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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:13 PM

Do the state of the polls (in general) seem just surreal to anyone else?

I mean, you've got to be kidding me. After four years of constant right wing obstruction - yet, despite that, a real recovery with real improvements in the numbers...then, after the bizarre, someone-needs-to-run mess of the Republican circus called the primaries, the disaster of Mitt European trip (the endless MittShambles), the 47% video - the weekly gaffes, the snoozer of a convention (starring the indescribable rant at a chair), You People, dogs on a car, windows on a plane...and then a high energy Dem convention which pushed the good guys to an overwhelming forecast for victory......

******one 90 minute debate that consisted of the worst debate moderation in history and an unprecedented lie-fest with an admittedly lower energy than optimal president (though with no lies and no gaffes) - think of that - 90 minutes******

And the numbers tank something far less certain - at a rate far too rapid and deep for just that 90 minutes....

followed by an asskicking of Ryan by Biden, and then another asskicking of Mitt by the president.....

And the numbers hardly move from the "nearly tied" zone.

It just makes no sense....surreal is actually way too mild and ineffective a word for it...are there that many Americans with their heads up their ass? So easily fooled?

And this isn't being a concern troll - I still believe president Obama will be reelected...but, really, it should just not, not be this close - that is what is utterly surreal to me.

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Reply Do the state of the polls (in general) seem just surreal to anyone else? (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 OP
RichGirl Oct 2012 #1
LonePirate Oct 2012 #8
jaysunb Oct 2012 #9
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #23
Warpy Oct 2012 #2
liberalmuse Oct 2012 #27
Nay Oct 2012 #3
Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #16
cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #4
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #5
Ninga Oct 2012 #6
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #7
ProfessionalLeftist Oct 2012 #10
DHelix Oct 2012 #11
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #12
politicman Oct 2012 #13
jeff47 Oct 2012 #14
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #15
jeff47 Oct 2012 #22
GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #17
GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #18
Prophet 451 Oct 2012 #19
quaker bill Oct 2012 #20
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #24
quaker bill Oct 2012 #29
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #30
quaker bill Oct 2012 #31
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #33
quaker bill Oct 2012 #35
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #39
bemildred Oct 2012 #21
wordpix Oct 2012 #25
rurallib Oct 2012 #26
Flashmann Oct 2012 #28
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #32
tallahasseedem Oct 2012 #34
lunatica Oct 2012 #36
RedSpartan Oct 2012 #37
buckyblue Oct 2012 #38
Marthe48 Oct 2012 #40
neverforget Oct 2012 #41
LisaL Oct 2012 #42
monkeyofstick Oct 2012 #43
uppityperson Oct 2012 #44

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:18 PM

1. The polls seem surreal when Mitt is up.

I'm not being facetious....I seriously don't understand how anybody could support him. The only ones I understand, even though it is vile, are the people who support him because he's white....aside from that, I just don't get it.

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Response to RichGirl (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:28 PM

8. Robme's supporters have also been fed four years of lies which they believe without question

Their television channel, their radio stations, their elected officials, their religious leaders and others have all been spewing the same filth and propaganda since November 2008 and earlier. It is impossible to reach these people with the truth when they are so entrenched in their false reality.

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Response to RichGirl (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:34 PM

9. My...what an astute observation.

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Response to RichGirl (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 09:27 AM

23. I have A LOT of republican friends

and they are all anxious about it, and feeling confident.

I have said this multiple times.

You know I like BO a lot. I get that people might not like him like I do. I can kind of get that people don't like him. I can't get how anyone can vote for Mitt Romney, he is the most pathetic, say anything to anyone at any time presidential candidate we have seen in our lives.

Not once has anyone even tried to defend Romney.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:19 PM

2. I stop bothering a month before the election

because that's when partisan polls and push polls are being conducted and those heavily skew their results one way or the other.

By this point in the season, the only poll that will matter is the one that is tabulated the night of November 6.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 09:52 AM

27. Smart. A lot of it is mental.

And you can believe both sides know this, and the conservatives are gladly going to try to use this tactic to demoralize liberals so we just don't bother. THAT is how they try to win, by stealing the election before anyone has cast a vote. Everyone knows that there are stragglers who will vote for the perceived winner every time, so the tactic is trying to make your guy look like the winner, and get it close enough so dumping ballots in small counties or losing votes on a couple machines can make all the difference.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:19 PM

3. Oh, it's surreal to me, too. I feel like I'm on Stupid Planet. And then I realize all over again the

power of propaganda/advertising/religion over the emotions and reactions of WAAAAY too many people. As I've gotten older, I've realized that there are simply too many easily-manipulated people, and that progress is stymied by their very existence. It is an unsolvable dilemma.

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Response to Nay (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:51 PM

16. Obama's re-election will go some way to solving it.

A Romney win, which almost certainly guarantees 12 years of GOP rule, hits the reset switch. I don't think the USA ever comes back as a serious superpower from that; it becomes an odd bubble country.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:22 PM

5. The base cratered, the media sealed the narrative

that's what happened. Also, it was going to tighten regardless - and was tightening just before the first debate. So it was a 'perfect storm' (hate that phrase but) of conditions that worked against the president. I also believe that the GOP has been very smart about putting out enough crappy polls to keep the average down, regardless of Nate's confidence in his model.

In the end the president was prepared for this - the base wasn't.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:24 PM

6. I am so understanding your OP! I am a bundle of nerves, even though i am canvassing and

writing letters I am also working twice as hard at trying to surpress my anxiety and really do not
understand the poll garbage. Help!

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Response to Ninga (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:25 PM

7. for better or worse, I guess I am letting both my open book and bleeding heart show!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:54 PM

10. YES. Either someone is jacking with the numbers

to steal the election and/or manipulate the public and public opinion and/or this country is chock full of a LOT of media-inebriated STUPID. I suspect "all of the aforementioned" or some combination thereof.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:04 PM

11. The supposed "liberal" MSM did this - Horse race - Also, some guys like tough guys

We all felt it after the first debate somewhere within us. We knew the President was substantive but I think most people felt that he could have been sharper and more like he was in the second debate so Democratic enthusiasm dropped. But being the open-minded, rational, fair people that we are... we admitted these things online, to friends, to family and (if you're a journalist) on the air. Faux News NEVER would have admitted defeat no matter what. Remember, these guys somehow tried to spin the 47% comment into something that Romney should "own." Our own open-mindedness lead to basically a full week of MSM types going crazy and talking non-stop about what a game changer this was and how it was a historically bad debate, etc. That "story" dominated for about a week straight. And all this happened while the Right wingers were laying it on even more thick. For those who missed it, Romney's team were quick to cut together commercials of Romney blasting the President while Barack stared downward looking timid. That entire week cost Obama a ton of fence-sitting white guys (I'm a white guy and I know these types in my office). Everybody else stuck by Obama.

We're only a couple days removed from debate #2 and already the MSM seems bored by simply stating, "Obama won." That's the problem ultimately. The average everyday person wants to feel like they're experiencing something historic. In 2008 some center right types voted for Obama because of the whole "first black President" aspect. After the first debate, they felt that they had witnessed a historically bad turning point in a debate (even though it shouldn't have been). Black Americans are still supporting Obama largely the same. Hispanics are around the same if not stronger. Women seem to realize now what's at stake. I have to think he has more LGBT support than before. So, it's mostly white men (guys like me and people I went to school with) who turned toward Romney as some sort of alpha male they wish they could be after the debate. Obama did a great job, IMO, of winning those types back by putting on his own macho alpha display in the last debate. If Obama comes out with a similarly strong performance on Monday and can get Romney to crack or tear up like he did last time I think Obama will win some of those fickle white men back. Body language and eye contact will be huge. Obama can't afford to keep looking down again (even if he is writing notes) because Romney has a death stare from years of layoffs that comes off tough. Obama has to maintain that or better it. Make no mistake, these things shouldn't matter but when you're talking about people who aren't particularly political... they do. I'm convinced these men (mostly white because as I said all the other key demographics are still supporting Obama a great deal) judge a lot on body language and toughness.

When the Right Wingers are constantly whining about media bias our open-minded media almost feels obligated to overcompensate and make sure they're coming off balanced. CNN lately has essentially had 3.5 conservative types analyzing each debate with 2 liberals (and the ragin' cajun is past his prime and shouldn't be defending liberalism anymore anyway. He's no longer effective at it). They also want this to be a horse race. This is their superbowl. This is where they make the vast majority of this year's money and there's nothing better for them then a really close election.

You combine all these factors with the fact that some pollsters have probably been bought off at this point or promised things and now you have some pollsters employing shady tactics to try and rank voter enthusiasm and likelihood to vote and that's why you have a poll like Gallup's. They want people to feel like their vote won't count because there's the belief that Democrats can be easily shaken from showing up and voting. My hope... is that it will have the opposite effect. The Obama campaign has done such a good job of educating people on why Romney is a wolf in sheep's clothing that I feel Democrats and centrists everywhere starting to feel a little nervous (in a good way). We need to be fired up. We need people to get out and vote when we're talking about only a single % point or two separating wins from losses. This Gallup poll wreaks of not only being on the far end of the margin of error toward Romney, but also employing odd criteria to determine what a likely voter is that's out of touch with how many people on the Left will actually come out and vote on election day (or sooner).

We're up in the key swing states. Most polls haven't taken debate 2 into account yet fully so I'm still optimistic. Obama really needs another dominant alpha male performance like the last one though. Even without winning over some more white males he's still in great position to reach 270 but pulling in some more white guys who were starting to question his toughness will make his win that much more definitive.

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Response to DHelix (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:09 PM

12. Great, points all - thanks for this thoughtful response to my OP.

And I agree with everything you said.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:36 PM

13. polls suggest Obama leading

Why is everyone freaking out over these poll numbers?

People need to chill out and assess the race as it stands at the moment.

Firstly, 90% of all state polls released show Obama in the lead is some sort of capacity.

Some polls show him leading by 1-2 points, other polls show him leading by 4-5 points.

The thing to consider is that when a single poll shows Obama leading in a state by the bearest of margins 1-2 points, it can be interpreted as being in the margin of error BUT when you have many more polls showing this and even bigger leads, then that means that whatever lead is showing is most likely a stable lead and not subject to margin of error.

Some polls will be more favorable to Romney and some will be favorable to Obama, BUT when every single poll shows Obama with some sort of lead then you can pretty much be assured that Obama leads in the swing states.

As for that Gallup poll, well, its embarrassing that a polling firm such as gallup is making itself the laughing stock.

Gallup uses a 7 day average, because it says that it can more accurately predict the state of the race over such a period of time BUT what they dont say is that WHEN they have a completely out-of-field polling day outlier included in their average, then that skews the result for the whole seven day average.

Example, on one day Gallup including a sample in its average of having pluss 22 points for Romney in the south, So even if everyday of their average was back to normal, UNTIL that outlier day drops off the average then that average will continue to be skewed with that outlier day.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:37 PM

14. Keep in mind "tied" in a national poll means exactly nothing.

Winning 90% of the vote in Utah makes Mitt look good in a national poll. And in the election it means exactly the same as winning 51% of the vote in Utah.

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Response to jeff47 (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:48 PM

15. It isn't the value of the polls on a given day - it is how the rolling average moves over time.

Just a look at the 538 plot is illustrative of the point I was trying to make. If the big separation that Obama was enjoying was significant, then the relative "tie" is in a way just as significant, and mystifying, to me.

thanks for your comment, I do understand your point.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #15)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 09:10 AM

22. Actually, Nate talks about this today

538 mostly uses state polls in it's forcast. Because national polls aren't how we vote. National polls are weighted much, much less than state polls.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)


Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 12:59 AM

18. Yes, things are weird.

When I went to electoral-vote this morning, I saw that New Jersey had turned from dark blue to light blue. New Jersey!!

I guess we will just have to deal with the weirdness until election day.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 05:28 AM

19. "are there that many Americans with their heads up their ass?"

Yes, there are. And that's not to single out Americans, my own country (England) voted in the Tories last time and then was surprised when the Tories acted like Tories (i.e. stomping on those at the bottom for the benefit of those at the top). There's dumb fucks all over, in every country and they're outbreeding the smart people.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 06:56 AM

20. It does but

It was always reasonable for this race to be close. The economy is improving but is still not great. Citizens united opened the floodgates to massive corporate spending.

However, here is a question to ponder, remember how 6 weeks ago it was looking like a landslide, and all the big R money was thinking about heading down ticket? Then came debate 1 and the money froze at the top ballot line? The clock ticks and it is now too late to move the money down ticket in a meaningful way. Then comes debate 2.

I am thinking that a person is fully President with say 281 electoral votes. However I am also thinking a person is more fully President with 281 electoral votes and a House and Senate run by leaders in their party. A person is less fully President with 330 electoral votes and a House in the hands of the opposition. I may be giving this too much thought, but the concept of a head fake is interesting.

They never played with Ohio, check the news on all the campaign stops there, before the debates, after the debates, between the debates, Barack, Michelle, and the Big Dawg... Run the numbers and the path to 280+ is pretty easy with Ohio on the blue map.

The polling analysis I have read (and there is not alot of it) suggests that the House is easily in play and the Senate is pretty close to a lock. It is easy to believe that the dems did not want the mitt millions going down ticket, which probably would have happened if BHO thrashed Mitt at debate 1.

I am just say'n. Who knows?

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 09:32 AM

24. The house is a LONG shot

IF the first debate would not have turned out the way it did, they might have had a shot at the House.

But, the pull back has stemmed it.

Just spit balling, if they can PU 12 seats or so and get the R margin down to 30 or so, it will be about as much as we can expect.

The good news is somehow they want from a projection of very possibly losing the senate to actually picking up a couple to improve its margin a bit.

I think it is vital that BO wins, first out.

But, beyond that, a 280 to 260 win will allow the Rs and media to really negatively frame the win in a manner to justify the House doing absolutely nothing other than trying to impeach him for the next two years. It would harder, even though they will still do it, for them to be raging jerkoffs if it is closer to a 300 to 240 win.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 06:28 AM

29. I do not know what you have been reading

But I have been seeing numbers in the range of a turn of 37 to 49 seats, moving fairly independent of the top line. The dynamic in the Senate with the primaries picking far right candidates actually played far bigger in the House races, but mostly undercover because the MSM does not follow it. In quite a number of cases the dem ran unopposed and spent a few bucks before the R primary calling the tea party wackaloon they wanted to run against "too conservative" compared to his/her opponent. (basically a back handed campaign ad for them). In many cases it worked, and the dems got the opponent they wanted.

You can see the independence of movement here in the Senate analysis on 538 and elsewhere. Polls have tightened around the Presidential race while at the same time widening for the Senate.

The proposition I am making here is that just perhaps, at the critical moment, they intentionaly allowed the Presidential race to seem a bit closer than it ever really was, to keep the money focused on the top of the ticket, where they can spend an easy 100 million on negative ads and not move the polls because there is no concious person who has not heard a negative message about BHO perhaps 100 times already and kicking it up to 110 times will make no difference. On the other hand, busting that 100 million up into 2 million dollar slices could turn a number of House seats around. I think they think like that, I could be wrong.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #29)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 07:09 AM

30. Believe me

I HOPE that is the case.

But, all the 'reputable" poll people have the Dems getting anywhere between 6 to the low teams in house pick ups.

I saw nancy Pelosi on a show with Rachel maddow, I think a few weeks ago, and she basically said she thinks they have a good shot at getting the 25 to flip it, that she would like 35 to have a margin if they do, but that was highly unlikely.

I just saw a scatter plot graph someone where posted here yesterday about House seats in relation to presidential votes, and there are not a lot of R seats in districts that BO carried the year before.

Just seems a HARD slog.

I full well know who is running where in the Senate.

Again, the projections were the Rs had a shot at getting the senate, and now as the races have settled in, the Ds actually have a shot to get two or three, maybe end up at 54 give or take a seat or two.

Again, I WANT the House to flip, and I do believe the pundits always down play the Ds chances at anything positive, but I have not seen anything from any kind of actual pollster or viable analyst that indicates a 40 or more D pickup in the House.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #30)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 07:28 AM

31. It will be tough for sure

but near impossible if the money had shifted down ticket. I am pretty sure we will go +2 in FL, and we may go +3 or 4. They are not as well tied to the national race as usual.

The deal as I see it is that the Rs had already spent +/- 400 million on negative ads against President Obama, and were still behind. It is not moving the polls. The President had little to lose by baiting them to spend more and I am pretty sure his folks know this better than I. His team is really smart when it comes to the numbers. They absolutely knew a large pile of money was coming at them, might they have picked to lead it to the place where it would do the least damage? Perhaps so. It would be in character for this organization, look at what they did in 2008.

We will see.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #31)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:52 AM

33. i think they had a shot

before debate one.

It took over a month from the end of the conventions, with a boost halfway through with the 47% tape, for BO to build a 5 point national lead, give or take.

But it literally got chewed up the last two weeks since the first debate.

The trends seem clear that Romney's uptick has stopped, and it is pretty clear BO is rebounding.

But, the pattern is that BO builds his leads slowly.

IF nothing else breaks between now and then, I think he can get to about a 3 point national lead.

I just don't see that flipping the House.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #33)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:12 PM

35. While there is some correlation

these races are not that tightly linked. A very large margin at the top might help in some cases. My prediction is that you will be surprised by the result, and perhaps I will be too.

We will see in a bit more than 2 weeks.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #35)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:22 PM

39. yeah

I will gladly give you nod if it does work out.

Those asshats running the House is just one big, America destroying cluster fuck.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 08:50 AM

21. It's just more egregious.

Same old shit, but they are losing, so they are pushing it. Listen to the right-wing talking heads, it's like they are mainlining crack.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 09:46 AM

25. actually, the state of voter education is surreal

like the questioners at the debate who are still trying to figure out who to vote for. Unf-ingbelievable. Obviously, they can't bother watching, listening to and reading a variety of news sources to learn about the issues and candidates, even though these issues impact their own lives.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 09:50 AM

26. Worries me in that they can be used as a way to make election theft possible

if polls and reported results don't differ too much, there won't be much outcry.

Considering that Mittsy trails in most every demo except white males it makes me wonder just how he could possibly be tied.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 10:09 AM

28. really, it should just not, not be this close

I agree fully....Something about all of this has a real stench......

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Response to Flashmann (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:12 AM

32. Intellectually it shouldn't, but i get it

First it is tough for an incumbent with a less than booming economy.

Second, the 08 election, the Rs were really defeated over how putried Bush II was, and they really sort of were willing to take a beating. They VERY quickly rebounded when it happened, see the tea party and the absolutely surreal manner in which they took desperately needed health care reform and had this country actually believing it was an attack on the foundation of the country.

Third, the right has spent 4 years just BLASTING this country with their bizarre negative frames of Barrack Obama.

I like BO A LOT, and think he has done a great job. I think it is clear that Romney is the most craven, say anything to get elected candidate we have seen our lives. To US, 1 + 1 SHOULD equal 2, but people are people.

We are naturally cynical of our government, and with four years of the 'liberal" media carrying right wing water in ignoring the exceptionally good job this president has done and advancing the negative frames, it just has worn people down.

IMO, this is how Bush II won - frankly, the country was fatigued by these assholes throwing an 8 year hissy fit about Clinton, Bush II seemed harmless enough, and people voted for him to shut them up.

It got tough the last two weeks, but I have felt pretty good about the president winning reelection all along, but I was pretty sure the margins would be lower. That seems to be where this is headed now. We have seen Romney's big surge, short of something really major happening now, it SHOULD be a solid win, but not as big as 08.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:58 AM

34. Not really...

the electorate is just that stupid. I'm having major flashbacks to 2004 right now.

I hate to keep thinking it, but the President really screwed it up with the first debate. It gave the media the opening they were looking for and made Romney look electable. Horrible, horrible mistake.

The only thing we can do now is do our best to GOTV.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:15 PM

36. Yes, and so does this entire election season

I think we're seeing the effect of unlimited money for the campaigns and corporate 'free speech'. This really is the first testing ground for it. It it doesn't get repealed or revisited and shot down by the Supreme Court they will only learn from their mistakes and get much better at it.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:16 PM

37. I'll let George Carlin explain...

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:19 PM

38. Yes, but

 

Looking back at polls taken in recent Presidential elections: they all are 'strange.' They all seem off. They all seem weird.

I am going to vote with my daughter this year. Her first year voting. We are going to vote and so will the rest of America.

At this point I am tuning the polls out. No use killing myself everyday. I do think our President will win again.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 08:35 PM

40. My 89 y.o. Mother-in-law

is a Republican and idolized every Rep. Prez from Nixon to the Rez. She doesn't like Romney at all and hopes Obama will get re-elected. My head almost exploded when she said this.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:07 PM

41. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. Most don't pay any attention to

politics until now if at all.

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Response to neverforget (Reply #41)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:10 PM

42. Hopefully those are the ones who will stay home.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:22 PM

43. head up asses

I really get the Hebrew Jeebies when we talk about Romney ...

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Response to monkeyofstick (Reply #43)

Sun Oct 21, 2012, 02:47 PM

44. FWIW, the correct term is heebie jeebies, unless you are looking to be offensive.

I'd suggest editing your post unless you were looking to be offensive.

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