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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:01 PM

Gallup (Thursday): Obama job rating 50/44 Plus 2 in three day average

Romney up by 7 among likely, Obama gained ground with registered, down 1, but it's the three day job numbers 50-44 that is most interesting. It could mean that Obama is gaining ground in the last three days.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

GALLUP DAILY
Oct 15-17, 2012 Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval 50%+1 Obama Disapproval 44%-1 Registered Voters

Romney48%- Obama47%+1 7-day rolling average
Likely Voters

Romney52%+1 Obama45%- 7-day rolling average

95 replies, 5509 views

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Reply Gallup (Thursday): Obama job rating 50/44 Plus 2 in three day average (Original post)
WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP
woolldog Oct 2012 #1
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #9
woolldog Oct 2012 #27
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #20
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #39
woolldog Oct 2012 #42
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #49
woolldog Oct 2012 #60
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #53
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #55
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #56
woolldog Oct 2012 #69
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #76
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #78
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #63
JRLeft Oct 2012 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #3
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #21
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #25
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #37
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #45
woolldog Oct 2012 #46
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #51
woolldog Oct 2012 #64
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #71
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #52
mzmolly Oct 2012 #62
woolldog Oct 2012 #66
S_E_Fudd Oct 2012 #73
mzmolly Oct 2012 #74
woolldog Oct 2012 #80
mzmolly Oct 2012 #82
woolldog Oct 2012 #87
mzmolly Oct 2012 #91
mzmolly Oct 2012 #92
gabeana Oct 2012 #44
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #57
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #61
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #81
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #84
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #88
S_E_Fudd Oct 2012 #4
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #14
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #19
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #24
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #32
TroyD Oct 2012 #5
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #12
Robbins Oct 2012 #26
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #29
S_E_Fudd Oct 2012 #47
calimary Oct 2012 #68
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #79
calimary Oct 2012 #67
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #6
Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #16
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #23
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #54
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #85
Robbins Oct 2012 #7
Mass Oct 2012 #13
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #15
BraKez2 Oct 2012 #35
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #33
M_Demo_M Oct 2012 #8
fugop Oct 2012 #10
Blaukraut Oct 2012 #11
TroyD Oct 2012 #17
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #18
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #22
TroyD Oct 2012 #28
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #40
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #48
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #75
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #94
budkin Oct 2012 #30
octoberlib Oct 2012 #31
mvd Oct 2012 #38
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #34
courseofhistory Oct 2012 #36
LenaBaby61 Oct 2012 #41
helpisontheway Oct 2012 #43
Jennicut Oct 2012 #58
Jennicut Oct 2012 #50
totodeinhere Oct 2012 #59
Blueprogress Oct 2012 #65
TwilightGardener Oct 2012 #70
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #72
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #77
Geedorah Oct 2012 #83
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #86
woolldog Oct 2012 #89
teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #95
totodeinhere Oct 2012 #90
CheapShotArtist Oct 2012 #93

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:03 PM

1. OMG

52-45??????

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Response to woolldog (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:06 PM

9. remember that job numbers are 3-days which could mean the last 3-days

have been good polling days for Obama. The horse race is 7-days.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:16 PM

27. ....

I understand it's a 7 day average, but that's a huge lead. This isn't looking good.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:11 PM

20. You do that a lot. Why?

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #20)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:22 PM

39. Why Do You Think?

I used to give wooldog the benefit of the doubt. Like his or favorite president , George Bush, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, won't get fooled again."

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #39)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:24 PM

42. lol

yes because I don't cherrypick favorable polls like you do

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Response to woolldog (Reply #42)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:28 PM

49. Coming From The Innumerate I Will Take That As A Compliment

I'm not the one that focuses exclusively on Gallup and ignores the dozens of state and national polls available.


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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #49)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:34 PM

60. I focus exclusively on Gallup?

Why would you make a ridiculous assumption like that?

I look at every poll that's published.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #42)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:29 PM

53. Look at this quiz

from a Dkos poster:

What pollster in 2008 found John McCain with a 10 point lead? This was the only pollster to find McCain EVER leading by more than 4.

*Who was the only pollster in October of 2004 to find Bush with an 8 point lead (on October 16th)

*What pollster in 2000 showed Al Gore with a 1 point lead on October 24th, and George Bush with a 13 point lead on october 27th?

*What pollster showed a Clinton lead going from 9 points to 25 points in 1996 in FOUR DAYS?

*What pollster showed the Generic Ballot in 2010 as +15 - 3 more than anyone else and 8 points off the final result.

Take a wild guess...

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #53)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:31 PM

55. If You Change The A To An O Does The Pollster Have The Same Name As What A Horse Does?

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #53)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:33 PM

56. You would think they would

 

Fix their methodologies. What gives?

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #53)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:40 PM

69. okay good points.

Im still incredibly disappointed in these numbers.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #69)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:46 PM

76. I'm Disappointed I Have To Waste Time Debunking Them And It Makes A Great Right Wing Talking Point.

.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #76)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:48 PM

78. Carl Rove

 

Yes, exactly. Carl Rove just said that no candidate has ever won after trailing in the GAllup by so much at this point in the election.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #20)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:36 PM

63. Because they've got no chin

 

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:04 PM

2. And Obama is down by 7 with a 50% approval rating LMFAO!

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:04 PM

3. Gallup Poll--10/26/00 -Bush*- 52% -Gore-39%

Their results then and their results now are untethered from reality.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:12 PM

21. Do you have a link?

 

I thought Gallup is a respectable poll. There is no way in hell Romney is up by 7 and attracting 52% of the vote! Not even Rasmussen has had Romney at 50%.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #21)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:15 PM

25. Here

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm


Of interest on 10/18/00 they had Bush up 50%-41%

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #25)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:20 PM

37. And the popular vote

 

ended up being about even (or was it Gore by 0.5% or something). So add around 9.5% to the current gap and you have Obama winning populare vote by about 2%, which is what Nate Silver has had all along.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #37)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:26 PM

45. "If I Didn't Have The Numbers" To Quote Karl Rove People Would Think I Am Making This Stuff Up

They were just as wrong in 1980 until they made a last minute correction and got it partially right.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #37)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:26 PM

46. Gore wasn't an incumbent.

Has an incumbent ever been this far behind, with so little time left and won?

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Response to woolldog (Reply #46)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:29 PM

51. No

 

but Obama's not this far behind! Do you really think Gallup is right and every other pollster is wrong?

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #51)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:37 PM

64. you're right

but it's still unnerving. The polls have definitely shown a strong movement TO Romney. We just aren't sure of the extent of it. The national polls that show O ahead are the non traditional polls that I never put much stock in before, IDB, Rand, etc. Can't change because they're giving me the result I like now

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Response to woolldog (Reply #64)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:41 PM

71. The other polls

 

What about Rueters and GWU? Those have given Obama a small lead. Even Rasmussen has a close race. Gallup is clearly an outlier.

Furthermore, the state polls don't show evidence of Romney winning. If Romney starts leading in Ohio, then it's time to get nervous.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #46)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:29 PM

52. According To Your Favorite Pollster, Truman Was

Next

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Response to woolldog (Reply #46)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:36 PM

62. Gore won the popular vote yet Gallup showed an 11 point lead for Bush on this day in 2000

10/18-20/00

Gore 40
Bush 51
Polled 718LV

See the link provided to you previously http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #62)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:38 PM

66. That was only a 3 day sample

with a medium sample size.

They use a difft methodology now (7 day sample with a very large sample size). Might be an apples to oranges comparison.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #66)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:44 PM

73. With the main result being

Gore showed a more rapid improvement after that...takes longer with a 7 day screen.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #66)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:44 PM

74. Let's look at seven days, then.

What compelling information below, leads you to believe you have a valid point about Gallup's accuracy?

Note Gore is the first column, Bush the second.


10/18-20/00 # 40 51 1 4 4 718LV
10/17-19/00 # 40 50 - 4 6 702LV
10/16-18/00 # 39 49 - 5 7 706LV
10/15-17/00 # 42 48 - 4 6 LV???
10/14-16/00 # 44 47 - 3 6 728LV
10/13-15/00 # 44 47 1 3 5 756LV
10/12-14/00 # 43 48 1 2 6 727LV
10/11-13/00 # 44 48 1 2 5 687LV




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Response to mzmolly (Reply #74)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:56 PM

80. Well, how do we know that Gore wasn't down 11 points on Oct 20?

Maybe he made up ground quickly? Maybe there was a big news event (Bushs DUI) that came out and changed the race and caused support to migrate to Gore.

The fact that Gore slightly won the popular vote in 2000 doesn't mean that Gallup's snapshot of the race on Oct 20, showing Bush ahead was wrong.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #80)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:01 PM

82. What we do know is that Gallup was an outlier then - and now.

I take it the other polls were more accurate then and now, as well? You're free to believe that Gallup was an accurate snapshot if you wish. I believe the evidence points in another direction.

Do yo have an agenda here, beyond supporting the President? Kinda seem to.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #82)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:10 PM

87. yea right

anyone who doesn't fall in line with automatically thinking that Gallup is wrong now that they're posting results we don't like (when these same posters have been citing it routinely this election season) has a right wing agenda.

Skinner has my personal info, he can check my registration and voting record and donation history. I don't need to prove anything to you.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #87)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:48 PM

91. It's not a matter of falling in line, it's a matter of acknowledging the fact that

they have been QUITE WRONG in the past.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #87)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 04:41 PM

92. Might want to check this out:

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #25)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:25 PM

44. looking at what you linked the polls

for most were off, who would have ever thunk that Gore would have won the popular vote

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Response to gabeana (Reply #44)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:33 PM

57. If You Would Have Looked At State By State Polls In 00 You Would Have Seen A Much Closer Race

.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #57)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:35 PM

61. Do the state polls

 

look better for Obama this year than for Gore in 2000? Obviously a race similar to 2000 would be WAY too close for comfort.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #61)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:00 PM

81. They Look Much Better This Year

But you don't have to take my word for it. You can look for yourself.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #81)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:03 PM

84. Yeah I know

 

just being lazy.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #84)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:11 PM

88. No Problem

It's obvious I'm biased. That's why I want my facts to be checked and verified.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:04 PM

4. Approval bump an early indicator?

Since it is on a 3 day roll that part of the poll could be picking up an improvement for President Obama, while the whacky results from the 7 day roll have yet to bleed out of the sample..

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Response to S_E_Fudd (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:08 PM

14. Thank you! You're the only one who seems to grasp that.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:10 PM

19. I'm Not Even Going To Try To Decipher It Because It's Crap,Ergo:

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:15 PM

24. Thanks for the link

 

2000 is weird though as ALL national polls seemed to be off. Looking at the national polls that year, you would have thought Gore has 0 chance of winning the popular vote.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:19 PM

32. Again The Poll Is Crap

But the approve/disapprove is among all adults. Who knows what it would be when the approve/disapprove is filtered to registered voters and then filtered further to likely voters.

This is just another election cycle along with 1980 and 2004 where Gallup is getting it wrong.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:04 PM

5. So Romney is up +7 today?

The Main Page says:

Romney - 52

Obama - 45

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Response to TroyD (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:07 PM

12. I don't know how many times I have to emphasize this

pay attention to the 3-day numbers--the job numbers. It could mean the last three days have seen a bump for Obama.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:15 PM

26. Well

Your probally right and when they get into the last 3 days the numbers should change.

On a side note i would advise everyone not to trn on any cable news shows since they will be going on and on about Gallup's 7 point lead for Romney.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:17 PM

29. Yeah but

 

How could Obama be trending up if they show him down 6 yesterday and down 7 today? It doesn't matter that that is a 7 day tracking. The bottom line is the final day of the poll swung for Romney.

I don't know. I just hope Gallup is way off here.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #29)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:27 PM

47. Obama improved on his job performance # and with registered voters...

So he had to have improved in both yesterday. In other words more registered voters said they were going to vote for Obama yesterday than the day before. The variable is the LV screen used by Gallup. A 1% change is an additional 27 likely voters over the previous day. There is an element of randomness in these polls.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #29)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:39 PM

68. Welcome to DU, teabaggersarestupid!

Glad you're here - and we need you! We can't afford to let this slip away!!!






Now get to work.

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Response to calimary (Reply #68)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:51 PM

79. Thanks calimary

 

Hang in there.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:38 PM

67. I think I'm gonna be sick.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:05 PM

6. DAMN

worse and worse. is the debate results going to kick in?

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:08 PM

16. Looks like it has

Look at the breakdowns

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:14 PM

23. Obama campaign has slammed Gallup's

LV model aready as bullsh*t. Others have shown they are off every election with the LV (look above for 2000 example). This is a genuine batshit poll and they have a history of that.

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:31 PM

54. Pop quiz

What pollster in 2008 found John McCain with a 10 point lead? This was the only pollster to find McCain EVER leading by more than 4.
*Who was the only pollster in October of 2004 to find Bush with an 8 point lead (on October 16th)
*What pollster in 2000 showed Al Gore with a 1 point lead on October 24th, and George Bush with a 13 point lead on october 27th?
*What pollster showed a Clinton lead going from 9 points to 25 points in 1996 in FOUR DAYS?
*What pollster showed the Generic Ballot in 2010 as +15 - 3 more than anyone else and 8 points off the final result.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #54)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:05 PM

85. good points

ill be happier to see a national poll come out with better results.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:05 PM

7. This makes no sense

Obama has a 50 percent approval rating yet lose to romey 48 to 47 among registered voters and 52 to 45 among likely voters.
That would mean Obama would lose all the swing states Is Romeny was up by 7.

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Response to Robbins (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:07 PM

13. Both samples have different time windows

approval rating has a 3 day window.
race numbers have a 7 day window.

So, all this could mean is that there is a couple of very bad days in the 4 first days of the 7 days window.

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Response to Mass (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:08 PM

15. Right.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:20 PM

35. Ita pretty obvious that

Romney had a huge outlier on one of the last 7 days, this is evident because as the older days drop off he is still gaining...once that day or days drop off you will see a swing back..

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Response to Mass (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:19 PM

33. No. Their entire model has been criticized

so why validate? Obama's pollsters have already come out against their LV model, citing their RV as historically being the more accurate predictor. Others have shown their LV to be wacked as well. Even if you look at the breakdown, Obama only +4 in the East? Riiiight. and +22 in the South would mean more then just running up red states, it would mean Florida completely red, NC, and VA gone. Not ied. Blood red. Look there is just no amount of 7 day rolling etc that remotely explains how implausible their poll is.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:05 PM

8. Any cross-tabs posted on that?

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:06 PM

10. They're just embarrassing themselves now. N/T

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:07 PM

11. Their 7 day tracker has lost all credibility at this point n/t

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:10 PM

17. Does Gallup have a Report out

Explaining why Obama is at 50% Approval (which usually means a President is re-elected) whereas their Tracking Poll contradicts that?

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:10 PM

18. LOL if Romney were +7 the map

would be all red by now. No wonder O campaign slammed Gallup. This is not even plausible.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:13 PM

22. If You Assign The Undecideds Obama Is On His Way To The Worst Loss Since 1984.

The only people who believe the Gallup Poll reflects a larger reality are either trolls or idiots.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:16 PM

28. The Problem with The Gallup Poll:

Is that while it may be inaccurate, it is the most famous pollster among the general public and will get a lot of attention.

The media will also keep referencing it, and it is keeping Romney above Obama in many of the National Averages at RCP and TPM.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #28)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:22 PM

40. OH+NV = Obama win so who cares

about the media. Obama cares about the ground game, that's where the election is.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #40)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:28 PM

48. But will those voters vote for Obama

If they think he is losing? Will they bother to vote? They might say forget it since Romney is so far ahead.

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #48)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:45 PM

75. That's pretty paranoid thinking

 

Obama supporters are voting early and often. Do you really think one polling firm will prevent people from voting?

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #75)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 05:11 PM

94. I'm worried because the media is constantly portraying Romney as the WINNER

and many people want to vote for a winner.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:18 PM

30. Hahahaha. Bullshit

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:18 PM

31. The journalists I'm following on Twitter are all making snarky comments about Gallup

Like this: Alex Yudelson ‏@AlexYudelson
At this rate, Mitt Romney will be the first candidate to have a 20 point Gallup lead and still lose the election.

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #31)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:21 PM

38. Lol

Wouldn't surprise me.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:20 PM

34. How the hell is Romney at 52%?

They need to stop oversampling the deep south, they're starting to lose credibility.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:22 PM

41. Gallup STAYS jumping the shark don't they?

HOW in hell is Rob-me up amongst and gaining with LV +7 when The President's approval numbers are gaining traction with a 50+1 number? Has Obama's debate numbers kicked in? Has the Biden debate performance kicked in?

SOMETHING'S most definitely WRONG with Gallup's polling. I'm definitely NOT a mathematician, but these Gallup numbers just DON'T jibe IMHO unless Gallup is over-sampling Southern voters AGAIN by +22 points.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:25 PM

43. I feel ill...

I was hoping Romney would at least go down one. I guess he has proved to the public that he is an acceptable alternative. So sick of the highs and lows of this campaign season. I'm afraid the state numbers will start going against Obama once the public starts viewing Romney as the winner per the media's narrative. it does not matter is Gallup is right or wrong. the voters just here that he is winning. This sucks! Stupid @ss voters.

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #43)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:33 PM

58. Gallup is but one poll of many these days.

Gallup stopped being the standard ages ago. There are so many polls out there these days and all of them contradict this.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:29 PM

50. Perhaps Gallup needs to work on that likely voter questionairre.

7 points is not mathematically possible with the state polling coming out from tons of other pollsters. Obama is also almost always ahead in registered voters in other polls. I will just look at their RV's for now on. 48% to 47% seems reasonable.

Here is what they ask to determine likely voters:

1. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, some, or only a little?

1 Quite a lot

2 Some

3 Only a little

4 None (vol.)

5 Don't know

6 Refused

2. Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote?

1 Yes, any response given

2 No

3 Don't know

4 Refused

3. Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?

1 Yes, any response given

2 No

3 Don't know

4 Refused

4. How often would you say you vote -- always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom?

1 Always

2 Nearly always

3 Part of the time

4 Seldom

5 Never (vol.)

6 Don't know

7 Refused

5. Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the election this November, or not?

1 Yes

2 No

3 Don't know

4 Refused

6. How certain are you that you will vote -- ?

1 Absolutely certain

2 Fairly certain, or

3 Not certain

4 DON'T KNOW

5 REFUSED

7. Thinking back to the elections held for Congress in November 2006, did things come up that kept you from voting, or did you happen to vote?

1 Yes, voted

2 No, did not vote

3 DON'T KNOW

4 REFUSED

Note: (vol.) = Volunteered response

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:33 PM

59. I wish we could stop obsessing over polls and just wait until the only poll

that really counts takes place on election day. Polls go up and go down and disagree with each other and I expect that to continue. Lets work for President Obama as hard as we can. That's a better use of our energy than obsessing over each and every new poll that comes out.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #59)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:37 PM

65. I agree

With early voting going in some key "swing" states. I believe polls like these are meant to energize one group and demoralize the other; not working. Yes folks, people just love the job Obama is doing, yet they are going to vote for the other guy. Puleeze. GOTV.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:40 PM

70. They approve of the job he's doing, but want the other guy. Riiiiiggght.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:42 PM

72. Outlier

The state poll are showing a different story.


Ohio
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 49, Romney 48
Obama +1


Ohio
SurveyUSA
Obama 45, Romney 42
Obama +3


Michigan
LE&A/Denno Research
Obama 44, Romney 41
Obama +3



North Carolina
Rasmussen Reports
Romney 52, Obama 46
Romney +6



Minnesota
KSTP/SurveyUSA
Obama 50, Romney 40
Obama +10



Connecticut
Hartford Courant/UConn
Obama 51, Romney 37
Obama +14


Wisconsin
Marquette University
Obama 49, Romney 48
Obama +1



New Hampshire
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 50, Romney 49
Obama +1



Nevada
LVRJ/SurveyUSA
Obama 48, Romney 45
Obama +3



Nevada
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 50, Romney 47
Obama +3



Montana
Rasmussen Reports
Romney 53, Obama 45
Romney +8



New Jersey
Neighborhood Research (R)
Obama 48, Romney 41
Obama +7



Connecticut
Siena
Obama 53, Romney 38
Obama +15



Washington
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 55, Romney 42
Obama +13

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:03 PM

83. I think the numbers will change when some bad polling days from last week are eliminated and...

the post debate bounce is factored in.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:06 PM

86. More gallup B.S.

 

A poll, using Gallup methodologies, has Romney up by 11! Give me a break!

Meanwhile, a new Politico poll has Obama up by 1. Obama may or may not be up by 1, but the race is at least close. There is no way he is trailing by 11 in VA, no way he is trailing by 7 nationally, and no way he is losing the electoral college right now!

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #86)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:38 PM

89. Can you link that politico poll showing Obama up 1?

Thanks.

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Response to teabaggersarestupid (Reply #86)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:46 PM

90. I still think that President Obama will win both the popular vote and the Electoral

College. But I do think there is some evidence that the race has tightened somewhat in the past two weeks. But having said that, Jim Messina recently said that the Obama campaign had expected the race to tighten and they have been planning for that all along. So let's not panic and lets keep working for all Democrats on the ballot.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 04:53 PM

93. No offense to OP, but this is clearly a B.S. poll that oversampled the South.

Obama is winning every other region by about 5 points and still leads the EC, but Robme is only leading in Gallup because of his 22 point lead among Southern voters. I can't believe they even showed this crap on Martin Bashir today without at least breaking it down like this.

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