Times/Bay News 9/Herald exclusive Florida poll: Romney 51%, Obama 44%

[smorkingapple]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/timesbay-news-9herald-exclusive-florida-poll-romney-51-obama-44/1255882

Barack Obama's lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead, according to a new Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll.

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That's a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a "bad night" at the first debate.

outlier for sure, but it shows how much damage that debate did....

[MotherPetrie]

1. But but but... Obama didn't DARE ask Romney about the 47%

Romney might have been PREPARED for him to ask about it!

[magical thyme]

41. What Obama didn't do was refute the Medicate lie

that Romney apparently repeated 5 times. Obama did not cut benefits by $700B and should have said that loud and clear. They cut $700B in fraudulent payments to providers, not benefits. He should have made clear that he did not cut benefits by one penny.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. If it's an outlier, how does it show the damage the debate did?

I guess I don't understand your logic. You concede it's an outlier, which means it's probably wrong ... so, taking anything from this poll, any type of opinion, would be pointless. If it's an outlier, the poll is near-rubbish ... and, as you said, it does appear to be an outlier.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. This person has posted anything but negative polls and threads. Nothing to see here...

[graham4anything]

3. Obama is going to win 70% of the Hispanic vote

yet this poll states-sure, tell me about it.

"Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points. The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney, though the margin of error is higher with that smaller group of voters."

[speedoo]

8. That part of the poll SCREAMS outlier. nt

[ProSense]

13. So does this:

Likewise, Obama's lead among likely women voters in Florida fell from 15 percentage points last month to just 2 points, 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

Obama's once 11 point lead among likely independent voters had cascaded into a 13 point lead for Romney this week, 52 percent to 39 percent.

Seriously, some polls have some a drop in support among women, some have not, but a 13-point drop? Oh, and any poll that shows a 24-point swing among any group is suspect.

[fugop]

11. Holy crap, again?

Boy, I can't wait until Obama wins this election soundly with all the underrepresented demographics showing up and turning the polling community upside down and inside out!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. The President Will Win The Hispanic Vote In Florida But Not As Large As Nation Wide

South Florida Cubans lean Republican but there are a lot of Puerto Ricans and Dominican in Central Florida who lean Democratic.

[still_one]

5. What it shows is the hysterical media hype saying it was such a disaster, and people falling in

Line to that view

The stupidity of the people in this country never fails to amaze me

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. WELCOME TO IGNORE!!

[TexasCPA]

7. The sky is falling

Wait. We are ahead in NV, IA, NH and OH. Who cares about FL?

[hrmjustin]

25. marist which is a much better poll has us ahead in Fl too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. He's Also Ahead In A Poll Taken By University Of North Florida

.

[Thrill]

9. So we're supposed to believe Mittens wins the Hispanic vote there?

.

[davidn3600]

37. It's different in Florida...There is a high Cuban-American population

They still won't forgive the Democrats for the Bay of Pigs and think the party is too weak against the Cuban government.

Marco Rubio is also quite popular with this bloc.

[obamanut2012]

10. .....

[MjolnirTime]

12. nice try, troll

[BluegrassDem]

14. Obama was only up 1 point in this same poll at the height of his covention bounce

So that gives you a hint that this polls is slanted towards Romney.

[TroyD]

28. Good historical perspective

Now we need to admit that Obama was damaged by the debate - we can't fool ourselves.

No more taking things for granted from this point on.

Romney may indeed have moved into the lead in Florida (Nate Silver has switched Florida from leaning Obama to leaning Romney this week).

But this poll is out of whack with the 2 polls yesterday that showed small Florida leads for Obama.

[richmwill]

15. Mason-Dixon Poll? (snicker)...

Might as well be a "Rush Limbaugh Audience Poll"...

[adigal]

16. If Romney wins Florida and the election

I hope the seniors enjoy their increase in healthcare costs.

Really, ow stupid is our country to flip like that over one 90 minute pack of lies? We deserved the govt we get.

[TroyD]

17. This poll apparently oversampled Cuban voters

From what I am reading on Twitter.

[LP2K12]

23. Did they think...

They were voting for Marco Rubio?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. See Post Twenty Two

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Don't Like This Call,Errrrrr,tnhread

[tarheelsunc]

19. OK, the polls are getting worse and worse. Romney winning the Hispanic vote?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Heard He's Winning The Jewish And African American American Vote Too...Let's All Jump Together

[hrmjustin]

20. Oh the end is near how can we go on.

the poll sucks and is not taken seriously. don't worry about it my friend. welcome to DU

[EmeraldCityGrl]

21. Scary,scary meaningless numbers...must be Halloween time. n/t

[TroyD]

26. If Obama has indeed lost support with women to Romney

Then it's time the Obama campaign start drawing attention to stories like this:

Mitt Romney's Shameful Record with Mormon Women

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/geoffrey-dunn/mitt-romney-mormon-women_b_1956568.html

[octoberlib]

29. Maggie Haberman of Politico.com just posted an article on this poll.

Basically it's a bunch of crap. Just more Republican psychological warfare. http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/new-florida-poll-claims-big-swing-for-romney-138195.html?hp=l1

[budkin]

31. Hahahahahahahah

No.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Freak Out

[smorkingapple]

33. Jesus folks, do the pom poms and cheerleading outfits complete with the skirts ever come off here?

There's no way Romney has a 7 point lead in Florida so this is an outlier.. I have no problem saying that... I still think FL goes Obama.

But the fact that you have at least one poll showing such a lead after Obama was leading Florida in almost all polls leading up to the debate doesn't show the damage the debate did?

Are we serious? If you can't recognize the reality on the ground, which is that significant leads Obama held have now evaporated for the most part and that we're now in a dogfight, I just can't call it.

Listen, if you want your nipples rubbed all the time on this board, I'm sorry, I'm definitely not your poster.

[oswaldactedalone]

34. If this poll

showed Obama up 7, we'd be shouting from the rooftops about how credible the pollster is and how the internals were just perfect. This poll is bad news if only because it keeps up the narrative of Robme's momentum.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. There Were Three FL Polls Released In The Last Forty Eight Hours

One shows the president with a four point lead, another shows the president with a one point lead, and another shows the president seven points behind.

Why can't we look at all of them and make a conclusion?

[TroyD]

36. Unfortunately Nate has now added it to his model:

Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[ProSense]

39. Oh well, let them, and

let people continue freaking out. Look at the polls for Florida over the last three weeks. Except for this poll and two other right leaning polls, including Rasmussen, it's a field of blue.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

[smorkingapple]

42. This is the same poll I referenced. People here claiming it's shit but Nate weights it highly...

[davidn3600]

38. I've been telling people for ages not to rely on Florida and it's kooky politics

This state elected two years ago Rick Scott and a veto-proof GOP legislature, two years after going for Obama....and before that it went for Bush twice.

That tells you how this state can swing wildly. Florida is NOT in the bag for either candidate right now. It is a toss-up.

Ohio is the key. If Obama loses Ohio, I guarantee that he will lose Florida and North Carolina too. Win Ohio and it makes Florida much less important.

[ProSense]

40. Poll: Hispanics in Florida favor President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, 61-31

Poll: Hispanics in Florida favor President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, 61-31

The Hispanic support mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate.

By Marc Caputo

Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting...according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.

Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed....this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.

<...>

But the number of Republican Hispanics has only grown 12 percent, while the number of Democratic Hispanics have increased 60 percent and no-party-affiliation Hispanic voters increased 50 percent. NPA Hispanics now outnumber Republican Hispanics in Florida.

And Hispanics are energized about voting as well, with 70 percent saying their “very enthusiastic” about voting...That’s welcome news to the Obama campaign, which has watched its support slip among non-white Hispanic whites. Obama lost the white vote 42-56 percent to John McCain in 2008 in Florida, but won Hispanics 57-42.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/v-fullstory/3034352/poll-hispanics-in-florida-favor.html

How does Mitt win Hispanics by 11 points?

[ProSense]

43. For your enjoyment:

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: October 20 through October 21, 2008

<...>

Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.

<...>

In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obama’s 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).

Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters.

McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obama’s negatives are a bit higher than McCain’s (37%-33%).

- more -

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Fla_Mason-Dixon.pdf