Nate Silver update: Polls canceled each other out today; Obama at 65.7%

[TroyD]

Gallup poll real bad for Obama. Marquette poll (WI) pretty bad for Obama. Other polls pretty good for Obama. Canceled out in forecast.

Obama 65.7% to win Electoral College in tonight's (belated) 538 forecast. Not much change from yesterday (64.8%).

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight


Updated 12:14 AM ET on Oct. 18

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Drunken Irishman]

1. That Gallup poll needs to be trashed.

[TroyD]

2. The Gallup Poll is a reality we have to deal with

It's not going away, and will continue to factor into the media narrative and the polling averages in the electoral models.

It will likely change in the days to come, but for now there is nothing we can do about it.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. It's still trash.

[fujiyama]

4. I have complained very little

because complaining is pointless, but I will say that the polls and the media narrative is incredibly destructive to substantive political discourse.

Gallup was top dog some fifty years ago when public polling was in its infancy, but they haven't proven themselves to be any more accurate than most firms out there.

[regnaD kciN]

5. Same problem with the national PPP poll...

Sure, we can point out that it would have been a small Obama lead had there not been the huge day for Romney with the Sunday stragglers, but the fact remains that there are two polls out there showing Willard up by four and six points, respectively, while every poll giving Obama a lead has it at 3.7% or smaller.

The next few days of Gallup should be interesting -- I suspect a lot of the four-point swing to Mittens over the past two days has to do with Obama's already-known big days a week ago Monday and Tuesday (when he was apparently up 50-45) dropping out of the tracker, plus at least a couple of lousy days for him late last week (when Obama's approval rating in the three-day tracker dipped below 50%). Now that his approval ratings are up, and with the suspected big Romney days due to drop off over the course of the next few, there's a pretty good chance we should see at least a partial rebound, even without factoring in a bounce from the second debate.

[TroyD]

6. Some Encouraging State Projections

WISCONSIN - 75% Obama

OHIO - 69% Obama

NEW HAMPSHIRE - 69% Obama

NEVADA - 67% Obama

IOWA - 63% Obama

COLORADO - 51% Obama

[still_one]

7. If those polls hold, and the turnout is there, we win /nt