Why registered voter screens matter—they've been more accurate
The Romney camp bases their optimism on deadlocked national polling, and no doubt the Gallup outlier. Problem for them, of course, is that we don't have a national popular vote. We should. But we don't. And the Democrats continue to maintain real leads in states that matter—both in the polling and in the early vote.
But there's another factor—much of that deadlocked national polling is among likely voters. Among registered voters, most of those polls gives President Barack Obama decent advantages. Thus, the operating theory is that a significant portion of Democrats will sit out the race because of a lack of intensity.
So for example, the latest NBC/WSJ poll yesterday had the presidential race deadlocked 47-47 among likely voters, but gave Obama a comfortable 49-44 lead among registered voters.
Different pollsters have different ways to filter out those they deem unlikely to vote. But bottom line, the registered voter screens have historically been more accurate.
So let's keep up our strong GOTV. Leave nothing on the road. Sign up with our partners at Worker's Voice to help get out the vote, no matter where you live. Seriously. Do it. Unless you're already doing GOTV for someone, click that link and plug yourself in.