Note the RCP average is Romney by 0.7%

[Mutiny In Heaven]

Even with Gallup's 7 point frivolity, the average is a Romney lead of 0.7% - If you've a propensity to panic, keep in mid that polling averages were very good in 2008 (about 0.3% off the mark); Gallup were poor, wildly overestimating Obama in '08 and the GOP in '10.

My concern is that the perception of a Romney blow-out becomes more likely the more media folks slobber of Gallup, and they do that in spite of the firm's poor track record.

Of course, this isn't always the case. In 1992, they overdid Clinton by 6% (3 in '96) and we've seen plenty of mention of 2000's 'Halloween Horror' which saw Al Gore sagging to a 13% deficit. THOSE polls didn't get the sheep behind the dog.

I'm just saying chill out, load up with facts and know what to ignore.

[hrmjustin]

1. I was looking at twitter when the Gallup polls came out, and people did not believe the...

.... numbers.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

2. Well, good.

That is important, and don't let people forget it; do NOT let people become downhearted because of a single poll (with questionable methodology) gets the news heads pumped.

[octoberlib]

5. Same thing here

and one tweet was by a conservative columnist. Gallup has lost all credibility.

[Doctor Jack]

3. Its just one shitty poll

Honestly, what does it matter? Most other polls have Obama up by 1-3 points and one has Romney up by some insane amount? If one poll is way off compared to others, just ignore it, it isn't valid. Nice and simple.

I don't understand this need we have to argue with every poll. Obama is going to win. Who cares what Gallup's likely voter 7 day rolling average says?

[Mutiny In Heaven]

4. It matters because we don't want panic and we don't want people thinking voting no longer matters

Gallup have a terrible track record, but - and I heavily suspect there's a correlation here - the pundits love them. They showed sensational Bush leads in 2000, Bush by 8 this time in 2004 and Obama up by 11 in '08. They are at the bottom of the bargain bucket.

[AndyTiedye]

10. It Matters Because it is Gallop

Gallup is the name everybody knows. People believe them.
If Gallup says Rmoney is ahead or close on Election Day, they will be able to steal it. It's that simple.

[VirginiaTarheel]

6. why do progressives pay so much attention to rightwing RCP when there is an alternative at TPM?

[Mutiny In Heaven]

7. Because RCP were very close in 2008 and

because even with Gallup's traditional October Erosion, the average is Romney by a mere 0.7% (and Romney by 0.7% is almost certainly four more years of President Obama).

[boingboinh]

8. Romney is now @ 1.0% (up today)

[Jennicut]

9. RCP does not use Reuters/Ipsos tracker which is strange but hey, it's a right leaning website.

Without Gallup and with Reuters, it would be practically a tie. This comes down to the electoral college and pretty much Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and NH. Obama needs OH and IA with NH/NV or just Wisconsin.