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Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:10 PM

Nate Silver Breaks Down Swing State Polls 10/12/12

He also says while Obama still has a swing state firewall it is somewhat brittle. No new Forecast yet.



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation/#more-35900

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Reply Nate Silver Breaks Down Swing State Polls 10/12/12 (Original post)
courseofhistory Oct 2012 OP
TroyD Oct 2012 #1
flamingdem Oct 2012 #2
budkin Oct 2012 #3
flamingdem Oct 2012 #5
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #4
flamingdem Oct 2012 #7
adigal Oct 2012 #8
BluegrassDem Oct 2012 #6

Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:11 PM

1. One of the problems is that as usual, the Right-wing got their numbers out first



The majority of the swing state polling right now is being done by Republican-leaning firms like ARG, Gravis & Rasmussen, and to some extent, Mason-Dixon. They are taking up a lot of the polling space at RCP's main page and in Nate's model this week.

For whatever reason, the other pollsters have not been as voluminous in getting their polls out. So we haven't had very many from PPP, SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac etc.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:15 PM

2. Yesterday calling into CO from CA was a bummer

all Repukes but for a couple of strong Obama supporters and complaining that they're getting way too many calls!

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:18 PM

3. I thought you only call registered Democrats?

You were calling Republicans?

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Response to budkin (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:20 PM

5. I know but with this program there were Republicans

and it would say what they were and it said Republican with "R" or undeclared etc.

Maybe I misunderstood the "R" but it was Republicans. Who knows maybe the system was messed up! It kept crashing.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:19 PM

4. Romney needs momentum

He is at his peak now. To win he needs momentum. The Senate is still holding for Dems so that means Romney's support is very soft. Basically Obama needs to control the narrative again. The fact that Romney does not seem to be helping downticket says a lot. 3 1/2 weeks is a LONG time. Better to have Romney up now than later.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:21 PM

7. Let's hope it's all downhill for them now

the faster the better!

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:31 PM

8. I would much rather be in our shoes

than their's.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:21 PM

6. I'm sick of all these right wing polls flooding the media

It's like a coordinated bomb on the media with all these polls to give the appearance of Romney slamming Obama, and it's not the case.

When I start hearing chatter of Chicago HQ getting concerned, then I'll get worried. If Plouffe, Messina, and Axelrod feel like they got a grip, I'm not gonna lose any sleep.

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