2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOn what planet is CNN?
They just posted a breaking news in my inbox:
Debate viewers split 48% for President Obama and 40% for GOP challenger Mitt Romney in the poll, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
I watched their coverage. The president clearly dominated.
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)Melissa G
(10,170 posts)Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)Given the margin of error it is equally likely that Obama won by 11% or 12% as it is that he won by 3% to 4%. In either case Romney clearly lost.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)whirlygigspin
(3,803 posts)since they expect republicans to 'steal' 8% of the vote, an 8% lead by Obama means a tie; is it not?
tell me i'm wrong
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)but I've watched too many elections where that was the case. Obama I'm sure won by a much bigger margin than was reported.
center rising
(971 posts)CNN still would have called it close.
onenote
(42,609 posts)Its not a poll of registered or even likely voters. Its a poll of debate watchers and more repubs watch the debates than Democrats.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)Melissa G
(10,170 posts)and yet it's still 'close'. Even their CNN repub spin folks gave the race to Obama on points.
zaj
(3,433 posts)"... but we will try to use it to predict anyway."
/horrible media
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)TPaine7
(4,286 posts)I've been seeing that for a while now.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)Melissa G
(10,170 posts)my 92 year old mother in law to watch these debates, so I will have to take your word on that. Sorry to see anyone want to follow Faux news.
Daniel138
(47 posts)Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)YayArea
(71 posts)avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)dollars keep coming into their coffers.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)And perpetuates the myth of 'cougars' for McCain in 2008.
They're useless as a media source, but they're dangerous to US politics.
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)rightsideout
(978 posts)Even with their fancy election gizmos, I can't watch them.
LuckyStrykes
(115 posts)ailsagirl
(22,887 posts)YayArea
(71 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)im1013
(633 posts)Says Obama = 73%, Romney = 27%
demvoter4life
(15 posts)Poll shows Obama won the debate, but when you look inside the numbers People are more likely to vote the same(or lean romney) even at a +4 Dem sample. insignificant one point, But every focus Group showed most people think obama won, yet most people said they went from "I dont know" to Im Definitly leaning Romney Why? I would say its just a set up for news ratings, but some of my "uninformed friends" said Romney was more professional and Obama stuttered, and They said its time for a change. I will talk there ear off untill they vote for Obama.
per CNN
Half of those questioned say that the debate did not affect how they would vote, with 25% saying they are more likely to vote for Romney and 24% saying they are more likely to cast a ballot for Obama.
The sample of debate-watchers in the poll was 34% Democratic and 30% Republican.
Please start working, calling and GOTV. I am a member of other pro Democratic Forums and everyone is hard at work, with the we are behind attitude. It seems everyone here thinks its in the bag. Donate to the Cause instead of celebrating a knockout game ending debate, when in reality most people say he won, but did not sway. In Fact they may have went the other way.
and now PPP shows 1% switch along with CNN?
PPP post-debate poll of swing states: 53% say Obama won, 42% say Romney won, 38% say they are more likely to vote Romney after watching, 37% say they are more likely to vote for Obama (publicpolicypolling.com)
and Just like Gallop swing state polling showed.... Obama way up in blue states Losing battleground states...this is coming from the ABC Poll One of the best polls available per nate silver.
In the seven states designated as toss-ups by The Washington Post plus Ohio, its Romney 52 percent to Obamas 46. That six-point margin is not a statistically significant edge given the sample size, but a reversal from where things have been, paralleling shifts in state polling over the past few weeks. The overall national horse-race is the same as it was in early September because Obama now hits 60 percent of the vote in solidly or leaning Democratic states. Romney clears 57 percent in solidly or leaning Republican states about where he has been.
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)and your info is faulty.
Obama is winning undecideds
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251166955
demvoter4life
(15 posts)on msnbc? did you see the PPP poll? CNN internals?
Look at the big picture not on one focus group.
Im sure your smarter then to look at one focus group.
I have a Degree in statistics. Electoral College win will NOT happen if one of the candidate is over 1.5% more then the other candidate. It just does not happen. This talk of Firewall is nonsense. Unless the Margin of victory is within around 1.5% or less it will not happen. The overflow of the electorate is to great. To point to one item of information is like taking the gallop poll serious. Don't gloat and talk about airbrush spraying nonsense, make use of your time and make phone calls or donate.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)One) walking through the door and yelling at people is not a good way to start out, here.
Two) walking through the door and yelling at people that THEY MUST ACCEPT EXACTLY HOW HORRIBLY DIRE THE SITUATION IS is a good way to get branded what is known in the vernacular as a concern troll, and booted by MIRT, our friendly Malicious Intruder Removal Team.
Three) the "Big Picture" is much as it has been all year- i.e. slightly better for Obama than it is for Rommey. Obama is ahead. Yes, the race is tightening, and by all means we should not be complacent. But we have good reason to be optimistic. I'd much rather be our team, than theirs, right now. For anyone, like you for instance, who is clearly and genuinely committed to a decisive Democratic victory this election, a good course of action at DU would be to stay focused and energetic but certainly we have no reason to panic. They should be panicking, and I think they are- they're staring down the prospect of losing the WH again, failing to retake the Senate, and who knows, maybe even losing the House.
So we're feeling pretty positive, over here. As I'm sure you are, too, even as I do believe your exhortations come from a place of wanting to motivate folks to action.
Four) to be taken seriously, you might want to double-check your spelling, degree in statistics notwithstanding.
demvoter4life
(15 posts)I have asbergers syndrome so my thoughts dont come out or sound right this will be my last post but here me out and then i wont post anymore.
I wanted to join another DEMOCRATIC forum, but some here are just plain Delusional. Obama will win in a landslide? Be realistic. You guys can sit here pat each other on the back and make conspiracy theories about sweat on Romney's head. You can also conclude I am a Idiot because of typing errors because I was typing to many things at once and my communication skills are not like most peoples. I will Continue to Help in each state that Is needed. Colorado Latino Voters who I will Continue to call especially. There are more and more each week saying they are registered but not voting because they dont like either candidate. and The Breakdown in CO is about 59% Obama 34% Romney. Less then Half of those eligible are registered, and half of them plan on not voting. that leaves 25% of CO Latino Population voting 59% to 34% That is not going to overcome Heavily Republican Areas in Colorado Springs, Douglas county and Arapahoe county. The Fact is Obama is losing CO by 2 points. Nevada is not even a battleground, the rural areas are just as conservative as Utah, but its only 30% of the state. Obama will win NV buy more then 7. Wisconsin again obama will win. NH Obama. Iowa is Close early voting means nothing and there are 10,000 more registered Republicans Then Democrats, but Non aligned voters break heavily for Obama again Close but Obama will win by 4+
Why is Colorado So Important? If Romney wins OH (he will win FL, VA, NC) he needs another state. It wont be WI, NV, NH or IOWA,(iowa is very close Obama will just win it by a hair) CO however is leaning Romney. OH and CO means Romney wins. The big three are not close and are all more R trending then the nation as a whole. Block CO and and Obama can lose OH. Right now OH is even. Young voters are not registering like in 2008, and the Larger heavily democratic counties cuyahoga, Lucas, Summit, Frankin have decreased registration and population in general. Re-weighting of the polls has to be constantly re-done to show 2008 models, but young and ethnic groups are not going to show up like in 2008. The Elderly Grumpy conservative people in western Ohio hang up and don't take the polls, they will however vote.
CO and OH and its over. and Ohio is about Obama + 0.25 percent one quarter of one percent. and CO will go Romney unless a massive GOTV is done especially in high latino areas. But Dont listen to anything I say that its a coin toss 50/50. You may carry on and post about Big Bird, binders of women,. sweaty romney, ect. and I wont post here anymore (thank God right)? and Ill donate cash and get out the Vote in CO. Obama campaign is way behind Romney's in cash, he will need more to bring CO. Dont listen to me, talk about Late Breaking Headline October surprise's. No I am not a pollster I do have statistics degree, and I do have asbergers syndrome so my thoughts come out wrong although I am intelligent I probally sound like a blabbering idot while typing. I know Bullshit Troll Bullshit Obama is winning by 12 points. I hate you.
Ill stop back just after election day(I wont post) just to show you my numbers are right
AZ is close and latino voters are registered and ready to go. and No polls have him close? not true something is wrong there....Romney does not have a "secret state" like that No MI or PA will not go red. Im not saying AZ will turn but its close. Romney has a inside shot at maine congressional district 2. It was redistricting that caused this making it somewhat closer it was already more conservatve and rural then district 1.
NH Obama +1.1 to 1.8%
PA Obama +5.1 to 6.5%
FL Romney +2.0 to 2.9%
NC Romney +3.5 to 4.1%
MI Obama +7.7 to 8.5%
WI Obama +1.3 to 1.9%
IA Obama +0.4 to 1%
Va Romney + 0.9 to 1.3%
NV Obama +6 to +6.7
CO Romney +2 to 2.5
AR Romney +1.9 to 2.9%
ME2 Obama +2.5 to 3.1
NE2 Romney +4.6 to 5.3
OHIO Obama +0.6 to Romney +0.45
Have Fun fellow Democrats. In the election of Our continued administration Obama and Biden!
and also picking on me.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Although I can turn on the sarcasm if I need to.
tkmorris
(11,138 posts)They should have their certification pulled. For Chrissake dude, proofread what you post, especially if you are going to claim some kind of educational superiority.
Ell09
(100 posts)I try to watch quite a bit of CNN on debate nights for two reasons
1. My mother watches CNN and politics is something we can talk about together. It's easier to have in depth conversations about the debates/coverage with her (which I enjoy doing) if we've watched the same network.
2. I don't want to hear just from my side. I like switching to MSNBC to see some of their coverage, but I know they are on "my" sy side. I wan to hear what a network that tries to appeal to both sides of the aisle has to say as I think that's a better gauge for where the country is.
CNN was calling this a "horse race" when President Obama was significantly ahead in the electoral college. Prior to the first debate, John King (I believe) was actually trying to change the mind of their electoral college guy who was pointing out the truth (at that time): that Romney was way behind in the electoral college. Almost everyone on their panel was talking about a horse race that night and trying to play up the narrative that the race was close (when it wasn't). When the debate was over, they went in to full shill mode for Romney in declaring him the victor and gushing about his performance. The poll they released that showed a dominant win for Romney made no mention of what was almost assuredly a very Republican skewed sample.
I would have had no issue with how they covered debate one (except for their use of a republican skewed poll) if the following things did not occur:
VP Debate: Wolf Blitzer declares the debate a "draw" in the first sentence uttered on CNN post debate. Joe Biden DESTROYS Paul Ryan on foreign policy ( I though the clearest difference in the debate) and within the first few minutes CNN claims that one of the good things from Ryan was that he "held his own" on foreign policy. The panel talks about Biden's demeanor in a way that they do not about Romney.
2nd Presidential debate: Acknowledge Obama wins their Republican skewed poll, but then spend an hour or more talking about other questions asked to those who were polled like "who would best handle the economy?". Romney wins all of these questions...BECAUSE THE SAMPLE WAS R+8!!!! Blitzer mentions the distorted sample frequently, but when the panel talks about the results, they act like they are meaningful and a positive for Romney on a night where Obama actually won the debate.
3rd Presidential debate: Don't declare Obama a decisive winner immediately, publish ANOTHER skewed poll (how hard is it to weight a sample) that shows Obama as a 48-40 winner, but don't put it in to context how impressive that number is when more R's are sampled. Candy Crowley says Mitt was like a doctor "first do no harm" tonight and the panel quickly shifts to making excuses for Romney or praising him for a smart strategy. Their entire coverage tonight was in stark contrast to how they covered Romney after his clear win in debate number one. They used their BS poll to claim that those polled saw Romney as fit to be commander in chief at a similar rate to those who viewed Obama as fit. Once again, they used a skewed poll to push a theme that was not consistent with what we saw tonight.
I could rant about CNN all night, but I've been extremely disappointed with their coverage. I wish their was one network that was not biased towards either side and only reported the facts. At best CNN wants this race to be as close as possible and caters their coverage to attempt to achieve that goal, at worst they are no better than Faux Newz...and the truth is probably somewhere in between.
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)There is no news anymore... only spin.
Jack Sprat
(2,500 posts)They want some of that hillbilly viewership Faux has always dominated.
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)budkin
(6,699 posts)Gloria Borger was even tearing him up.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)I didn't get to see her commentary.
Usually she is pro-Romney from what I can tell, including in her documentary on him where she tried to white-wash the fact that Romney was hiding out in France during the Vietnam War.
clearly was trying to give it to BO, but was drown out by the collective effort to call it even while also conceeding/trying to tamp down a BO victory with the same line they used after Biden/Ryan and Obama/Romney II, "not sure it changes things much ..."
Funny little thing where they broke off on the women's vote, Borger clearly favored BO while the rest of them, all men, babbled about how they throught Romney did what he had to do in picking up female support.
budkin
(6,699 posts)And just glaring at his stupidity.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)just1voice
(1,362 posts)Here's the definition of propaganda at wikipedia, I suggest that people read it all the time because it's blatantly clear that CNN and the rest of the MSMedia is the very definition of propaganda. Replace "propaganda" with "CNN" and see what you think:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda
---Propaganda is a form of communication that is aimed at influencing the attitude of a community toward some cause or position by presenting only one side of an argument. Propaganda is usually repeated and dispersed over a wide variety of media in order to create the chosen result in audience attitudes.
As opposed to impartially providing information, propaganda, in its most basic sense, presents information primarily to influence an audience. Propaganda often presents facts selectively (thus possibly lying by omission) to encourage a particular synthesis, or uses loaded messages to produce an emotional rather than rational response to the information presented. The desired result is a change of the attitude toward the subject in the target audience to further a political or religious agenda. Propaganda can be used as a form of political warfare.---
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)At some point in time, CNN decided it was in its best corporate interest to become a pale imitation of Fox News. So, it stacks its deck with analysts/moderators who are more subtle than the maniacs on Fox and claims neutrality.
TV news is now a complete wasteland. I avoid it like the plague.