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Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:24 PM

A Poll Is A Poll -IBD/TIPP Obama (D) 46% Romney ($) 46% -That's A Five Point Move For O In 3 Days

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx



It was 49 R 44 O on Tuesday:


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm

49 replies, 3548 views

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Arrow 49 replies Author Time Post
Reply A Poll Is A Poll -IBD/TIPP Obama (D) 46% Romney ($) 46% -That's A Five Point Move For O In 3 Days (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP
fugop Oct 2012 #1
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6
still_one Oct 2012 #7
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #10
Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #11
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #20
Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #49
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #4
FBaggins Oct 2012 #16
TroyD Oct 2012 #17
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #22
fugop Oct 2012 #23
bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #3
FBaggins Oct 2012 #5
fearnobush Oct 2012 #12
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #25
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #8
TroyD Oct 2012 #14
fugop Oct 2012 #18
TroyD Oct 2012 #9
fugop Oct 2012 #15
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #19
writes3000 Oct 2012 #26
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #28
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #41
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #43
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #29
FBaggins Oct 2012 #32
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #36
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #42
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #40
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #45
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #34
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #47
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #48
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #13
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #21
TroyD Oct 2012 #24
budkin Oct 2012 #27
fugop Oct 2012 #31
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #39
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #38
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #30
Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #33
ProSense Oct 2012 #35
FBaggins Oct 2012 #37
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #46
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #44

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:27 PM

1. I'm kind of speechless.

Seriously, what the hell is up with the polls this year? I mean, don't get me wrong. I'll take this one. Nice for a goodie that shows a nice Obama swing. But is it just me, or is anyone else feeling totally jerked around by pollsters? They're all over the map. Maybe just because we're a month out, but wow. I just don't remember so many fast shifts and weird changes in the last few elections.

But I'm loving this one. It's nice to have one to counteract Gallup today. Now let's hope Biden Unleashed actually did some good - if not through the debate, than at least in changing the narrative.

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Response to fugop (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:31 PM

6. Beside Pew All These Polls Are Bumping Around The MOE And Even Pew Was Barely Outside It

I will take happy news where I can find it.

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Response to fugop (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:31 PM

7. Two things the callers are jerking around the pollsters, or the clueless people really do not know

Where Romney/Ryan stand, and just found out that roe v wade will be overturned, the supreme court will have people like Scalia, and social security and Medicare will be privatized, and they are getting nervous, not including this war mongering talk

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Response to fugop (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:33 PM

10. Actually most of the polls were pretty consistent up to the first debate

in showing a small but consistent Obama lead in the national polls and a bigger one in the swing states.

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Response to fugop (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:34 PM

11. Maybe they just can't figure out the LV model

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:28 PM - Edit history (1)

And I mean that seriously. How many times has a candidate been up so consistently with RV, but fallen badly enough that it could change the outcome with ' likelys'?

I dare say that knowing your vote could be that much more important than usual could completely throw the models come election day, especially given amount of young voters whose absence is assumed.

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Response to Mutiny In Heaven (Reply #11)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:39 PM

20. Pollsters think that LV are white women in their 50s, with a comfortable income, and conservatives.

They have no freakin' clue about the legions of people in their 70s that I see with Obama stickers on their cars.... or the folks that don't have home phones, or those that will wait in line 10 hours to vote for the President after taking a bus to the polling place.

People are freaking out about the NEW polls that feature Likely Voters, which were not pushed much in the beginning. The media needs a horse race...

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:34 PM

49. Yep.

Now, I know they were close to the money in 2008 - who couldn't be?! The excitement was palpable, but at the same time, the assumption is that a lopsided proportion of first-time voters last time around will sit this one out. I say that they're off the mark.

This will be an extremely close contest and, given Romney's huge advantage in the South, as it stands I think he'll win the popular vote. That stands to change, because there's a great deal of soft support out there, but that's purely my supposition based on a snapshot of this moment in time.

However, 2010 saw Democrats outperform the polling average in all seven 'toss-up' races. If Obama outperforms the current data in Ohio, Virginia and Nevada, it's over. He wins.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:27 PM

2. Actually Obama is up by .7 percent

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:30 PM

4. Noticed But Statisticians Suggest Rounding Because A Poll Can Never Achieve That Level Of Accuracy

.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:36 PM

16. Rounding can introduce its own issues.

Think of the gallup poll shortly after the first debate. IIRC, They had two-point swings (back and forth) three days in a row.

In a 7-day tracking poll, that hints that there was a 14-point swing between the day that dropped off and the new polling day (and it caused a few people here to assume that some events had much larger impacts than they really did).

Had Gallup reported the numbers as (made up) 46.7% (O) - 47.4% (R) changing to 46.3%(O) - 47.5% (R) instead of 47/47 chaning to 46/48 - then fewer people would have been confused.

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:36 PM

17. 'Actually Obama is up by .7 percent'

Does that translate into the 5-point shift referenced in the OP?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #17)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:40 PM

22. It Was 49% -44% On Tuesday

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Response to TroyD (Reply #17)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:40 PM

23. No. Two days ago in this poll Romney was ahead by 5.

It was R - 48.7 to O - 43.7 on 10/10. It shifted closer yesterday, and now Obama is up a bit today. I think that's the five point swing in two days.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:29 PM

3. I'd say that Romney's bounce just turned into an Obama bounce

The President's numbers will continue to improve over the weekend and by the time
the next debate is over, Obama will have a noticeable lead.

The President will deal the knockout blow the following Monday. Romney will
not be able to recover and he will create several gaffes in an desperate
attempt to change the trajectory of the race.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:30 PM

5. I think they got the 2008 gap correct down to the tenth of a percent.

Yes, they're noisy and a five point movement in two days on a 7-day tracker isn't possible without it showing up in other polls...

... but I will take what I can get!

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:34 PM

12. I believe they started the day of debate

So today Would mix out their most caustic numbers. Either way, it's a huge move on the upside but we've Got a lot work to do to get back what we lost.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:46 PM

25. If Republicans Continue To Lose The Non White Vote 80%-20% In Nat'l Elections

How many more cycles before they end up a beleaguered minority, like the Afrikaners?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:32 PM

8. The only region Romney leads in is the South

Take the South out and the race is 49-40 for Obama (Romney leads by 12 in the south). The president is doing well in the Northeast. The race is tied in the Midwest and Obama is underperforming, but still leading by 9, in the west. I think Biden's solid debate will help and Obama will reassure others next week.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:34 PM

14. Nate Silver: Oct. 11 - Obama's Swing State 'Firewall' Has Brittle Foundation

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:38 PM

18. Yep ...

I think the margin is so ridiculous in the South that it throws everything. I thought that would happen last time, but I guess I really hoped that once the scary black man was in the White House, people would realize the color of his skin doesn't make him a monster.

Clearly, I was wrong. They know they're a dying breed, and they're fighting with everything they've got for that last victory on behalf of bigotry everywhere. I sure hope they don't get it.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:32 PM

9. Certainly hope we see a rise in the National polls - Nate Silver just called Obama's numbers 'awful'

Says a Democratic Senate & a Romney win is now 'very plausible'



https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

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Response to TroyD (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:36 PM

15. Eh ...

He's talking about what's happened to the numbers. Clearly, they've been bad all week. That being said, he's still ahead in important states, so unless Nate's talking about something that's coming it, I think he's just saying what we all know.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:38 PM

19. Nate and the rest of us need to take it easy and see where we are

1) after the VP debate and 2) after Obama's second debate next week. Obama's numbers are not awful--it depends on the poll. We had a lot of good news yesterday with CBS and NBC polls but today with RAS & especially ARG (how reputable are they?) it looks a little different. Is Obama up in Virginia by 6 as CBS says or down by 3 as Ras says?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:48 PM

26. Consistently bringing DU down whenever there is good news.

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Response to writes3000 (Reply #26)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:51 PM

28. Good Catch

He's on my radar.

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Response to writes3000 (Reply #26)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:07 PM

41. Yep...nt

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #41)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:10 PM

43. That Clown Isn't Fooling Anybody

.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:52 PM

29. Why do you keep posting what Nate says?

He's proven this week more than any how irrelevant he is on the whole matter. He doesn't know any more about this race than you and I and it's been pretty clear with how erratic his model has been the past two weeks.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #29)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:56 PM

32. Because he's one of the best in the business.

it's been pretty clear with how erratic his model has been the past two weeks.

The real world race has been very fluid the last couple weeks. An accurate model would reflect that.

I caution you to go back to posts from 2010 that also claimed that Silver and Charlie Cook were hacks who didn't know what they were talking about.

If anything, they both turned out to be slightly too optomistic.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #32)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:01 PM

36. I Was In The Reality Camp In 04 And 010 When Reality Wasn't Kind To Us

I had battle royals with TIA and his happy polls and prognostications, much to the chagrin of him and many DUERS. But this race feels different. I still think the fundamentals favor the president.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #32)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:08 PM

42. Why is he the best in the business?

Has he predicted something most people weren't predicting? Because I'm well aware of the mood in 2008 and 2010 and I think we all knew, going into election day, that Obama was going to win the presidency and then, two years later, Republicans were going to have a very strong night. What Nate has done is no more accurate than every political talking head out there. They all said Obama would beat McCain in a landslide and most were predicting a very good night for the Republicans in '10.

Like I said ... he has absolutely no insight into where this race could go. He talks about his model and how great it is, but it's clear his model is absolutely invested in polls and well, who the hell needs Nate to tell us what we're reading by looking at the polls?

Look, Nate is overrated. Last week, before the debate, his model put Obama sailing through reelection. A week later and now he's suggesting Obama might lose. Great. But that just reinforces my view ... he's got about as much insight as anyone else. We all know, without Nate telling us, that Obama took a hit. We all know, today, that Obama is doing worse than he was at the start of last week.

So...why should what he says have any more influence than what the polls are already saying? We know he'll flip and flop with whatever direction the polls take ... so, shouldn't we just cut out the middle man and look at the polls themselves?

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #29)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:06 PM

40. Troy has been worrying, worrying, worrying...nt

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #40)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:15 PM

45. He's Worried Romney Might Lose

.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:58 PM

34. I Have My Own Poll

Does that bit of information make you

a) Ecstatic
b) Very Happy
c) Happy
d) A Little Happy


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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #34)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:23 PM

47. LOL

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #47)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:25 PM

48. Welcome To DU

And hopefully we get to shate many more laughs.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:34 PM

13. I can read latest polls just like Nate Silver

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:39 PM

21. Well Now

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:45 PM

24. 'Romney held on to his edge among the key independent voting bloc, with a 19-point advantage.'

YIKES!



Why is Romney doing so well with Independents, and can this be changed over the next 4 weeks?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #24)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:48 PM

27. I think it was the independents that were drawn to him after the debate... but they'll come back

As soon as Obama whips some ass on Tuesday.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #24)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:55 PM

31. Because a majority of independents are just embarrassed Republicans. n/t

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Response to fugop (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:05 PM

39. Many Pukes Are Now Calling Themselves Independents

.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #24)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:04 PM

38. As An "Independent" For Romney Can You Please Share With Us What Attracted You To Him?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:53 PM

30. I also don't think that Obama is leading by only 4 among Jewish voters.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:56 PM

33. What time does ipsos post?

Anyone know. Looks like they poll on day they release the data...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:59 PM

35. This poll is completely unreliable.

(Hack) Poll Shows Romney Leading Obama among Jews
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021515278

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Response to ProSense (Reply #35)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:02 PM

37. No need to look a gift poll in the mouth.

I don't so much mind a poll showing a national Obama lead right now... even if it doesn't make much sense (the poll... not the lead).

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #37)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:18 PM

46. Rass,Gallup, And TIPP Are All Well Within The Margin Of Error

This polls is a tad bit kinder to us. That's all...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:13 PM

44. If Obama does well in the next two debates, we've got this.

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