'Ugh' is right: Chance of Split Electoral, Popular Vote Very Real

[babylonsister]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/19/chance_of_split_electoral_popular_vote_very_real.html

Chance of Split Electoral, Popular Vote Very Real

Charlie Cook: "I am now reconciled to the fact that this will be a race to the wire. I am watching Ohio and a handful of other swing states that are right at, or near, the 270-electoral-vote tipping point. In the end, the odds still favor the popular and electoral vote heading in the same direction, but the chances of a split like the one in 2000 are very real, along with the distinct possibility of ambiguity and vote-counting issues once again putting the outcome in question. Ugh."

[warrior1]

1. No.

The POTUS is going to win in a landslide.

[MassedPole]

2. I hope that doesnt happen.

A Romeny,Biden presidency would he awful.

Nothing would get done.

[babylonsister]

6. I don't think you have to worry about a Romeney (sic), Biden presidency. nt

[NYC Liberal]

12. If there's a 269-269 tie then that's what would happen.

It's not completely inconceivable.

[babylonsister]

15. Then I stand corrected; I never knew that. Has it ever happened, and

could Biden turn it down? I can't even imagine...

[boxman15]

17. He could convince Senate Democrats to vote for someone else.

A 269-269 tie would almost certainly result in a President Romney and a Vice President Biden though.

[Shrek]

36. He wouldn't do that

The 12th amendment specifies that the Senate would select from the top two vice-presidential candidates.

There's no way Biden would attempt to convince anyone to vote for Ryan.

[NYC Liberal]

26. Yes, in 1800. This was before the current system.

In the original electoral college system, there was no separate voting for vice president. Electors cast two votes each. The person with the most votes became president and the person with the second most became VP.

Jefferson and Aaron Burr both received the same number of votes so the election was decided by the House (it took something like 40 ballots).

After that they changed the system so electors cast one vote for president and another specifically for VP. In a tie, the House chooses from the top 3 candidates for president and the Senate chooses from the top 2 for VP.

So Biden could simply ask senators to not vote for him, or he could resign immediately after taking office.

The freakier scenario? A candidate can lose both the electoral vote AND the popular vote, and still win. Andrew Jackson won the popular vote and won more electoral votes than Adams in 1824, but neither one won a majority of electoral votes. So the election was decided by the House, which chose Adams -- the loser of the electoral and popular vote.

[Grown2Hate]

29. Why would Biden turn it down though? Just be a thorn in Rmoney's side the whole time...

[NYC Liberal]

30. Not saying he would (cause I agree with you) ... just that he *could*

[FBaggins]

31. Not just to be a thorn in his side.

The VP still breaks Senate ties.

[demlion]

24. "Nothing" is not the word. More HELL simply because Biden would nail Romenys arse to the wall DAILY

[Skee]

3. - What "Vote" - ?

When it involves unreliable, unsecured electronics
of unknown design, build, programming, or operation,
it isn't really voting.

[progressivebydesign]

4. Who cares if it's a "split" electoral and popular??? Only one that matters is Electoral College.

It's NOT a tie scenario in the Electoral College, it means that someone could win the EC and lose the popular, because of the conservative fools in the South.

[SingleSeatBiggerMeat]

5. This Is Such Nonsense.

First of all, there is no money/ratings/interest to be had in "___ is going to win comfortably/big/in a landslide."

Second, even if Taligoobers come out by the truckload to vote (free bbq!), the electoral college will so strong for Obama, that it won't matter.

This won't be 2000. Not even close.

[Blaukraut]

7. President Obama will win both. Smaller margins than that gaudy landslide last time, but he'll win nt

[smorkingapple]

8. We own the most populous states. Our smaller margins there > Romney's larger margins in small states

a 10 point margin in California is better than a 20 point margin in MS and AL in terms of raw vote count. Don't have time to do the raw math but i'm sure you can verify this using the old results..

[brooklynite]

9. The best outcome would be Obama winning the EV and losing the Popular Vote...

The Tea Party would be demanding a Constitutional Amendment to eliminate the Electoral College within 24 hours.

[Pab Sungenis]

10. No. Obama losing the popular vote

would probably deny a coattail effect in Congress. We need to hold the Senate and retake the House.

[brooklynite]

23. The Senate we have; the House we won't get...

This is election isn't ever going to be big enough enough to sweep in a House Majority.

[Jennicut]

11. I will take what I can get but an Electoral win is very unlikely.

Most of the time the popular vote simply follows what the electoral college shows. In 2000, if the votes were really fairly recounted, Gore would have won both the EC and the popular vote. By Bush "winning" it created the false electoral college win. The last ec wins were in 1824, 1876, and 1888.
I guess it all depends on how much the Romney red states bump up his support. How much turnout will there be in those states? Turnout in very blue states could matter a lot too.

[PAMod]

33. I love seeing other history buffs on here - history, of course, is our greatest teacher...

I will say though, if you aren't going to count 2000 as an EC election (I wouldn't either, by the way, for the same reasons you cite) then 1876 doesn't count either.

That one was stolen in broad daylight, and Tilden didn't want to tear the country apart by pointing out the obvious, so he backed off.

[Jennicut]

34. Good point.

So EC wins happened twice when there was a very small population and much less states. I just don't see it happening though the media keeps pushing it.

[marlakay]

13. It's so hard to believe more people will vote for him

People would rather have a liar than a good decent family man....I just don't get it.

They must be scared of obamacare that's all I can think of or fox has brainwashed them....

[budkin]

14. Who cares as long as Romney is not elected

Because we're in a world of hurt if he is.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Sure it could happen ... but it won't.

Every election cycle they talk about it. But let's be honest, the odds of this happening are very, very, very small. I think Obama has a better shot of losing outright than losing the popular vote and winning the EC.

[abumbyanyothername]

19. According to 538

Obama has a 30% chance of losing the EC (including almost 2% chance of winning the popular vote and losing EC).

There is a 5.2% chance that Romney wins the popular vote but loses the EC.

Working with the sims that the model is spitting out today.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Well there you go. Straight from the horse's mouth! haha

[deutsey]

18. If it does I sure hope we fight like hell against another theft n/t

[TroyD]

20. I hope Obama wins BOTH

Otherwise it would be an embarrassment that would cause the Republicans to question his legitimacy as President even more than they did in the First Term.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

27. I don't really care if it happens

particularly if it comes out that way simply because more people hate him in the south than love him in the rest of the country. And Republicans are going to question his "legitimacy" no matter how big he wins. 6 points PV and 300+ EV certainly didn't change anything for them in 2008 and/or weaken their "resolve" to see him (America) fail. I have a feeling that a lot of the right-wing teeth-gnashing over "polls" in this election are already setting the stage for attacks on his legitimacy for the next four years.

[Cosmocat]

32. It will be bad either way

But, absolutely, they will REALLY have something to hang on to if he were not to get the popular vote.

I have always felt the margins would be lower than 08, and again, they are going to be raging jerkoffs and find a rationale for it, regardless.

But, BO needs a clear popular vote split of at least 51 to 48, and I think he has to get above 300 EVs to mute it a good bit.

Florida was looking promising for a while, but somehow Romney seems to have taken hold of it barely.

It would be REAL nice if BO can win his core swing states and get Fl.

[Tenleytown]

22. nate silver

gives it 5% chance that Mittens wins the PV and loses the EC to the President.

it's not going to happen. He should put this thing away once and for all at the last debate!

[Rosco T.]

25. if it does happen, then you'll see the Electoral Collage go away..

.. with the effort being lead by the GOPigs.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

28. Then the next time a Democrat wins the PV they'll want it changed back again

I used to wonder if it might be best to go to a PV electoral system but I've come to realize that the EV is probably the best way to go. There are plenty of other electoral reforms I'd like to eventually see, however.

[DCBob]

35. Real but unlikely..

however, probably more likely this year than most years given the polarization of many states especially the south.