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Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:28 PM

Romney's debate bounce is bullshit.

There are polls showing Obama gaining, and others showing him losing some ground. Let's use a Rasmussen, a right leaning poll, as an example.

Rasmussen: Obama takes lead in CO and Iowa, NH tied, still leads CT, NM, NV, PA and WI
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021507150

Did some people miss the debate? The other thing is that a number of right leaning, RW and GOP polls dropped, and no one is putting these in context. Still, where is the huge bounce?

Look at Gallup's registered voter trend:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Gallup had it tied at 47 percent Sept. 15 to Sept 21. This is after both conventions.

It climbed to a high Obama 50, Romney 44 Sept 25 to Oct 1. Why?

It was Obama 50, Romney 45 Oct 3 to Oct 9. Capturing all the post debate dates.

Now it's Obama 48, Romney 46 for both Oct 4 to Oct 10 and Oct 5 to Oct 11.

Compared to Sept 21, Obama is +1 and Romney is -1.


Reuters also shows the race leveling off, and Obama leads among registered voters. Comparing the Reuters tracking for Oct 2 through Oct 12



DAILY ELECTION TRACKING 10.02.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12040

Daily Election Tracking: 10.10.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12067

Daily Election Tracking: 10.11.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12068

Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 45% - Romney 46%
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5821



Even unreliable polls (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021515278)can't keep up the charade.

Wednesday: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Romney Up 5
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-romney-up-5

Thursday: IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Romney +1.2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251133304

Today: A Poll Is A Poll -IBD/TIPP Obama (D) 46% Romney ($) 46% -That's A Five Point Move For O In 3 Days
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251137550




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Reply Romney's debate bounce is bullshit. (Original post)
ProSense Oct 2012 OP
Blue Owl Oct 2012 #1
neverland_pirate Oct 2012 #2
ProSense Oct 2012 #7
Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #31
jillan Oct 2012 #3
neverland_pirate Oct 2012 #5
ProSense Oct 2012 #8
Tarheel_Dem Oct 2012 #10
MFM008 Oct 2012 #4
bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #6
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #9
HooptieWagon Oct 2012 #30
Cha Oct 2012 #11
powergirl Oct 2012 #12
Maeve Oct 2012 #13
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #14
ProSense Oct 2012 #15
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #24
zbdent Oct 2012 #16
Jennicut Oct 2012 #17
speedoo Oct 2012 #18
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #20
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #21
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #25
ProSense Oct 2012 #33
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #38
ProSense Oct 2012 #40
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #19
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #22
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #26
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #43
creon Oct 2012 #23
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #27
creon Oct 2012 #37
FBaggins Oct 2012 #28
ProSense Oct 2012 #32
TroyD Oct 2012 #35
ProSense Oct 2012 #36
ywcachieve Oct 2012 #29
TroyD Oct 2012 #34
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #39
ProSense Oct 2012 #41
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #42

Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:29 PM

1. Pure and simple Punditry desperation, period.

In the real world, you don't win a debate on lies.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:31 PM

2. Is Rasmussen quotable in some states and not others?

 

How does it work?

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Response to neverland_pirate (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:45 PM

7. Rasmussen is a right leaning poll with

a questionable reputation. I used them to make a point.

Look at the Florida polling from other organizations.

Florida Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

A new University of North Florida poll conducted from October 1 to October 10 shows President Obama with a four point lead over Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45


From another poll showing Romney leading by 7 points.

Likewise, Obama's lead among likely women voters in Florida fell from 15 percentage points last month to just 2 points, 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

Obama's once 11 point lead among likely independent voters had cascaded into a 13 point lead for Romney this week, 52 percent to 39 percent.

- more -

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/timesbay-news-9herald-exclusive-florida-poll-romney-51-obama-44/1255882

Seriously, some polls have shown a drop in support among women, some have not, but a 13-point drop? Any poll that shows a 24-point swing among any group is suspect.

Here's Nate Silver on that poll:

The Florida poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a good polling firm, showed Mr. Romney with a lead and was a helpful reminder of this. Mr. Obama probably does not trail in Florida by seven points. Some other polls published this week showed him with a small lead there. But there is reason to think that he has become the underdog, since Mr. Obama led in Florida by two or three points before the debates and because Mr. Romney’s bounce since then has been a little larger than that. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight forecast had flipped to calling Mr. Romney a slight favorite in Florida a couple of days ago.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation

This is not acceptable. The polling firm may be "good," but the poll is bunk!

How the hell does the disparity make sense?

Sam Stein tweets:

Whose plans do you think will do more long term harm to Medicare: Obama 54, Romney 40


this Mason-Dixen poll has 14 percent of Florida Democrats voting for Romney. i'd be surprised if that holds


"The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney" -- if that holds, obama's in real trouble

https://fr.twitter.com/samsteinhp

That number looks familiar

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: October 20 through October 21, 2008

<...>

Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.

<...>

In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obama’s 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).

Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters.

McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obama’s negatives are a bit higher than McCain’s (37%-33%).

- more -

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Fla_Mason-Dixon.pdf


Poll: Hispanics in Florida favor President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, 61-31

The Hispanic support mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate.

By Marc Caputo

Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting...according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.

Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed....this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.

<...>

But the number of Republican Hispanics has only grown 12 percent, while the number of Democratic Hispanics have increased 60 percent and no-party-affiliation Hispanic voters increased 50 percent. NPA Hispanics now outnumber Republican Hispanics in Florida.

And Hispanics are energized about voting as well, with 70 percent saying their “very enthusiastic” about voting...That’s welcome news to the Obama campaign, which has watched its support slip among non-white Hispanic whites. Obama lost the white vote 42-56 percent to John McCain in 2008 in Florida, but won Hispanics 57-42.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/v-fullstory/3034352/poll-hispanics-in-florida-favor.html






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Response to neverland_pirate (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:21 AM

31. Ramussen is good for momentum shifts, not absolute numbers

By the way, this counts as a negative post I've read from you.

the neverland_pirate negativity index for the day is now 1.

Let's see how high it gets.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:39 PM

3. I heard Chucky say something interesting (I know - shocking!) Mitt got a bounce in RED States!



So instead of winning Texas by 10 pts (for example) he's now winning it by 15.
And that is why swing states are still trending in President Obama's favor.

Makes sense to me.

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Response to jillan (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:41 PM

5. Was there any bounce in PPP in Wisconsin?

 

I forgot.

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Response to neverland_pirate (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:52 PM

8. Romney gained among Republicans.

Obama lead down to 2 in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

There's not much doubt it was Romney's strong debate performance on Wednesday night that's given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama was the winner. Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48% with a negative one. That's up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last poll.

The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.

There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election. Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and 63% of GOP voters saying they were 'very excited' to vote this fall. Now the Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of 'very excited' voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.

- more -

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-down-to-2-in-wisconsin.html

If Obama is staying steady and winning independents by the same pre-debate margin, Romney's plus is all Republicans.

Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/254707993717899264



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Response to neverland_pirate (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:20 PM

10. Interesting handle you got there. Welcome!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:40 PM

4. darn

Nate Silver has O still going down and Im sorry I dont trust rass polls, If I didnt trust them a month ago for Romney I dont trust them now. I swear it is now in who the hell knows catagory.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:45 PM

6. Excellen post! Romney's "bounce" was a "sugar high" that will be long forgotten by next week.

he had a minute in the sunshine and now it's over.

The President is clearly coming back strong and with the Biden Bump
giving him the edge going into his second debate, he has the wind
at his back. Wednesday morning will be a new ballgame altogether.

Polls that include TODAY forward in their numbers will show the Biden Bump.
And those polls aren't out yet.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:58 PM

9. I have some real skepticism over LV screens

 

It seems like a projection within a projection. Something that is very tricky to quantify for a host of reasons.

For example, what if a respondent said they were an LV, only on election day the line was too long or the kid got sick so they skipped it.

in contrast, what if a respondent who said they wouldn't vote decided to vote on election day.

I'm not saying the LV screens are wrong or a bad idea, just that they invite questions because of events and decisions in people's lives that can't be measured the day they were polled.

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Response to Floyd_Gondolli (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:05 AM

30. I don't think peeps are asked if they are LVs,

likely voters is merely a guess by the polsters.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:23 PM

11. Thanks for Some Clarity, ProSense! nm

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:26 PM

12. Thanks for laying it all out

and taking the time to put up the charts.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:36 PM

13. And a lot of the 'swing' is within the margin of error

But pundits tend to be as clueless about math and statistics as the general population....when following polls, I suggest the same thing I used to tell stock market watchers; buy Tums.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:42 PM

14. Thanks, I was waiting for this.

 

I had my doubts about Romney's big win, which looked to me like anything but, and all those polls like Pew suddenly shifting 10, 12, even 14 points on some questions? Please. And now we get the ludicrous claims that Ryan won last night's debate on smile points? Come on, how obvious does it have to be before we figure out, again, just like 2000 and 2004, that most media and polls are either in the tank for the GOP or carrying water for them in the clench? If they weren't they'd be unpaid bloggers or marginalized cranks shouting into the wind, like Olberman for instance, the guy who got replaced. Think his replacement is going to make the same mistake? Not likely.

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Response to allrevvedup (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 08:59 PM

15. The bizarre thing is

that of all the game-changing events (including the 47 percent comment), the debate is supposedly causing huge swings, but only in some polls.

If the debates are going to be huge game changers, will Biden's win, albeit mixed, have a huge impact?

Looking at the trends for Gallup and Reuters, the entire media narrative seems contrived. I mean, Romney gets a small bounce, but claiming huge swings on just the debate is absurd.

Welcome to DU.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:58 AM

24. Thank you!

 

Nice to be able to rec your posts!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:36 PM

16. When you have the "mainstream, liberally-biased media" touting loudly, first thing in the morning,

that "Romney mopped the floor with Obama" and eating his lunch, and then, in the afternoon, when nobody's really paying attention, quietly reporting that, yes, Romney "performed" better (after having practiced so much in debates, not just the past year, but for many years) but his "performance" included plenty of lies ...

what do you expect but a bounce?

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:27 PM

17. Also remember that Gallup is a 7 day tracker and still has Oct 6th to get through.



Romney had a bounce from the debate and then Obama bounced back up on the 7th and the 8th to +5 in RV's. Not sure how Obama did on the 9th through the 11th but he has to be staying with Romney to have a 3 point lead in RV's today.

Tomorrow's Gallup will have the 6th through 12th and one less day of Romney's post debate performance. Interested to see what happens when Oct 7th through the 13th is posted on Sunday.

Rand is 48% to 46% O, Reuters/Ipsos is going back down for Romney as is Tipp Online. Rasmussen is a 3 day tracker and who the hell knows with them. Obama was up one day and then below the next. Romney has a 1 point lead in the swing states in their swing state poll but that is down from 2 points.

Obama needs a game changer with the debate Tuesday but the polls are close enough that he can change their momentum.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 03:33 AM

18. Thanks, but the latest from Silver at 538 tells a different story.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Showing very strong move to Romney in all these polls today vs. Pre-debate including swing states.

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Response to speedoo (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:17 AM

20. The numbers are the numbers

I hate it, I really do.

I don't get it, but the numbers are the numbers.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #20)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:45 AM

21. Yes but whose numbers

 

is the question. For example, here are Nate Silver's numbers, from the link above:



Notice that several bigger polls show Obama ahead on Friday: Gallup, with Obama +2.0 nationally, for example, and that a lot of the Romney-ahead polls are less reputable pollsters, selected by individual state: High Point U. for example, showing Romney gaining nearly 13 points in SC. Then the numbers are further massaged by calculating for "net change," producing a pleasing palate of red, pleasing to Nate and his NYT bosses, that is. Then there's the special massaging that went into these particular polls, with "likely voters," as selected by the pollsters, getting special preference. Massage, massage, massage, and voila, a dramatic new "trendline"! Pure number magic!

Or let's just call it what it is, creative accounting of the kind that send Arthur Anderson and their famous client down the toilet.

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Response to allrevvedup (Reply #21)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:16 AM

25. dude

the right column is all red ...

We can say, well this pollster is biased here or there.

But, when pretty much ALL of the polls are trending Romney's way right now.

Not sure what good putting your head in the sand does other than make you feel better - and I am speaking about my persona experience right now, too.

I don't like it, but the debate changed the trajectory of this race SIGNIFICANTLY.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #25)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:33 AM

33. Yes, but even Nate

acknowledges this.

It might be noted that some of the state polls released on Friday were from firms that have had Republican-leaning results, and they might slightly exaggerate his standing. It is unlikely, for instance, that Mr. Romney would win New Hampshire by four percentage points right now, as implied by an American Research Group poll of the state.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-12-romney-debate-gains-show-staying-power/


Another point here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=139424

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Response to ProSense (Reply #33)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:06 AM

38. I get that

But, there are just too many polls showing the same kinds of stuff.

Again, we can say this one or that one is skewed, but the overall body of the polls pretty much shows the same thing.

Every metric, the national polls, the state polls, the polls of polls, intrade ....

All of them show that President Obama went from a slow and steady climb before the debate to a MARKED turn around after the debate.

Again, if it were today, he would win reelection by a small margin.

IF the trends continue, he probably is under water by the end of next week.

I hate it, it sickens me in the stomach, and I was where a lot of people are now initially after the debate.

But, the numbers are the numbers.

Maybe Biden/good economic numbers are stopping it now, HOPEFULLY.

But, the President HAS to perform at his absolute best Tuesday to get the trends going the other way.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #38)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:20 AM

40. But they are

"But, there are just too many polls showing the same kinds of stuff."

...right leaning polls. There hasn't been any major polls showing a dramatic shift. Even PPP's WI poll that showed the race narrowing, showed a gain among Republicans.

Obama lead down to 2 in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

There's not much doubt it was Romney's strong debate performance on Wednesday night that's given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama was the winner. Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48% with a negative one. That's up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last poll.

The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.

There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election. Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and 63% of GOP voters saying they were 'very excited' to vote this fall. Now the Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of 'very excited' voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.

- more -

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-down-to-2-in-wisconsin.html

If Obama is staying steady and winning independents by the same pre-debate margin, Romney's plus is all Republicans.

Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/254707993717899264



The major polls showed little to no shift.

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

CNN/Opinion Research

Obama 51, Romney 47

Obama +4


Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Obama 51, Romney 45

Obama +6


Colorado: Romney vs. Obama

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

Romney 48, Obama 47

Romney +1


Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Obama 47, Romney 48

Romney +1


Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

Obama 51, Romney 46

Obama +5


Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

Obama 50, Romney 47

Obama +3


Five myths about political polls

By Jon Cohen, Published: October 12

<...>

2. Polls prove that the first presidential debate upended the race.

Immediately after the debate, coverage focused on polls that moved in Romney’s direction. After all, a Gallup survey showed that 72 percent of debate-watchers said Romney did a better job, the most lopsided debate readout Gallup has ever recorded.

But there is little evidence that the debate decisively moved the needle in key swing states. In six state surveys released Thursday by two well-regarded polling partnerships — NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist and CBS-New York Times-Quinnipiac — there were virtually no shifts for either candidate compared with pre-debate polls.

Nationally, the debate effect may have quickly faded. In Washington Post-ABC News polling after last week’s face-off, voters had more positive reactions to Romney on the first two nights after the debate than on the next two. In Gallup tracking, the post-debate tally is nearly identical to what it was in the preceding days. And one new Florida poll shows momentum for Romney, but another doesn’t.

The presidential race has long been characterized as tightly competitive and voters as overwhelmingly locked-in. The first debate seems to have done little to alter these basic, well-documented story lines.

- more -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-political-polls/2012/10/12/21408264-13de-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_print.html


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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:17 AM

19. Whatever it is built on, it is real

Look, I was there right after the debate.

I thought it was a "sugar high" and was certain it would mostly recede.

But, it hasn't. It has had a very tangible effect on this race.

Our president was pulling away at the moment that debate started, we were on the verge of a fairly substantial reelection.

Whatever BS was generated about the debate, it has clearly destroyed the momentum the President had, and clearly has at the bare minimum put the race into a dead heat.

I hate to post that, but the data is overwhelming.

The swing state polls are now reflecting the national polls immediately reflected.

HOPEFULLY the VP stopped the bleeding, but there is no doubt that regardless of whatever BS framing the media will put to it, this President has to come out and have the debate of his life on Tuesday.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:55 AM

22. As real as the housing bubble maybe.

 

I saw both debates on C-SPAN, and I respectfully disagree with your account of the first one. Obama acted like a well-informed, exceptionally gracious president, and Romney behaved like Regan in the Exorcist. This was a presidential debate, not an American Idol contest. Obama outperformed Romney by miles and that was obvious to anyone with eyes.

That's the reality, and hyper-massaged "data" like Nate Silver's trendlines are in a word malarkey.

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Response to allrevvedup (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:22 AM

26. What you want to believe vs reality

See, this is the point.

You respectfully disagree with my account ot the first debate?

Your analysis is MY PERSONAL analysis.

Romney was a lying arse POS, the president was not great, but was thoughtful and truthful.

He won TO ME.

But, reality is that BO won is NOT CLEAR to everyone else.

People legitimately saw it differently, and well beyond that, the framing of it was completely different.

While it does not match reality as WE see it, the reality of the county IS different.

I don't like Silvers analysis at times, he does the good news for Rs/bad news for Ds thing like most media people.

But, he has integrity of his numbers.

They are what they are.

He is not more "massaging" them now than he was two weeks ago when bat shit republicans were screaming about it.

I hate it, it makes me sick in the gut.

But, as of today, the race is trending to Romney.

Does not mean it is his, if it were today our president likely would win a a modest victory.

But, he has the momentum at the moment like President Obama did two weeks ago.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #26)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:54 AM

43. He's shilling like the rest of them.

 

What "integrity of numbers"? Can't you see he's doing his bit for Rove's ginned-up October surprise? Do you really think that out-of-the-blue "collapse" of Obama support, when everything was going for him and as you saw yourself he did just fine in the first debate, wasn't pre-planned?

How come Silver isn't calling Romney out for cheating? How come the MSNBC clown-crew COVERED for Romney's cheating? How come there aren't a gazillion polls showing Biden mopping the floor with dumb-bell Ryan? Oh yeah, it's the weekend. Didn't stop them last time.

The reality is that the media a) are nothing close to objective, b) aren't going to give Obama any breaks from here on out, and c) won't man up to any more Dem victories like Biden's unless they absolutely have to, and that goes for their pollsters, and that goes for Nov. 6. JMHO based on the last 12 years. I understand that there's no point dwelling on a rigged system, but you might as well face the fact that US media outfits are basically PR operations of the GOP, and quit blaming the victims when they launch their big lies. You'll feel a lot better.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:57 AM

23. Obama will win

I think that Obama will win a close election.
It will be closer than 2008. Maybe as close as 2004.

The natin is evenly divided and the economy is in poor shape.

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Response to creon (Reply #23)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:25 AM

27. Yeah

the economy is actually on a clear, not major, but clear uptick at the moment.

But, I have always felt BO would win clearly, but not as big as 2008.

I think he had some good, slow momentum two weeks ago, after the conventions and the 47% tape, that lent to a bigger win, but that is clearly muted now.

Still, he has to perform, and perform WELL, Tuesday.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #27)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:47 AM

37. I agree with that.

Obama does need to perform well.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:35 AM

28. No... It isn't. And it's time to stop pretending otherwise.

(caveat - This is not to pretend that we're behind or that we will lose next month)

There is a way that the president should play this if the polls were lying and we were really still ahead by 4-5 points... And there's a way that he needs to respond if the "bounce" is real and we have a race on our hands.

What states should ad buys focus on? What issues should get the President's stump speech priority? What down-ballot races can he spend time on outside of battleground areas?

We were four touchdowns up in the third quarter but we threw an interception for a touchdown and then fumbled the kickoff return and gave up another seven points. Now they've recovers an onside kick and are in the red zone with ten minutes left to play.

Its ok to say that momentum has shifted ... because it has. The game isn't lost... We still have a lead... But we need to play like we need to regain the momentum... Not pretend that it never really happened.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:30 AM

32. Oh please, cut the crap

The polls are currently being skewed by plethora of RW and fly-by-night polls (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021530460). Others, including Gallup and Reuters show no real movement.

Although Nate Silver factors in these polls, he even admits they're right leaning.

It might be noted that some of the state polls released on Friday were from firms that have had Republican-leaning results, and they might slightly exaggerate his standing. It is unlikely, for instance, that Mr. Romney would win New Hampshire by four percentage points right now, as implied by an American Research Group poll of the state.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-12-romney-debate-gains-show-staying-power/

A lot of right-leaning polls dragging down the averages. It's impossible to get an accurate picture of the race from mostly right-leaning polls.

Now for comparison to 2008 (and remember the dynamics were completely different), leads that translated into wins are now seen as close because people are comparing them to the winning margin and not the poll margins. The poll margins showed a completely different picture. Note for example OH and WI. The margins weren't as big as they are now.

Battleground polling snapshot: Romney regresses

by kos

The current numbers are from the TPM polling composite. The four-year-ago numbers are from exactly four years ago, or Oct. 3, 2008. The final '08 margin—a new column on this chart—is the final vote results.



As some of you might quickly notice, Missouri is back on the chart! That 4.7-point Romney advantage feels big and difficult to overcome, right? Well, Romney faces equally daunting or bigger deficits in five of the remaining contested states. No one really thinks Missouri will turn Blue this year, and no one is spending money on the presidential race. So the fact that it is closer than states that Romney is spending millions in is pretty darn hilarious.

It also gives Romney another state in which he's above the 45s—one of just two in this list of 10 states plus the national composite.

North Carolina, by the way, was a slight Obama lead yesterday in the composite, until a new Rasmussen poll this morning turned it Red again. As it's pretty obvious at this point, the state will come down to GOTV.

Every time I plug new numbers into this chart for this feature, I think, "Lookit that, Romney is going backwards again!" I decided to see if my perception was reality, so I compared Romney's level of support in the polling composite to what he was receiving a little over a month ago:

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/03/1139351/-Battleground-polling-snapshot-Romney-regresses



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Response to FBaggins (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:38 AM

35. FBaggins is right

And there's really no point in posting all of these 'Romney's bounce is fake' threads. It's real. (Romney is still ahead of Obama in Rasmussen this morning - just saw the new number).

Romney had the game changer he needed. Normally debates don't matter - this one did.

It's time to stop pretending the Romney bounce is fake and fight back!

Joe Biden did it the other night - and everyone else better join him!

Remember the SUPREME COURT!

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Response to TroyD (Reply #35)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:42 AM

36. Right, just

And there's really no point in posting all of these 'Romney's bounce is fake' threads. It's real. (Romney is still ahead of Obama in Rasmussen this morning - just saw the new number).

Romney had the game changer he needed. Normally debates don't matter - this one did.

It's time to stop pretending the Romney bounce is fake and fight back!

Joe Biden did it the other night - and everyone else better join him!

...ignore the facts (http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=139424 http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138192) and pretend Biden's peformance is going to have a huge impact.

VP debate looks like a draw in the swing states where we launched polls tonight. Not a game changer either way

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/256921223957708802



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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:45 AM

29. I don't look at polls. But I came here to say this.

The only poll that matters is November 6th. So instead of all of the agonizing poll watching, it would behoove everyone to be out making sure we get every Democrat and other Pres. Obama supporters registered and voter ready.
Poll stalking only makes you crazy. Most of the time they are not even close to being right.
The only poll we can count on is the poll on November 6th.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)


Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:09 AM

39. Pro Sense, You Know I Love You

I think it would be fair to say there has been some slippage in the president's horse race position. However we don't know how much slippage there is because of the abundance of Republican hack polls. I think the slippage isn't nearly as large as the average of polls suggest because the average of polls has been tainted by the introduction of biased pollsters.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #39)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:29 AM

41. I'm not

"I think it would be fair to say there has been some slippage in the president's horse race position. However we don't know how much slippage there is because of the abundance of Republican hack polls."

...stupid enough to think Romney gained nothing from the massive gushing over the debate. You're making my point, but in addition, I'm saying the massive shift is bullshit. For example, there are some polls showing a huge swing among women, and none of the major polls showed such a shift. The CNN Ohio poll had Obama up 20 among women.

More points: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138192#post41

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Response to ProSense (Reply #41)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:32 AM

42. We Will Have A Much Better Idea Of The State Of The Race On Monday When There Will Be A Poll Dump

And an even better idea of the state of the race a week from Monday when all three debates are factored in.

I'm concerned but far from panicking. The fundamentals still favor the president.

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