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Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:20 PM

Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote



Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote

See this post:

Did anyone pick up on this Nate Silver tweet? Hello!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021533551

I still think Nate is underestimating the probability that Arizona is in play. I mean, this is just being addressed now? A September poll showed Romney leading by only 3 points.

Arizona (Romney +3): For the first time, we have included Arizona as a stand-alone state, and find Mitt Romney leading 48% to 45%. Romney is also winning independents in the state (47% to 42%), while President Obama is performing very well among Hispanics (58% to 28%). This represents an improvement on his result among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008, where he defeated John McCain by 15 points among that k ey group.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 Ė the big Latino vote that you didnít see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145

Nate:

Although AZ poll very likely an outlier, one scary thing for Romney is that it included Spanish-language interviews. (1/3)

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1533763

26 replies, 3033 views

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Arrow 26 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote (Original post)
ProSense Oct 2012 OP
SheilaT Oct 2012 #1
Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #3
SheilaT Oct 2012 #4
Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #6
LisaL Oct 2012 #18
budkin Oct 2012 #5
TroyD Oct 2012 #9
ProSense Oct 2012 #13
adigal Oct 2012 #22
ProSense Oct 2012 #23
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #2
ProSense Oct 2012 #7
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #8
dchill Oct 2012 #17
roguevalley Oct 2012 #10
ProSense Oct 2012 #12
roguevalley Oct 2012 #24
mshasta Oct 2012 #11
ProSense Oct 2012 #14
mshasta Oct 2012 #15
ProSense Oct 2012 #16
GoCubsGo Oct 2012 #21
Cha Oct 2012 #19
ProSense Oct 2012 #20
Major Hogwash Oct 2012 #25
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #26

Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:27 PM

1. What I find most puzzling about that chart

is that the Hispanic vote apparently makes no difference whatsoever in Texas? Really? Okay, I get it that with or without the Hispanic vote Texas as a state will go for Romney, those poor deluded fools, but doesn't Texas have a significant Hispanic population? Or am I just imagining that very long border with Mexico?

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:53 PM

3. It does make a difference in Texas.

The problem we've had in Texas is multi layered. Our Latino population does elect Democratic leaders on lower/local levels. South Texas is solidly blue, also.
However, Texas is constantly diluting the Latino vote, or attempting to, via redistricting. Also, voter intimidation/suppression attempts have an impact. If nothing else on a psychological level. We also need to do much more work GOTV down here.

Then there's the huge rural (read: Teabagger) population to contend with.

In two more presidential elections I predict Texas will be a swing state. That is if we keep fighting for our minorities right to fair representation, and against voter suppression.

We're close, but not there yet.

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Response to Lone_Star_Dem (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:16 PM

4. What I'm noticing is that the chart shows

Obama with zero percent chance to win, even including the Hispanic vote. Surely, the Hispanic vote, if it's going to Obama in Texas the way it is everywhere else, would move Obama's chance for a win there to at least two or three percent. Again, I understand why Romney will take Texas, but I'd think the Hispanic vote would mean something there.

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:39 PM

6. Ah, I see. That's just statistics.

There's been no presidential polling in Texas recently. While Obama won 44% of the vote here in 2008. Including something like 63% of the Latino vote Even with more of the Latino vote this year, there's just not enough registered Dem voters to pull a win. Thus the 0% chance.

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Response to Lone_Star_Dem (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:54 AM

18. There was a poll about a month ago.

Obama is trailing by 20 % in TX.
He doesn't have a shot in TX at all.
TX is CA in reverse.

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:16 PM

5. Texas is really not that red anymore... it will be in play by 2016

I live here and can see it all around... things are changing for the better!

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Response to budkin (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:46 PM

9. Yes, a Democrat like Hillary or someone else might be able to win Texas

Obama faces too many obstacles right now as well as prejudice etc, so it's not a state he can win, but a Democrat with Southern appeal and connections like Hillary might be able to do so.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:45 AM

13. Jimmy Carter won Texas in 1976.

Every Democrat currently faces obstacles in Texas.

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:00 PM

22. I'm confused, too

Is red for Romney? So why doesn't Arizona go up when it is adjusted for Hispanic votes? It goes from 4% Romney to 8% Romney?

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Response to adigal (Reply #22)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:27 PM

23. It's red for strong Romney and Obama's chance goes up to 8 percent. Still,

I think this is a huge underestimation.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:30 PM

2. In Colorado and Florida it makes all the difference in the world.

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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:08 PM

7. The chart shows a clear impact. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:40 PM

8. Shhh. Don't tell the Romney campaign. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:43 AM

17. It's OK - they don't intend to do any math...

'Til after the election, dontcha know...

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:50 PM

10. this is amusing. first, good on ya, Arizona. secondly, I thought the meme was hate nate, he's a

whore. Amazing, this place.

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Response to roguevalley (Reply #10)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:27 AM

12. What does this have to do with the OP? n/t

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Response to ProSense (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:26 PM

24. not much beyond a commentary about the Hate/Love Nate threads lately. 'S all.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:57 PM

11. if you think...

that Hispanics are all Catholics ready to vote...fucking wrong!!..great part of latinos are Jehovah's witnesses who believed is that they don't get involved in government issues ..and vote are one of the things that they preach not to do. fuckers!...


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Response to mshasta (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:51 AM

14. This post makes no sense.

Are you attacking Latinos or Jehovah Witnesses?

Either way, it's incoherent.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #14)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:23 AM

15. no Im not attacking latinos

I am one of them...I know that many of my people who are Hispanic -citizens they will not vote because of their religious believes and just happens that the great majority of them are Jehovah witness...

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Response to mshasta (Reply #15)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:40 AM

16. Maybe you'll be surprised.

The problem with the polling is undersampling Latinos. That's not only about participation, but also the growth in the number of Latino voters. The enthusiasm gap might be indicative of participation, but the polls aren't modeled on recent growth among Latino voters.

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Response to mshasta (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:47 AM

21. The polls are based on the opinions of registered voters.

If Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe they should not be involved in government issues, then they most likely have not even registered to vote, and are therefore irrelevant to these polls.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:59 AM

19. I was hoping for that! "The Latino Vote you didn't see

coming!" Hope it Really Surprises!

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Response to Cha (Reply #19)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:37 AM

20. They saw it coming.

Republicans spent the last two years trying to suppress the vote. The pollsters spent the last couple of years ignoring it, likely not intentional because they're relying on data from previous elections.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:33 PM

25. I don't think Nate knows what is going on in Arizona.

I have a good friend that lives in Arizona and he said that they have had it with their ignorant Governor after the last year and a half.
He said that they just went too far with their stupid "show me your papers" law that they tried to pass last year and it just made most of them more angry about it.

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Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #25)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:37 PM

26. Yeah, but can you outvote the ignorant white folks....

....who think Brewer is great?

I think Arizona is another cycle away from being a swing state. It's close, though.

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