HRC's Penn. lead shrivels/shrinks from 34% to 6%!

[Divernan]

It's the Klassic Klinton pattern - going down at an increasing rate of speed! The margin of error on this last poll is 4.3%, so the poll is less than 2 points away from putting a Bernie win within the margin of error. As per the other link below, last October, Hill was 34 points ahead; in February, down to 21 points ahead - now early April - 6 points. With another 3 weeks until the PA primary, it's looking great for Bernie! And note that in Pennsylvania, Sanders beats Trump by 8 points; beats Cruz by twelve points; while Clinton ties w/ Cruz, and only edges Trump out by 3 points. Not good enough, Hillary.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 50 – 44
percent among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters.
Only 7 percent of Republicans are undecided, but 27 percent of those who name a
candidate say they might change their mind by April 26. Democrats have similar numbers, 6
percent undecided and 22 percent who might change their mind.
In head-to-head general election matchups:
 Kasich buries Clinton 51 – 35 percent;
 Kasich tops Sanders 46 – 40 percent;
 Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
 Clinton ties Cruz 43 – 43 percent;
 Sanders tops Trump 48 – 40 percent;
 Sanders beats Cruz 46 – 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf

From March 30 – April 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,737 Pennsylvania voters
with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 578 likely Republican
primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points and 514 likely Democratic
primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land
lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia,
Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/pennsylvania-democratic/

Apr. 2-3 Harper Polling Clinton +22

Mar. 14-20 Franklin & Marshall College Clinton +25

Mar. 1-2 Harper Polling Clinton +30

Feb. 13-21 Franklin & Marshall College Clinton +21

Feb. 11-16 Robert Morris University Clinton +7

Jan. 22-23 Harper Polling Clinton +27

Jan. 18-23 Franklin & Marshall College Clinton +17

Oct. 19-25 Franklin & Marshall College Clinton +34

Oct. 10-15 Robert Morris University Clinton +27

Oct. 8-11 Public Policy Polling Clinton +18

[Donkees]

1. "It's the Klassic Klinton pattern" I read that as Klingon :)

[Divernan]

2. Quinnipiac poll rated the gold standard among polls.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

Frequently cited by journalists, public officials and researchers, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll regularly surveys residents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and nationwide about political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern, such as schools, taxes, transportation, municipal services and the environment.

Known for its exactness and thoroughness, the Quinnipiac poll is featured regularly in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and on national network news broadcasts. In 2010, respected public opinion polling analyst Nate Silver ranked the Quinnipiac University poll as most accurate among major polls conducting surveys in two states or more. The Quinnipiac poll was also called "the standout performer" by City and State for the most accurate prediction in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor in 2013.

The Asbury Park Press wrote, "The Quinnipiac University Poll is considered the gold standard in the business, frequently lauded by USA Today and other national media organizations for its information and accuracy."

For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. The polls are conducted at the Polling Institute on West Woods Road, close to the Mount Carmel and York Hill Campuses.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

[Jarqui]

3. Kasich +16 over Clinton in PA - a key battleground state ...

She ties Cruz, only +3 over Trump

PA is not showing Hillary much love

[HerbChestnut]

4. Quick note on margins of error...

The MoE applies to *both* candidates. In other words Hillary Clinton has 50% +/- 4.3, and Bernie has 44% +/- 4.3. That puts him within the MoE, making this poll a statistical tie.

[Divernan]

5. Very good point.