Do you think it's likely Obama wins the electoral college ... but loses the popular vote?

[Drunken Irishman]

Will the polls converge so this doesn't happen? If they don't, if Obama wins 270 or more electoral votes, but loses the electoral college, does that taint his win like it did Bush's in 2000?

Or do you think it won't happen? I have a hard time believing Obama will win Ohio, Virginia and a few other swing states yet lose the overall popular vote. But polls suggest, at least right now, that's possible...

[Vincardog]

1. In a word - "no".

[robinlynne]

2. Bush did not win in 2000. That was a coup. Gore won both the electoral and the popular vote.

[notadmblnd]

3. No.

[Proud Public Servant]

4. It could happen, sure

Obama's been putting all his money/time into swing states, as has Romney. So here's the formula: swing state turnout is high because it's where the campaign is happening, and red state turnout is high because Obama Derangement Syndrome gets people to the polls, but but blue state turnout is low for whatever reason (voter ID laws, complacency, etc.). Under those circumstances, it's imaginable.

[ncav53]

5. It's possible given that many people in the red states really hate Obama

He'll most likely win both though.

[SteveG]

9. That's my view as well

Obama is really hated in the Deep South, I would not be surprised if he poll's less than 30% in those States.

[morningfog]

6. No. He'll win both.

[WI_DEM]

7. No. Obama will win both the popular and electoral vote.

[TroyD]

8. Here's what Nate Silver just posted:

We have Obama at 63.5% to win popular vote but 66.8% to win Electoral College. Not a huge difference but as big as we've had it all cycle.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight