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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:55 AM

Latest Presidential Polls: Obama Holds insurmountable Lead in the Electoral College

Letís start by looking at a swing state that is not in play. Michigan, a state in which Romney would have undoubtedly liked to mount a serious challenge, was abandoned by the McCain campaign in 2008. The Obama campaign has deftly pushed the perception that its administration has saved the auto industry in Detroit. Given that in the latest Rasmussen Poll has Romney trailing by 7 points, even the most adamant Romney supporter would have a hard time arguing the campaign is really competing in the state.

Looking at the broader picture, Real Clear Politics currently puts 10 swing states in play for the 2012 Presidential Election. Excluding Michigan, the states (in order of electoral size) are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada, (6), Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4).

273towin.com is a very useful site that shows electoral maps for all U.S. Presidential elections, as well as providing an interactive map that predicts the electoral college for the 2012 election. If the October 15 polls become a reality in the forty non-swing states, Obama holds a 217 to 191 edge over Romney in the Electoral College, thus leaving 130 electoral votes from the remaining ten swing states up for grabs.

273towin.com also has the latest polling for then ten swing states listed above. If the election were held today, and those polling numbers became a reality, President Obama would defeat Mitt Romney 270 to 268 in what would be the closest presidential election ever. Even with the ever-changing polls, the intricacies of the Electoral College, and the unpredictability of elections in the United States, where is Mitt Romney going to get the votes necessary to drastically change the outcome of this electoral map
...

Yet, given the state of the electoral map, the current volume of polls, the remaining political issues facing his campaign, and the path that was forced on him since the Reagan era, it is difficult to imagine a Romney victory. The fact is, in this election, the results are not about what is fair, possible, or even right, but rather what the numbers gap says is almost certain.


http://www.policymic.com/articles/16812/latest-presidential-polls-obama-holds-insurmountable-lead-in-the-electoral-college

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Reply Latest Presidential Polls: Obama Holds insurmountable Lead in the Electoral College (Original post)
courseofhistory Oct 2012 OP
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #1
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #7
bkkyosemite Oct 2012 #2
TroyD Oct 2012 #6
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #3
speedoo Oct 2012 #4
bamacrat Oct 2012 #5

Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:59 AM

1. Nothing is "insurmountable" if we don't GOTV...

...and especially not a 270-268 margin.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:41 PM

7. i agree

if romney gets the most popular votes he will win the electoral college.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:04 PM

2. The Romney clan has investments in vote machines it's got to be criminal

or at least a conflict of interest. I hope the President and DOJ are aware of this and on it. Some of the machines they have invested in are in swing states including Ohio. I hope you are correct but there is too much illegal activity going on. I wish we the people could do something about this and demand paper ballots.

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:34 PM

6. "The Romney clan has investments in vote machines"

It obviously shouldn't be allowed, and I don't think it would be tolerated in other Western countries.

It should be a major media story every day.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:15 PM

3. It's An O K Assessment Of The State Of The Race

However this is incorrect:

According to the U.S. Census, in 2011, nearly 23% of the population of Florida is of Hispanic or Latino origin. If the national trend translates over to the state level, coupled with the fact that 16.5% of the population in Florida is African-American, then you could estimate nearly 31.4% of the population are highly likely to vote for Obama (assuming they vote).


And I'm surprised somebody writing on the topic can miss the fact that Florida's Hispanic voters tend to lean more Republican because many Florida Hispanics are of Cuban origin.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:24 PM

4. I think that article is worthless.

Calling a 2 electoral vote lead insurmountable is idiotic.

For one thing, it's 270towin, not 273.

And I believe another article from that site was recently posted, that was also worthless.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:31 PM

5. 273towin? n/t

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