poll probably saved the forecast from going to something like 65, 66%. I also think the percentage went down a little because of the stock market selloff. 68.1% is still better than 2/3.

your own tail. Nate's numbers are based on the polls you spend time slapping on the board thread after thread, so why then look at Nate and be surprised. THis makes no sense why people are doing this. Like he's going to tell you something you don't already know.

And it IS in the bag. I swear a lot of Dems have amnesia: forget everything you read from inside the campaign that's hinting at the real state of the race, only to get immediately distracted by polls and then get uncertain again until the next piece of inside info and...

They probably have Romnesia. The president did say it's contagious.

I can't see any reason why.

Rasmussen and PPP both showed a two-point drop, a couple of others that were in Obama's favor tightened, and he didn't really gain in any. As I wrote before, Sam Wang at PEC, whose model uses only state, not national, polls, showed no drop yesterday.

I was just going to bed, all relaxed, now I wish i hadn't logged back into DU.

I'm wondering if he's getting gamed.

I'd totally avoid "Nate Silver" and "538".

For those that didn't see it I'd recommend reading it. I don't classify this drop as anything but noise, however. Stiill it's worth a read as we head into the final stretch.

It has lower numbers for Obama than most of the other betting markets.

But he said it is still a decent predictor overall.

smooth out by the end of the week.

that showed the President dropping but Romney gaining. They said Romney was gaining with working class and another group. I don't think Nate uses that one is his model though.

That has the President at 70.6% vs. 29.4% for Romnesia.

...in his Nov 6 forecast vs. his Nowcast?

methodology link or email the guy, I'm sure he'd love to explain it to you.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

nrsilver@gmail.com

I don't think the President has gone down in Nate's odds. The Nov. 6 cast is always slightly lower, I'm guessing because Silver accounts a bit for unforeseen events.

...because Nate assumes that polls always tighten over the closing weeks of a campaign. Of course, if that closing already took place (and was misinterpreted as part of the "first debate bounce"), it might not happen after all.

Personally, I was expecting a drop in the odds after some of the lousy national polls this morning. I note that Sam Wang, whose system considers only state polling, held steady for the day.

that the now cast is poll only and the Nov 6 cast includes lots of things such as the stock market. The market went down today, fairly far, so that might explain a drop in the Nov 6 cast.

Googling the title of the article is one way that has worked for me.

you don't already know. He doesn't have any special insight. If the polls average out a little lower today then guess what, his numbers will be lower. Magic I know.

Why is it people all of a sudden forget or ignore all the hints from the campaign and inside sources and get distracted by these polls and pollwatchers is beyond me. The campaign has come out multiple times saying the polls are not capturing what they are seeing on the ground and the early votes and inside info like Cook Report back it up.

Guess what. OH + NV = Game over for Romney

Guess what two states Obama has a lock on right now.

Nate isn't going to tell you that.